THE MATH – Tuesday, April 29 – One Week Before North Carolina & Indiana

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH – Tuesday, April 29 – One Week Before North Carolina & Indiana (or Four Days Before Guam!)

7:00 a.m. Eastern Time (US)

Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,024.0 (considering status quo)
Pledged Delegates in – 2,845.0 of 3,253.0 – 87.5%

********************************************

THE MAGIC NUMBER

Here’s what we have after considering the information in the Polls section below:

Senator Obama’s Magic Number – 90 of 284 remaining superdelegates needed, or 31.7%
Senator Clinton’s Magic Number – 214 of 284 remaining superdelegates needed, or 75.4%

The Huckabee Index – 70 (or 24.6% of remaining superdelegates needed)

Super Huck 3.0! Index – Negative 90 (-90) (more information)

The “Huckabee Index” is the number of any combination of superdelegates and convention/caucus delegates that the Obama campaign needs (or the Clinton campaign loses) to make it mathematically impossible for the Clinton campaign to win the nomination, based on current delegate count and polls for upcoming contests. (Disclaimer: This is meant to poke fun at Mike Huckabee, not Hillary Clinton)

Spreadsheet (Feel free to download)



PROJECTED END-RESULTS OF PRIMARIES BASED ON POLLS:

Projected Pledged Delegates at the end of the race:
Barack Obama – 1,689.5 (63 above HALF) <--- Expected to reach halfway mark on May 20
Hillary Clinton – 1,545.5 (81 below HALF)

(Chart includes current superdelegate counts)



Projected Hybrid “Popular” Vote at the end of the race:
Barack Obama – 16,770,112 (+660,322)
Hillary Clinton – 16,109,790



********************************************

TOTAL DELEGATES

Estimated Total Delegates as of April 29:
Barack Obama – 1,735.5 (288.5 short)
Hillary Clinton – 1,601.5 (422.5 short)
Remaining Total Delegates – 692.0
(Sources: NBC, Wikipedia 4/29/08)

SUPERDELEGATES

Superdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Barack Obama – 245 (Source: NBC 4/29/08)
Hillary Clinton – 265 (Source: NBC 4/29/08)
Remaining Superdelegates – 284

PLEDGED DELEGATES

Estimated Pledged Delegates as of April 29:
Barack Obama – 1,490.5 (136.0 short of HALF) <--- This is the Pelosi Club number
Hillary Clinton – 1,336.5 (290.0 short of HALF)
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 408.0
(Source: Wikipedia 4/29/08)

OVERALL CONTESTS WON: Barack Obama – 30; Hillary Clinton – 16

PRIMARIES WON: Barack Obama – 16; Hillary Clinton – 13

CAUCUSES WON: Barack Obama – 14; Hillary Clinton – 3

BLUE AND RED STATES WON:
Barack Obama – 11 Blue, 16 Red
Hillary Clinton – 7 Blue, 8 Red

********************************************

HYBRID “POPULAR” VOTE (for informational purposes only)

Disclaimer: The purpose of votes in a primary election cycle is to select delegates. Superdelegates may use a hybrid total of votes as a method of choosing which candidate to endorse, but doing so doesn’t justify the universal existence of such a method.

Status Quo, as of April 29:
Barack Obama – 14,735,413 (+613,692)
Hillary Clinton – 14,121,451
(Source: Wikipedia 4/29/08)

With Florida only added, as of April 29:
Barack Obama – 15,311,627 (+319,190)
Hillary Clinton – 14,992,437

With Florida and Michigan added, as of April 29*:
Barack Obama – 15,311,627
Hillary Clinton – 15,320,746 (+9,119)
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

Special Sidenote:
The majority of Senator Clinton’s total hybrid “popular” votes (54%) have come from only 5 states:
CA – 2,608,184
TX – 1,459,814
PA – 1,259,466
OH – 1,212,362
NY – 1,068,496
Total – 7,608,322 of 14,121,451 (54%)

********************************************

SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PLEDGED DELEGATES ARE 50/50 SPLIT

All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.

Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 219 of 284, or 76.9% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Clinton needs 215 of 285, or 75.3% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 207 of 296, or 69.8% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 203 of 297, or 68.2% of remaining SDs

Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 85 of 284, or 29.8% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Obama needs 102 of 285, or 35.6% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Obama needs 89 of 296, or 29.9% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Obama needs 106 of 297, or 35.5% of remaining SDs

The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

********************************************

SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PLEDGED DELEGATES ARE 55/45 CLINTON

All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.

Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 198 of 284, or 69.5% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Clinton needs 194 of 285, or 67.9% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 186 of 296, or 62.7% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 182 of 297, or 61.1% of remaining SDs

Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 106 of 284, or 37.1% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Obama needs 123 of 285, or 43.0% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Obama needs 110 of 296, or 37.0% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Obama needs 127 of 297, or 42.6% of remaining SDs

The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

*********************************************

FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN SCENARIOS REGARDING PLEDGED DELEGATES

These are the possible scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan, and what it would require for Senator Clinton to catch up to Senator Obama in pledged delegates. These scenarios are for pledged delegates only. Superdelegate counts are not included. (Note: All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.)

The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

Scenario 1 – Status Quo (without Florida and Michigan)
Senator Obama needs 31.1% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 68.9% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

Scenario 10 – Florida Half-count, Michigan not seated
Senator Obama needs 33.5% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 66.5% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

Scenario 11 – Florida not seated, Michigan Compromise
Senator Obama needs 32.4% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 67.6% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

Scenario 12 – Florida Half-count, Michigan Compromise
Senator Obama needs 34.7% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 65.3% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

********************************************

Sources:
Superdelegates (highest reported for each)
Pledged Delegates
Popular Vote
Projections and Charts (spreadsheet)
State Populations 2007

Latest Polls:
North Carolina
Indiana
West Virginia
Oregon
Kentucky
Puerto Rico
South Dakota

More Links:

Brokered Convention

Official Delegate Selection Rules for the 2008 Democratic National Convention

Link to the spreadsheet (feel free to download and create your own scenarios):
Spreadsheet

Link to my journal … For past editions, click on the link to view my past journal entries:
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/phrigndumass

********************************************

GENERAL ELECTION SECTION

Projected Electoral Votes (270 needed):
Obama – 243
McCain – 269
Ties – 26
(Source: Electoral-Vote.com 4/28)

Projected Popular Vote:
Obama – 57,272,518 (45.2%)
McCain – 58,116,615 (45.9%)
Undecided/Other – 11,331,866 (8.9%)







Check out a preview of the new spreadsheet for the General Election Math!

********************************************



Please keep this thread bumped for easier access in GDP.



.

[phrigndumass]

1. Save this first sub-thread for OP updates

Don't reply to this sub-thread

[phrigndumass]

38. Since this morning ...

Senator Clinton picked up one superdelegate, Gov. Mike Easley of North Carolina. I caught the Yahoo article yesterday and added this superdelegate into Senator Clinton's total before publishing this morning, so Senator Clinton's superdelegate count stays put.

Senator Obama has picked up two delegates today (reducing the Hucknumber by 2):
Rep. Ben Chandler of Kentucky
DNC Member Richard Machacek of Iowa

Also, Rasmussen Reports has released a new poll for North Carolina. Senator Obama is now +14 (previous PPP poll was +12). The new poll reduces the Hucknumber by 1 more.

Further, Public Policy Polling (PPP) has released a new poll for Indiana. Senator Clinton is now +8 (previous SUSA poll was +9). This new poll reduces the Hucknumber by 1 more.

Huckabee Index is now at 66

:dunce:

[phrigndumass]

40. More polls are coming in, but they are dated the same as PPP and RAS

A new Kentucky poll shows Senator Clinton +26, which is the same as a few weeks ago, with the exception of one percentage point added for both Senator Clinton and Senator Obama.

Hucknumber remains at 66.

[phrigndumass]

46. Three superdelegate endorsements so far today for Senator Obama!

Reduces the Huckabee Index by 3 ... to 63.

:dunce:

[phrigndumass]

2. Granting permission to use this information here on DU and on internet

I am granting permission for everyone to use any of this information, in whole or in part, in other threads here on DU, and anywhere on the internet.

- phrigndumass

[hokies4ever]

6. One suggestion

Great math spreadsheet. I just wanted to point out that it doesn't include the 'undecided' add-on superdelegates. These will be determined by which campaigns won various states, so while they are listed as 'undecided', they really aren't. I don't have the numbers for this, but I think that there are 76 total, most of them undeclared, so Obama should pick up at least 20 more of these automatically.

