Hillary's chances are rising steadily

[DangerDave921]

I think she's got about a 40% chance of getting the nomination. If she wins Indiana, and does better than expected in NC, it will be nearly 50%.

Wright -- and the MSM coverage -- is slowly and inexorably causing Obama to fade. Soon it may be too much to ask the SD's to vote for him.

[Tinksrival]

1. Ha!

:rofl:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

2. Nope.

It's over.
Still.

[Buzz Clik]

3. Her chances are currently sitting at about 20%.

If Obama loses both Indiana and North Carolina, her chances rise to about 30%.

[Yossariant]

15. If Clinton wins NC -- not that I think she will -- it is over for Obama.

[Buzz Clik]

22. No more than losing Indiana will make if over for Hillary.

It's a decision that each candidate will have to make.

Obama has the inside track even if he loses every remaining primary.

[jsamuel]

64. do you think the SD's will want to vote for a candidate who hasn't won a race for months?

and lost the popular vote?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

25. By 70%.

Not gonna happen.

This race has been over for 2 months.

[DangerDave921]

40. If Obama loses NC, he is absolutely done.

No doubt about it. NC is his bread and butter.

[TheWraith]

53. Too generous. I wouldn't put it any higher than 10% at the very best, and still falling.

5% might be more accurate. She's done, and she's continuing to drop.

[leftofcool]

4. I am hearing rumors that she is likely to win in NC

Just rumors from contacts we have there.

[cali]

14. there is nothing to support your rumors

and yeah, I think they're your rumors.

[NorthCarolina]

16. I am in NC and I gotta honestly say your "contacts" must need better contacts

it's Obama-mania here. The best thing is that unlike OH and PA, we have paper ballot system here with the exception of a couple counties that still use EVM, but then even those EVM's have a paper trail. No shenanigans, just straight up voting, and from what I am seeing and hearing on the ground, Hillary doesn't have an ice-cubes chance ........ time will tell

[Buzz Clik]

26. Do consider the source.

leftofcool, as with many HRC supporters at DU, does openly show his support for her with an avatar or sig line. But, his bias is crystal clear. I'm guessing his "contacts" are of a similar stripe.

[jmowreader]

50. *Still* use EVM?

In 2006 we voted on optical scan ballots in Cumberland County. This year, we've got iVotronics.

[Independent-Voter]

56. Paper ballots, less low-educated old white women, decent wages... NC is nothing like OH and PA

Veruca hasn't a snowball's chance in hell down here. The I-40/85 corridor is going to carry the state, but she'll pick up some from the far east and west ends of the state. I'd be shocked if she came with 10%, and 12-14% wouldn't surprise me.

[CoffeeCat]

18. There are NO polls that indicate that...

The only polls I've seen out of NC, have Obama in a double-digit lead.

No doubt she'll run an aggressive campaign there.

However, there is no evidence to support a win there for her.

If you've got something substantial, I'd love to hear it.

[EnviroBat]

21. I'm hearing rumors that Obama's already been given the nod

from the DNC. See how that stupid shit works? Please try to avoid spreading propaganda, "rumors" (and false hope). It's childish and dumb.

[NorthCarolina]

63. You're right about what you say, but

I sure enjoyed seeing the subject line of your post....even if it was only said to prove a point! :9

[Buzz Clik]

24. I've been hearing other rumors:

[EnviroBat]

32. HAHHAHAHAH!

That's Awesome! Thanks!
:hi:

[mattclearing]

31. LOL n/t

[Terran]

49. Hmmm

several polls I just looked at still have him 9-12% in the lead.

[HereSince1628]

5. Well, Slate has her chances at about 12.4% and that's up

thanks to the Rev. Wright Ver 2.0.

[cali]

6. I don't think it's that high

Obama leads in elected SDs. These are the people who will be most impacted by whoever's at the top of the ticket. Yesterday another influential Sentator endorsed Obama. Obama will have to NC for Hillary to have a real chance.

[Edgewater_Joe]

7. Keep Dreaming

Right now her chances are more like 15%, and even if everything implodes her chances post-IN/NC would rise to about 30%, if that.

