South: Bush 50, Kerry 47

[GBD4]

I can't find an Internet link for this, but on Hardball tonite, they said that a Zogby poll released today found that Bush's 53-35 lead in the South has turned into just a meager 50-47 lead since the announcement of Edwards as the VP candidate. This poll was for the 11 Southern states plus WV and Kentucky. So, if we take out Miss, Ala, and Texas, we're probably ahead in the more competitive Southern states?

[Rowdyboy]

1. Its entirely possible....

I live in Mississippi and it'll likely be 62-65% Bush. Likewise Alabama, Texas and Tennessee. That means there are a helluva lot of Kerry voters in the other states.

[Renew Deal]

3. TN could be close.

There are still a lot of dems there.

[Rowdyboy]

7. The last couple of polls I've seen have been pretty bad...

57%-39% sticks in my head from one...ANYTHING is possible this year; still, I wouldn't count on too many votes from the south.

[Renew Deal]

11. Ewe, that is ugly.

I didn't think it was that bad.

[Rowdyboy]

14. Well, I've looked and I can't find backup for that

Rasmussen has them at 49-41% which is certainly doable. Maybe I got my states mixed up. Numbers will be coming in quickly now that all the players are in place.

[spooky3]

22. A lot of people still don't know Edwards at all. Only we junkies

were paying attention during the primaries. Once he's unleashed, I think we'll see our #s going up.

[Claire Beth]

26. yup, you're right there are quite a lot of dems

in west TN and some in middle TN..... East TN tends to be the higher populated area of repubs but I would guess at least SOME of them are disenchanted with *. Tennessee is up for grabs.

[mememe]

29. TN will depend on one person .....

... and that person will not be Kerry, Edwards, Bush or Cheney.

My prediction is that the direction TN will go will depend on how active Gov. Bredesen is in the campaign. He has an extremely high approval rating with D's and R's. If he is actively behind Kerry/Edwards then TN is in play. If not, then Bush/Cheney will likely win here.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. That's What I Would Infer Too

NT

[Renew Deal]

2. We should be winning these states.

The pukes don't do anything for the people that live there.

[quaoar]

4. Zogby's poll

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews839.html

[GBD4]

6. awesome!

thanks for putting that link into the thread. :)

[rasputin1952]

18. Welcome to DU...and thanks for the link!

:toast: :party: :hi:

[auburngrad82]

23. Zogby Poll

The most striking part of the poll to me is that Kerry/Edwards leads among progressives, moderates, and liberals by wide margins and Dick/Bush lead only among conservatives. Surely there are more Americans that fit into the first three categories than there are conservatives. Now, if we can only get them to vote...

[newyawker99]

33. Hi auburngrad82!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[calico1]

34. I mentioned this in another thread...

I was watching on the news the other night a report about how polling today has changed because of the fact that more and more people are getting rid of their landlines and just using a cell phone. There are no public lists of cell phone users like there are with regular phone lines. I am inclined to think that more Progressives, Liberals and Moderates would be into having just a cell phone. I somehow can't imagine too many people in rural areas or people that are very Conservative or "old-fashioned" getting rid of their landlines in exchange for only cell phones. I could be wrong, but in any case I would think that this would have an outcome on the results in the polling that would be more in our favor. I hope so anyway.

[wurzel]

5. We just have to get the South to do itself a big favor.

Take a long hard look at what this Bush Republic Party really stands for..... This is NOT your father's Republican Party.

[Yupster]

15. Cou;dn't be their father's Republican Party

because a generation ago there weren't any Republicans in the south.

[auburngrad82]

24. The new conservative south

The south went conservative 40 years ago when the Civil Rights Act was passed. The racism that turned the south against the Democratic party is still very evident in the Republican party.

The 2000 races in GA and SC where the republicans vowed to get the confederate flag flying over the state buildings.

The rumors spread by the Bush campaign about McCain's "dark skinned love child".

Trent Lott's asserting in 2001 what he first said 20 years before, that if Strom Thurmond had been elected president we wouldn't have the "problems" we have today.

Bush's opposition to anything affirmative action related.

I've lived in the south most of my life and I hate the fact that racism still exists.

[wurzel]

32. Those "Southern Democrats" were "Republicans".

But I was referring to what used to be called Populist Republicans.

[Dardi]

8. That's a big assumption

and Kerry & Edwards are enjoying a bounce right now. Kerry and Edwards can probably be competitive in North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, West Virginia Tennessee, Louisians and Arkansas. They'll be happy to pick up any 2 smaller states or, obviously, Florida. However, they may only take West Virginia. According to Larry Sabato, if either W. Va. or Nevada go for Bush and the rest of the states go as he predicts, the House will be choosing the President:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/electoratemap.php?state=NM

[quaoar]

9. Louisiana

Kerry has a real shot at carrying Louisiana.

[Dardi]

13. Like I said

It'll be competitive.

[Hippo_Tron]

19. I'm unfortunately a pessimist in that regard

It's true that basically every state office and both houses of the legislature are dems but unfortunately they are "conservative" democrats and very pro-war. The GOP will spend lots of money portraying Kerry as a "taxachusetts liburl" who is out of touch with southern values. This will be a red state unless Bush falls below 40% approval.

[hedda_foil]

10. WTF????

Overall approval of President Bush’s job performance moved up two points this month to 49%, with more than half of respondents expressing disapproval of the Bush administration’s performance on the economy (59%); foreign policy (54%); health care (68%); education (63%); and the environment (60%).



How the hell can a substantial number of people who disapprove of everything he's doing approve of the job he's doing?

[jab105]

12. Becausse * has scared them into thinking that if they dont support him...

then they are unpatriotic!!

[RichV]

17. Remember

God, guns, and gays. It's cultural. There was a good article on this somewhere recently -- maybe Slate? Discussed how GOP uses cultural issues to get white rural southerners to vote for the GOP even though they're harming themselves economically by doing so.

[One Taste]

20. hopefully someone can find this

I looked to no avail.

[Kahuna]

16. Lil bushie will have to spend money in the south.

I love it!

[radfringe]

21. some other numbers

http://www.pollingreport.com/

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm
General Election Trial Heats: (some poll results are BEFORE official announcement of Edwards being on the ticket)

Zogby: bush* 44% Kerry 46%
Associated Press-Ipsos poll: bush* 49% Kerry 45%
CBS: bush*44% Kerry 49%
NBC: bush*41% Kerry 49%
American Research Group Poll: bush* 45% Kerry 49%

[flpoljunkie]

25. Thank Tweety for bringing it up twice last night on his show!

Things are definitely trending in the right direction here in the South.

[dusty64]

27. Good news.

x

[DaveSZ]

30. The South has always been conservative

Jessie Helms, Strom Thurmond, Trent Lott, and Phil Grahm were all (Dixie)rats.

[fujiyama]

31. Regional polls

don't really make much sense, but if this is how good Bush is doing, then it's not that impressive. The south is his base, just as the Northeast and the "Left Coast" are ours. Losing states in either region makes winning much more difficult.

However, the south isn't quite monolithic. Democrats don't have a shot in AL and MS, just as the republicans have no shot in NY and MA.

As long as Kerry remains competetive in states like AR and WV he should be okay. The deep south is lost though. With Edwards, NC, TN, and VA could be competetive as well, which should cause a headache for Bush.

The key really is appealing to people with "southern values" and regions with a "southern culture" -- places all over the midwest and even the northeast like parts of OH, PA, and WI. I think Edwards will help here, because he sounds moderate, but talks populist...appealing to moderates, while not alienating liberals.

[TexasSissy]

35. Wow! Wowzeewowwow! Who'd have thought?