New Rasmussen Poll: Obama up by 14 in North Carolina

[Tropics_Dude83]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_carolina/north_carolina_democratic_primary

Just FYI

[JKaiser]

1. I voted early for hillary! Go HILL

[Independent-Voter]

6 of us voted rationally, and voted early for Obama

[JKaiser]

5. umm.. okay.. Good for you.. GO Hillary!!

[Windy]

16. You need to do a gut check. I know you've already cast your ill informed vote, but her tactics

should deny her the nod of the democratic party. She is no better than bush when he swiftboated McCain. No better than Bush when he swiftboated Kerry.

Your priorities are seriously misplaced.

[Tarheel_Dem]

29. thank you. I'm taking a half day tomorrow, so I'll get my vote in.

I heard Bruce Davis (Cty. Commissioner) say on Saturday that these early voting lines look like GE lines. I'm hoping I can get in & out fairly quickly, but I'll stay as long as it takes.
:hi:

[JKaiser]

2. She is closing the gap.. The tide is turning.. He was ahead by 20 points

[MercutioATC]

6. See, but that doesn't work when she needs to win it by at least 30 points...

For the frontrunner to cut into the 2nd-place candidate's lead in a state that favors the 2nd candidate is a benefit...

Unless Clinton can win each and every one of the remaining primaries 65-35 (and that number will skew more once NC is done). Just cutting into Obama's lead in NC won't help her...she's still going to come in way behind.

[JKaiser]

14. Doesn't matter.. If she somehow wins NC.. or makes it close.. it will show

that Obama is a weak candidate..

[MercutioATC]

22. Boy, you're clinging to those alternate realities, aren't you?

Tell you what...I'm going to stop posting on this silliness until after May 7.

By May 7, another 191 pledged delegates will have weighed in. Unless there's a move of 20 or more SD's my then, it's pointless to conjecture.

[nebula]

21. She doesn't need to win

her intention is to stay in the race long enough do enough damage and cripple his chances against McCain in the GE.

That will most certainly happen the longer this thing drags out, especially if it goes to the convention.

[durrrty libby]

7. The governor just endorsed today. It will get a lot tighter

And now I see a week ago he led by 23. Oh dear!

[BeyondGeography]

8. No you won't

(errr, edit needed.)

[durrrty libby]

40. Some might say that was a disgusting misogynist remark,

typical of an ignorant knuckledragger..:hangover:.. :dunce:

[MercutioATC]

9. It can get as tight as it wants. Unless she gets a truly huge win (not "huge" like 9.2 points)

..."huge" like 30 points...she falls further behind with almost no free pledged delegates left to pick up.

[durrrty libby]

18. He's unelectable

[MercutioATC]

25. Gee, he seems to be more "electable" than Clinton is...

What does that say about her?

[npincus]

42. sure, like Independents or African Americans will FLOCK to Hilary!

:rofl:

She is unelectable.

[Independent-Voter]

12. Just like most of her supporters I see.

[MattNC]

27. Gov. Easley

is not terribly popular anymore, and he does not have a terribly effective statewide organization. A few percentage points uptick for Clinton? Maybe. Not much more.

[durrrty libby]

41. His endorsement looks bad for BO, anyway you slice it

[MattNC]

43. Good for Clinton

but not necessarily all that bad for Obama. Absolutely no one here expected an Easley endorsement for Obama. Most thought he would sit on the sidelines and retreat from national Democratic politics like he always has. But like I said, I'm sure it might help get her one or two percentage points.

[book_worm]

28. The Governor won't add anything

and Obama will do much better in NC than Hillary did in PA where she netted, what? 10 delegates more than he did? he'll surpass that by far in NC. Oh dear! poor Hill.

[MadBadger]

3. His numbers are down, but still hold a sizeable lead.

PPP's poll has early voting going to him 2-1

[Independent-Voter]

23. We finally got our first (really shitty) mailing from HRC yesterday. Obama's sent 4 already

and is really hammering the early voting. My wife is taking a distance ed course now, so she gets tons of student-related mailings. Guess who sent a mailing the day before early voting started, and ran a full-page ad in the student paper? It sure as hell wasn't Veruca.

[SoxFan]

38. "Veruca"

:spray:

[mcctatas]

4. So I suppose NC doesn't count anymore?

that would fit the ususal pattern!