Also, it would be great if someone could compile the superdelegate leaners. I think there are 6 or so who have said that they would back the pledged delegate leader, most notably Nancy Pelosi. Also, some of the undecideds are clearly in Obama's camp, like President Carter.

[phrigndumass]

8. Good point, and a link to answer your second question

DemConWatch is great for tracking the superdelegates. Click on the link below and check out the sidebar on their webpage. The sidebar has links to information about the Pelosi Club and the other superdelegates.

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/04/mr-supers-take-on-where-undeclared.html

:hi:

[chknltl]

3. first of many recommendations

Thank you for everything once again phrigndumass.

[phrigndumass]

4. Ha! You get a cheeseburger!

Or in lolcat speak ... U can haz cheezburgr

Thanks chknltl!

:hi:

[chknltl]

5. mmmm cheesburgers

Actually: mmm sleep... it is 4:20 AM g'night and my thanks again u-rok!

[phrigndumass]

12. Good night! Sleep tight!

:boring:

[MADem]

7. I think all this math may have been erased off the blackboard by the Wright eraser. NT

[phrigndumass]

9. Good luck with that! You'll need it. n/t

[MADem]

10. Time will tell.

I think this is pretty interesting, and indicative of a trendline: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6Gm772KaphA&refer=home

[phrigndumass]

11. Did you see this one?

A superdelegate's take on where the rest of the superdelegates stand:

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/04/mr-supers-take-on-where-undeclared.html

This is what I call the Super Huck 3.0! Index.

:hi:

[MADem]

13. Superdelegates can change their minds, you know, like Richardson did.

Your citation predates the worst of "The Wright Stuff."

So, I'd say it probably isn't terribly instructive at this stage of the game.

But one good cite deserves another: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/29/opinion/29herbert.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

...Beyond that, the apparent helplessness of the Obama campaign in the face of the Wright onslaught contributes to the growing perception of the candidate as weak, as someone who is unwilling or unable to fight aggressively on his own behalf.

Hillary Clinton is taunting Mr. Obama about his unwillingness to participate in another debate. Rev. Wright is roaming the country with the press corps in tow, happily promoting the one issue Mr. Obama had tried to avoid: race.

Mr. Obama seems more and more like someone buffeted by events, rather than in charge of them. Very little has changed in the superdelegate count, but a number of those delegates have expressed concern in private over Mr. Obama’s inability to do better among white working-class voters and Catholics.

Rev. Wright is absolutely the wrong medicine for those concerns.

[phrigndumass]

14. And vice versa. It's happened both ways a few times already.

Eighty percent of the remaining superdelegates need to agree with each other and endorse Senator Clinton for her to win the nomination. That's highly improbable, almost impossible. The superdelegates have split about 52/48 at this point. A more probable split of the remaining superdelegates would be 50/50 or 60/40, or at the most a 2:1 ratio.

If "the worst of the Wright stuff" had happened two months ago, it might have had the effect you are looking for. But with the race about 90% over, it won't change a thing, except maybe tear down both candidates' credibility and that of the Democratic Party as a whole.

You are a Democrat, aren't you?

[MADem]

15. We are back to MY point--Time will tell.

You "are" a Democrat, aren't you?

What's with that snarky, childish, "designed-to-denigrate," bullshit remark?

Shame on you.

I'm having a discussion with you, and providing cites to back up what I say, and you respond with "You ARRRE a Democrat, aren't you?" And then insist to me that eighty percent of the superdelegates need to agree...without even factoring in the pesky reality that I mentioned--that some of the committed ones might UNCOMMIT themselves if the situation continues to look "iffy" for Obama.

Clinton taking a strong lead in the individual vote count could give those 'committed' folks room to move. See, time WILL tell.

I'd direct a strong personal invective at you for that last cheap shot sentence if it weren't against forum rules, but suffice it to say that you've shown YOUR true colors with that immature remark.

So we're done, here.

Grow up, and have a nice day.

[phrigndumass]

17. I did factor in your "pesky reality"

Uncommitting works both ways. It's happened a few times already, both ways. You just didn't like my answer.

Citing Wright as a point of reference is exactly what "designed-to-denigrate" is. You just called the kettle black. Shame on me? Shame on you!

Time will tell, yes, but don't hold your breath.

Have a beautiful day!