More importantly, if Hillary did STEAL the nomination -- the only way she can get it -- her chances of actually winning in November would be about 20%.

Why do you want McSame to win the White House?

[DangerDave921]

9. It's not what I want

I'm not God. What I want is immaterial to the debate. I just sense a shift in dynamics with the most recent Wright stuff. OR -- maybe I spent too much time watching CNN last night devoting an hour to the topic! :)

This junk about Wright is seeping into the mainstream, and it will cause some serious concern on the part of the SD's. If -- note I said IF -- Hillary kicks ass in Indiana, keeps it close in NC, and wins the rest of the primaries, the SD's are going to have a tough decision. It is not as easy as just saying Obama leads in delegates.

This is observation, not wish fulfillment.

[leftofcool]

12. her chances of actually winning in November would be about 20%.

Yet the polls show she is leading McCain by 9 points

[TheCowsCameHome]

8. George Bush's chances are better...............

:rofl:

[Joe the Revelator]

10. Its been one day of coverage over something that he's already addressed...

this will pass just like it did a month ago, and Hillary will still be unable to win the nomination.

[Dawgs]

11. Didn't we hear these same things 5 weeks ago during the first episode of Rev. Wright?

And instead of Hillary gaining support and Obama losing support, Obama closed to within 9 points after being down 20.

[WinkyDink]

28. I think the pertinent point is---5 weeks later, and it's still a story.

[SoonerPride]

57. And still having no effect.

Lewinsky is still a story, but who cares anymore?

Really.

[mattclearing]

13. Enjoy your stay in Fantasyland. n/t

[CoffeeCat]

20. I hear they put mints on the pillow...

...and that if you buy the deluxe hallucination package--you get a free bathrobe.

[mattclearing]

23. It's going to really hurt these people when Obama gets his mojo back.

In fact, it looks like he's back on message and doing pretty well this last day or so.

[CoffeeCat]

29. I'm seriously not worried about this...

Obama will recalibrate and he'll be fine.

[CoffeeCat]

17. The only thing that matters is the pledged delegate count...

The rest is a bunch of spin.

The candidate with the most delegates at the end of this process--will secure the nomination.

If you've been paying attention at all--the Supers have clearly indicated that they will not
usurp the will of the people--and break with the candidate who has fewer pledged delegates.

Hillary Clinton makes the case that they will, but that is not a reality-based opinion.

If Clinton hangs in there--and takes each remaining state by 67 percent, and convinces a majority
of the SD's to break with her---she's got the nomination. That's the only way she can win.

Is it possible? Yes. Is it likely? No.

[nevergiveup]

19. Keep dreaming

I do not know her % percentage chances but if she steals this thing her chances in the general are zero. If the roles had been reversed Obama would have been forced out after Wisconsin. Obama's campaign has been the most remarkable I have seen in my many many years of being a political junkie. No question that the good/evil? (your choice) Reverend has been a major distraction but I still believe Obama will be our next president.

[olkaz]

27. I noticed you forgot to mention all the SD's Obama is getting.

He's supposed to be getting between 20-25 between Penn and NC. The numbers so far bear that out.

I don't know why I'm replying, honestly, a post of three sentences of truthiness isn't really substantial.

[WeDidIt]

30. The chance is less than 3%

Seriously, there is little to no chance.

35 more super delegates for Obama and it drops to less than 1%.

[kevinbgoode]

33. Huh?

Only Hillary's supporters and the Republicans care about Rev. Wright. . .and we already know the MSM has endorsed McSame.

You might want to check out the credibility level of both the MSM and Hillary among the American people. Better than half give them negative ratings.

[Tellurian]

34. Obama is finished..

afaic.. Hillary is the ONLY viable candidate that can beat the Republicans. Obama IS for all intents and purposes, damaged goods he will be nothing more than Republican fodder in the General. We can't afford a roll of the dice at this late stage of the game.

Obama should think of the importance of having a Democrat in the White House in 09' and bow out NOW!

[Mooney]

54. HA HA HA HA (etc)

Obama is still winning, by every conceivable metric. This is now the third Wright Eruption and I see no reason why it should be effective this time when it didn't sink Obama the last two times. Same with Rezko and all the other campaign-enders that have uniformly failed to end Obama's campaign.

