Mike Turner in Virginia's 10th district

[gmudem]

A guy named Mike Turner, Colonel Mike Turner in fact, is running for Congress in the 10th district in Virginia. He's a Democrat running against the long-time Republican congressman Frank Wolf and he has a well-funded primary opponent.

He came to my campus tonight to speak with the College Dems and I was very impressed by him. The guy clearly knew what he was talking about and didn't mince words. He supports Obama and I asked him what the difference would be on down-ticket races with Obama as the nominee or Clinton as the nominee.

He couldn't have made it any more clear that if Clinton is the nominee it spells disaster for Democrats in Virginia. She certainly won't win here, and he said that if she is the nominee he will basically have no chance of winning. On the other hand, he would have a great chance of winning with Obama and that an Obama-Warner-Turner ticket would be very strong for Democrats in the 10th District.

I suspect this is the case for red-state Democrats throughout the country. If we want to win the presidency, expand our majorities in congress, and win seats in state legislatures throughout the country, it is clear we need to nominate Obama.

[gmudem]

1. Kick!

Any Clinton supporters want to address this topic?

[grantcart]

2. thanks and thanks to fighters like Turner

[DevonRex]

3. K&R nt

[Adelante]

4. Thanks for the report

We have to start thinking of what will work for our Dem candidates.

[spooky3]

5. I don't think he knows any more than anyone else what Virginians will do

and I don't think Obama has an advantage at this time over Clinton, relative to McCain.

The big problem for Dems here (I am also in NoVA) is that VA has not supported a Dem Pres. nominee for a long time, and I suspect McCain has a lot of support here particularly in more rural areas. I hope I am proven wrong.

[gmudem]

6. I think Obama would definitely have more support than Clinton

One of the points Turner made is that it Clinton is the nominee every damn Republican is going to come out and vote against her. Which means they will probably vote for Republicans on down-ticket races as well. Mark Warner will probably be fine either way, but he is an unusually strong position. However this will affect congressional races in a serious way, and he knows if he is going to have a good chance of beating Frank Wolf, he needs Obama to be the nominee.

I don't live in Virginia, I just go to college here. But it is clear that Obama has a much better chance of winning than Clinton. I'd also mention that he trounced her in the primary here.

[spooky3]

7. Well, I disagree with this, but my point was that no one knows until it happens.

You and Turner do not have sufficient evidence to support your position re: the general, and I don't either. We're just expressing opinions. I think Turner is simply wrong, particularly about some female Republicans who hold professional positions, some of whom have been interviewed in other states for example, and who are pissed about Bush and about how Clinton has been treated in this campaign. They and many men admire her toughness.

Go to CNN.com and look at the race exit poll results on the primary vote. A major reason Obama did well is that there is a relatively high proportion of African Americans voting in the Dem. primary here, as with some other states. But there are few African American Republicans in this state. The person who does well in the Dem. primary is not necessarily the one who will do well in the general. The primary also was open to Republicans who could have crossed over to interfere with Dem. choices.

In any case, Turner's bigger problem, if he can get past Feder in the primary, is the likely Virginian support for McCain.