[Connie_Corleone]

10. The Hillbots think that Obama needs to win NC by 50+ points or something.

Anything else would be seen as a loss for him.

LOL!!

[mcctatas]

15. ....

I wonder if they'll round up his win in NC too, you know, like they did with Hillary's in Pennsylvania?

[nxylas]

19. It never counted

The Clinton campaign has been saying almost from the beginning that NC is only worth three-fifths of a state.

[mcctatas]

34. ...

What an elitist asshole campaign...

:puke:

[rodeodance]

11. ha, Obama has LOST half the pts since last poll.

North Carolina Democratic Primary
North Carolina: Obama 51% Clinton 37%
Tuesday, April 29, 2008

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of North Carolina’s Presidential Primary finds Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton 51% to 37%. Earlier this month, Obama led by twenty-three percentage points.

[MercutioATC]

17. ..and that will gain Clinton exactly nothing.

There simply aren't enough pledged delegates left for her to pull off a win. If she wins IN and NC by 30, I'll concede that Obama has a problem...

[MadBadger]

20. YAY! Rodeo Cant COunt!

[mcctatas]

31. Well then obviously it is a win for Hillary....

any candidate who manages to cut thier opponents lead in half in a state they are supposed to run away with has clearly lessened the impact of that win....
right?

*snip*
A new poll of likely voters in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary shows Sen. Hillary Clinton skyrocketing from a deadlock to a 20-point lead over Sen. Barack Obama in just one week."

http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=61563
which he manged to cut in half by the next week when the primary was held....

of course, that's different, because he's not saint hillary....
:eyes:

[kmsarvis]

32. FYI

Fifty-six percent (56%) of survey respondents were women and 44% men. Sixty-four percent (64%) were White, 33% African-American, and 3% some other racial heritage. Ten percent (10%) were under 30 and 55% over 65.

It should be noted that 40% of registered democrats in N.C. are African-American and that the under 30 turnout is likely to greater than 10%.I also doubt that 55% of the voters will be older than 65.

[jenmito]

35. Wrong.

[mcctatas]

39. ....

rodeo does the new math:

actual numbers
______________ X despearation of Hillbots +/- whatever it takes to win...

stubborn refusal
to accept facts

[kentuck]

13. What if he only wins by 9.2% ??

Is it a victory or a loss?

[Tarheel_Dem]

24. doesn't matter. the m$m will spin it to hillary's advantage, whatever

the outcome. but those of us in the reality based world know that she needs to win every remaining contest by 20 pts. or better.

[MercutioATC]

33. Statistically, it's a practical draw. Strategically, it's a win.

With the disparity in delegate counts between the candidates, they realistically have the following criteria:

Obama: Anything other than a 30+ point loss is a strategic win. However, he can't rack up too many of these or SDs might start to get antsy.

Clinton: Only wins of greater than 30 points are strategic wins. Anything less puts the delegate lead farther and farther away...and that 30-point number goes up with every state she fails to win by 30 (and down if she gets more than 30 points).

[book_worm]

26. He will do better than she did in PA (I predict a 15-point margin)

9% of black voters are undecided and he wins them 80-11, he will get closer to 90%.

[MattNC]

30. this is just a guess

but yesterday's PPP poll had the black vote at 33%. a few points off in my view. i could see it up to 40% here possibly.

[kmsarvis]

37. Exactly!!!

There will be 40%+ African-American turnout.

[kmsarvis]

36. And also .........

take a look at who was surveyed.......Up thread #32

[book_worm]

44. I think this is more accurate than the survey usa poll.

[Dbdmjs1022]

45. That's more than enough to offset her gain in PA! GObama!

[scheming daemons]

46. Does this mean you'll change your avatar again? (since you change it based on how the wind blows)

[Tropics_Dude83]

47. Obama's days of 60-40 landslides are over post-Wright n/t

[AllentownJake]

48. The thing is

He doesn't need them anymore. Winning at all even by one vote lessons her chances more and more.

[scheming daemons]

50. So you only support a candidate based on what EVERYBODY ELSE thinks?

Do you have a mind of your own?


Nevermind.... I know the answer.

[IDemo]

49. Real Clear Politics average = Obama at +10.3

SurveyUSA___Obama +5.0
Rasmussen____Obama +14.0
PPP_________Obama +12.0

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_primary-275.html