No amount of spin will buy Hillary Clinton frontrunner status. So wake me up when something relevant happens, like if Obama has an aneurysm.

[kid a]

35. WOW...will you cash this check for $100,000.00 for me. I'm trapped in Algiers.

I promise to pay you 25% just to help me leave this place.

[IDemo]

36. Once again: Blowtorch > Snowball

[jefferson_dem]

37. Paint a reasonable scenario for us. Hillary's supporters usually do not like to do that.

Thanks.

[nxylas]

38. Yeah, Obama's gonna implode any minute now

Hear him imploding? Oh no, that was a car backfiring. But he'll implode tomorrow, just you watch. Lather, rinse and repeat. The Clintonites are like those religious cults that have already predicted about 20 different dates for the end of the world, all of which have passed uneventfully, but just keep revising the date until they get it right.

[Orsino]

39. I would have said that her chance jumped from 1% to 2%.

Wheeling and dealing at the convention, or the selective addition of MI and FL delegate numbers, still might result in her nomination. Her chance is not good, but the victory in PA will at least make it seem better.

[JoFerret]

41. Depends on the muscularity of Wright's legs plus

Hillary's continuing upswing irrespective of Obama's woes.

[not_too_L8]

42. Rasmussen markets

To Win 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination

Hillary Clinton
22.2

Barack Obama
76.1

[SoonerPride]

43. She still has a 0% chance. That train left the station two months ago.

It is over.

[Avalux]

44. Obama has received two SD endorsements today.

If what you're saying is true, he shouldn't be getting any. I think you need to re-examine your premise for Hillary's chances.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

45. If youre standing on your head ...

:*

[grantcart]

46. go on Intrade and throw your money away then

[redqueen]

47. Where do you get "40% chance" from?

:wtf:

[4_Legs_Good]

48. LOL! And yet SOMEHOW, he's gaining daily in the SD count

He's only 21 behind now.

These mystery super delegates for Clinton simply are not coming through, and Obama will end up passing the 2025 threshold on his own soon enough. 298 Delegates to go...

David

[Mooney]

51. Wrong.

She has as little chance of winning the nomination as she did two months ago. And Obama keeps getting superdelegates to come his way.

It's over, and it's been over since February. For all her huffing and puffing, Hillary Clinton has won 4 contests since Super Tuesday to Obama's 14. And all the time, money and campaigning that she's expended getting those four victories netted her maybe 15 delegates, at best.

She's fucked.

[burythehatchet]

52. I think you're right...send her more money, QUICKLY!!

[Leftist Agitator]

55. And by rising, you mean falling, right?

Or did you mean "non-existent"?

:shrug:

[Tommy_Carcetti]

58. And Leon's getting LLLLLAAAARRRGGGERRRR!!!!!!!

(Sorry, no point to my reply. When I saw the OP, this is the first thing that popped into my head so I just had to post this.) :)

Carry on.

[Yael]

59. The only chances that are rising are those of abject failure for her campaign.

[w4rma]

60. If she wins every state from here on out by 20% margins she might tie Obama. (nt)

[FatDave]

61. 40%? 15%? 22.5%?

A lot of people posting odds on this threads. Are these your odds that the superdelegates will swing the election for Hillary? Because that's the only way she wins at this point.

[Eurobabe]

62. What kind of crystal meth are they giving you people these days?

Blue, yellow?

[Stop Cornyn]

65. Slate's "Hillary Deathwatch" (giving her a 12.9% change currently) is about right. Link:

http://www.slate.com/id/2190213/

[eridani]

66. The Tuzla liar cannot beat an ex-POW, period n/t

[thoughtcrime1984]

67. I'll give you a 5% chance

Too late, waited too long! NO CHANCE FOR YOU!

[FlyingSquirrel]

68. Uh huh.

And this is based on.............. what?

The idea that he'll not get 45% of the remaining vote and 45% of the remaining superdelegates? Because that's all he needs. Actually he only needs 45% of the vote and less than 35% of the remaining supers.

Good luck with your pipe dream.

[crankychatter]

69. how happy you would be

kma