Dean Says Either Clinton or Obama Must Drop Out in June

[tekisui]

WASHINGTON - Democratic Party Chairman Howard Dean said Monday that either Hillary Rodham Clinton or Barack Obama must drop out of the Democratic presidential race after the June primaries in order to unify the party by the convention and win the election in November.

But Dean didn't say which candidate should drop out, only that it should happen after primary voters have been to the polls.

"We want the voters to have their say. That's over on June 3," Dean said in an interview on ABC's "Good Morning America."

Dean also said that while the party rules say Democratic superdelegates can wait until the party's August 25 convention to make up their minds, that would be too late to unify the party and defeat the presumptive Republican nominee, John McCain.

"We really can't have a divided convention. If we do it's going to be very hard to heal the party afterwards," Dean said. "So we'll know who the nominee is and that'll give us an extra 2 1/2 months to get our party together, heal the wounds of having a very closely divided race and take on Senator McCain."

Dean said he won't have to tell either Clinton or Obama when it's time to leave the race.

"Either of these candidates, if it's time for them to go, they'll know it and they will go," Dean said. "They don't need any pushing from me. You know when to get in and you know when to get out. That's just part of the deal."

"This is not about Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama," Dean added. "This is about our country. It's about a better course for our country. ... We've got to move on and win the presidency."

Obama has more delegates and popular votes than Clinton, but she is also fresh off a big-state win in Pennsylvania.

Dean said that "none of the so-called party elders I talked to" think the contest should go until the convention. "I agree with that," Dean said.

"We've got nine more primaries ... Five hundred of the 800 unpledged delegates have already said who they are for. The remaining 300 will do that by the end of June and we'll know who our nominee is and that's what we need to do," Dean said on NBC's "Today" show.

link: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080428/ap_on_el_pr/democrats_dean;_ylt=AtlQ5L73gNH5ZmFsAHnHJZOWwvIE

[NJSecularist]

1. Dean can say whatever he wants.

It doesn't matter. If the supedelegates gravitate to Obama in June, Hillary will still take this to the convention and get the credentials committee to hear her case before she ever drops out. Superdelegates are "soft" support and they can change their minds at any time.

[tekisui]

4. It sounds like HIllary won't do that.

She won't have the support to. Sure, SD's can change, but if they come out solidly for Obama, she won't have the support to take it to the Convention.

And if she did, she would be ending her political career and sinking Bill's legacy.

[NJSecularist]

8. Those are your assumptions. They are not facts

Don't be surprised when it happens.

Hillary will take her case to the credentials committee before they ever drops out.

[Radio_Lady]

11. Question in my mind is: What about Michigan and Florida?

They can't be happy about the outcome of their "breaking the rules."

[tekisui]

12. How sad.

To what end? Let's say she takes it to the Credentials Committee, which BTW, they are holding a hearing and making a decision on May 31st. Let's say the CC decides to seat FL as is, and works something out on MI.

Then what? Where does she go from there? If the Supers are supporting Obama to the tune of 2025+, and she does not have the support to win it, then what?

She would take it to the Convention and lose on the first and only ballot.

[NJSecularist]

14. They are making no decisions on May 31st.

They are simply holding a hearing. It will be the first time the Credentials Committee meets officially.

Hillary has to make the case from the last primary on June 3 to late August that Obama is unelectable. Can she do it? Who knows. But until the credentials committee hears her case at the convention, she will not drop out. Superdelegates can change their minds at will, and that is what Hillary is counting on, especially if she can make the media narrative over the summer about how Obama is unelectable.

[tekisui]

18. That argument won't fly with the SD's.

Barring an indictment of Obama, he is viewed as very electable. Far more so than Hillary. SD's will have to only look at the delegate count and the support Obama has to know that he is plenty electable.

[NJSecularist]

19. The primary season isn't over yet.

And you cannot tell me conclusively what every superdelegate feels, or what the majority of superdelegates feel at this point, and especially when this primary season is over. We still have West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico to go and those states will start to call into question Obama's electability.

[tekisui]

20. It won't.

He has the delegate count in a lock. He has the popular vote in a lock. He has already proven his electability. WV and KY will not go Blue in this election or probably the next 4 elections, at least. Puerto Rice has zero electoral votes in the General Election.

I stand by my statement. Barring and indictment, Obama has proven that he is more electable, and the SD's will break for him. Just look at the SD count since SuperTues.

[NJSecularist]

21. West Virginia will go blue if Hillary is the nominee.

He does not have the popular vote in a lock.

You can keep reassuring yourself that Obama is a lock for the nomination, but it simply isn't true.

[tekisui]

22. McCain hasn't locked the GOP nom. either.

[msallied]

17. If Obama has won the majority of the pledged delegates and the

popular vote by then, good look swaying the supers. She won't have a case to argue. She will have fallen further out of political favor AND her Senate seat will be at risk down the road. There is more at stake here than her winning the nomination. If she takes this to the credentials committee, she will have lost the remainder of her diminished credibility.

[TahitiNut]

23. What then? A wooden stake?

:eyes:

[tekisui]

24. It's reaching into absurdity.

[Radio_Lady]

2. The END of June? I thought he said June 3rd, but that may have been another interview.

Or perhaps I misunderstood what he said.

Cordially,

Radio Lady in Oregon

[tekisui]

7. June 3rd is the last voting day.

He has asked the super's to start making endorsements, and is giving them until the end of June to make their final decision. He really wants to avoid a Convention fight. He may have said he wanted them to come forth earlier, but it sounds like he is giving them time after the last vote to weigh the decision.

[gateley]

3. I should know this, but....

Once ALL the Supers endorse, THEN will one or the other have the magic number needed?

Thanks.

[Radio_Lady]

5. Check DUer phrigndumass's journal... I think he plays much of it out there.

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/phrigndumass

[tekisui]

6. They will have the support of enough to reach 2025, however,

it is not official until they vote at the Convention. THey COULD switch at anytime until the COnvention. But, Dean is making the case here, that once the SD's have gone public, the presumptive Nominee should and will drop. His wording here sounds like he has discussed it with Party leaders and the Candidates.

[Radio_Lady]

9. Sounds correct to me. Thanks, Tekisui -- good analysis.

.. At least for today!!

[Orsino]

10. Ten days ago, he said he needed a decision "starting now."

http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Dean_to_superdelegates_I_need_decision_0418.html

[tekisui]

15. He wanted them starting then, which they did.

And, he wants them to all have gone public with their choices by the end of June.

My take is that they will continue to trickle through May 6th, the outcome could affect the pace. If Obama wins both IN and NC, they will speed up. Once Obama gets to the threshold of enough supers to clinch the Nomination, based on estimated Pledged Delegates from the remaining contests, they will avalanche. They will want to support Our Nominee.

[Bake]

13. Has Dean resolved the MI/FL dilemma?

I didn't think so. What a great leader!

Bake

[tekisui]

16. May 31st.

The hearings begin. When states break the rules, it isn't pretty.

[tekisui]

25. " if it's time for them to go, they'll know it and they will go"

Thank you , Dr. Dean!