:crazy:

[livingmadness]

16. Thanks for this great work

Its extra-ordinary seeing all the doom-sayers piling on post-Wright II!!! Still, who can blame them for having so little to hope for?? ;) Clinton supporters are desperate for Obama-geddon, and while the Wright fracas hasn't been great, it is FAR from a knock out punch. I predict he'll do really well next Tuesdays, and your numbers only bolster that certainty, so thanks!

[phrigndumass]

19. Thanks, livingmadness!

The Clinton campaign has nothing new, so "Wright II" is just a rehash of the kitchen sink.

:hi:

[Dawgs]

27. Didn't you guys say the same thing 5 weeks ago?

It didn't work then, and it won't work now.

[phrigndumass]

41. They have nothing new ... n/t

:hi:

[sunnystarr]

18. K&R Thank you for your hard work and needed info! (nt0

[phrigndumass]

20. Happy to do it. =)

:hi:

[Apollo11]

21. NO!! -- NOT THE MATH AGAIN! --- ENOUGH ALREADY!!

Why don't you go and stick your numbers someplace where the sun never shines? B-)

[phrigndumass]

23. LOL ... Hiding the thread is an option

:hi:

[Buzz Clik]

32. Hm. Fan mail from some flounder?

That character is on my Ignore list. Life is much more peaceful...

[Apollo11]

34. Ignoring one of the wittiest and most interesting members of DU?

Way to improve your GDP experience! :hi:

[Buzz Clik]

22. So the Huckabee index went up from 62 to 70. Why is that?

[phrigndumass]

25. Because of the latest Indiana and North Carolina polls

North Carolina poll went from Obama +25 to Obama +12 (PPP)

Indiana poll went from Obama +3 to Clinton +9 (SUSA)

This is the post-Pennsylvania bump for Senator Clinton, and it only changed the Hucknumber by eight! Doesn't look like much momentum to me.

:hi:

[Buzz Clik]

29. I see. Well, we have to be careful (or at least consistent) in the polls we watch.

pollster.com are my boys, and NC wasn't affected much by Pennsylvania:



On the other hand, they have uncharacteristically allowed themselves to ride every bump in the Indiana polls:



The individual polls in Indiana really haven't changed over the past 10 days, but you'd think that Hillary suddenly had an explosion. :shrug:

Anyway, thanks for the efforts. It gives us an important gauge.

[phrigndumass]

31. Thanks for the graphs! I need to spend more time at pollster.com

Off to work!

:patriot:

[Coexist]

24. again, much thanks for your hard work

[phrigndumass]

26. Thanks FLDem5! Happy to do it.

:hi:

[Laura PourMeADrink]

28. Hi ! Guess this doesn't have the dippy NC Gov endorsement

of HRC in it - back up to a 21 spread on SD. Don't change it ! maybe O will get a big
endorsement today and even it out again.

[phrigndumass]

30. Hey honey sweetie ... I saw the Yahoo article yesterday and added the SD for Clinton

Back down to a 20 spread on SD!

:loveya: :hi: :woohoo:

[Kukesa]

33. Big Kick for all your hard work! n/t

[phrigndumass]

36. Thanks Kukesa!

:hi:

[Upton]

35. Great work thanks

[phrigndumass]

37. Thanks Upton!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

39. Did anyone catch the General Election Section in the OP? If so, what did you think of it?

General Election Projected Popular Vote is based on 2004 total votes by state, plus or minus the population growth (or loss) of each state in the past four years. Polls are then factored in to project an Obama total, McCain total and Undecided/Other total for each state.

Here's an illustration for Washington:

Total votes in the 2004 General Election - 2,859,084

Four-year population growth for Washington - 5.71%

Projected total votes in the 2008 General Election - 3,022,357

Latest poll for Washington and projected vote totals:
Obama - 53% of 3,022,357 = 1,601,849
McCain - 40% of 3,022,357 = 1,208,943
Undecided/Other - 7% of 3,022,357 = 211,565

:D

[chknltl]

42. kickity

[phrigndumass]

43. One last kick in the nut sack =)

Try singing "Love Shack" by the B-52's and replacing the words with "Nut Sack"

[Aloha Spirit]

44. Just noticed barackobama.com has the Pelosi number posted now--134.

[phrigndumass]

45. Make that 133 ... =)

Senator Obama has had three superdelegate endorsements so far today!

:woohoo: