408 Pledged 297 Super Delegates

[AllentownJake]

The Math

Hillary needs 436 61% remaining

Obama needs 299 42% Remaining

Assuming current polls best i.e most favorable polls for her case scenario for Hillary

Hillary picks up 8 delegates (12 point win) from Indiana and Obama picks up 5 for NC (6 point win)

Anything less than 60% in either state is a defeat for Hillary.

After next Tuesday there will be 217 pledged delegates remaining.

Clinton 1684 Needs 341 66% remaining

Obama 1819 Needs 206 needs 40% remaining

Remaining 514

After May 6 anything less than a 66% or 34% margin of Victory is a defeat for Clinton. Anything above 40% is a victory for Obama.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

1. 12 in Indy--- 6 in NC?

:rofl:

[AllentownJake]

2. Most optimistic

For HRC.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

6. Most.

Good day, sir. :)

[rocktivity]

3. Of course, the current scenario that's being peddled is Hillary's "big comeback"

based on "blowout victories" in KY and WV. Fact is, she'll have to pull your 66% in ALL the remaining states, not just those two.


Though your methodology is more scientific, it dovetails perfectly into mine:

41-point or more margin of victory = blowout for Hillary

36 - 40 points = victory for Hillary

30 - 35 points = good, but not good enough for Hillary

11 – 29 points = wash for Hillary

5 - 10 points = useless for Hillary

1 - 4 points = concession speech for Hillary


If Obama wins NC and gets 40% of IN, it will be the official beginning of the end.

:headbang:
rocknation

[Indenturedebtor]

4. Thanks for putting it together

'preciate it ;)

[Coexist]

5. thanks but the Hillary campaign has already moved beyond the "sham maths"

and is focusing on harassing the SDs like a candy-wantin' 4 year old to see if they give in the 475,912th time they beg.

[FlyingSquirrel]

7. The math is changing by the hour

After days and days of nothing, 4 supers have endorsed Obama within the last 2 days (and I think I just heard another one, not sure if it's included on DemConWatch yet)

If Obama gets 91 more Superdelegate endorsements, he can clinch with 50% in the remaining primaries