Obama only needs 134 more pledged delegates for a majority (will get them by 5/20)

[book_worm]

Obama needs only 134 more pledged delegates to win a majority of the delegates from the primaries. Here's what's coming up:

Guam 4 delegates
Indiana 72 delegates
North Carolina 115 delegates
West Virginia 28 delegates
Kentucky 51 delegates
Oregon 52 delegates

Total: 322 delegates

If Obama gets roughly 40% of those delegates he will have the majority of the pledged delegates by May 20th the date of the Oregon and Kentucky primaries. He will do better than that. He will win North Carolina (despite what SUSA says today it will be by double digits) and he will win Oregon, a strongly anti-war state. He will do well in Indiana (I don't know if he will win or not, but he will get a good chunk of delegates) and while West Virginia and Kentucky are Hillary's last strongholds he will still get a 25-30 delegates out of them.

Most of the Super delegates will not overrule the winner of the pledged delegate race. Obama will effectively have sewn up the nomination in about 3 weeks.

http://www.barackobama.com/index.php

[tritsofme]

1. If Hillary keeps competitive in NC and wins IN

And if it becomes likely that Hillary will win the popular vote with Florida, it definitely won't be over.

1627 ≠ 2024

[cliffordu]

3. In the next life.

[book_worm]

4. Not likely

NC will be a solid victory and Obama and Hillary may very well split Indiana, but it's likely that Obama will get more delegates in one week than Hillary and more than she netted out of PA. Florida is not an issue. They will be seated ultimately in some kind of compromise, but it won't change the current race.

[undeterred]

5. When pigs fly planes.

[Life Long Dem]

8. After NC and IN she will need 80% for the remain states!

I wouldn't get my hopes up too high. It's time to face reality.

[Zhade]

9. Keep dreaming, FL will not count.

NT!

[rocktivity]

11. Hillary will have to win nearly 65% of the vote in ALL the remaining contests

to "keep it competitive":

41-point or more margin of victory = blowout

36 - 40 points = victory

30 - 35 points = good, but not good enough

11 – 29 points = a wash

5 - 10 points = useless

1 - 4 points = concession speech


:headbang:
rocknation

[TheDoorbellRang]

24. After PA, that margin is up to 71%

Using TheGreenPapers and DemConWatch stats:

Clinton 1336 + 291 = 1627 (50% + 1 of 3253 total pledged delgates)
Obama 1490 + 137 = 1627

408 remaining pledged delegates in last nine races

Clinton needs 291 of 408 delegates to get majority, or 71%
Obama needs 137 of 408 delegates to get majority, or 34%

It doesn't look like Edwards' 19 delegates will come into play at all.

[Yael]

13. Is 1627 half plus 1 of pledged?

[TheDoorbellRang]

25. Yes. There's a total of 3253 pledged delegates

Re super delegates, right now there is a total of 794, but that number has been shifting up and down one or two since we started. The pledged delegate total is fixed, however.

[Yael]

29. Thanks!! n/t

[Hawkeye-X]

21. Sigh. Popular vote != delegate count.

Florida will not be counted until 5/31 - long after the primaries are officially over.

And Obama has the delegate lead, and more SD's are endorsing him daily.

No defections from Obama group to Clinton group, and yet a few SD's have switched from Clinton to Obama.

Hawkeye-X

[Gore1FL]

30. two problems minmally

1> Popular vote is a canard

2> The majority of Pledged delegates is (4048 - 795)/2 or 1626.5 rounding up 20 1627

adding current pledged delegates to that total = 1627 + 240 = 1867.

2025-1867 = 158

After May 20 there are 86 pledged delegates + 294 Super delegates (not counted at the time of this post) for a total of 380.

158/380 = 42%

It is both unlikely that Obama will lose 60% of the remaining pledged delegates to Clinton, or that Clinton could find 58.5% of the remaining SD's.

Of course as the op stated, it is unrealistic that Obama will only get 40% of the delegates between now and May 20%, as he received over 46% of them in PA, and that was supposed to be the crushing blow of Hillary.

[undeterred]

2. YAY!

:grouphug: :bounce: :kick: :party: :toast: :beer: :toast: :party: :kick: :bounce: :grouphug:

:grouphug: :bounce: :kick: :party: :toast: :beer: :toast: :party: :kick: :bounce: :grouphug:

:grouphug: :bounce: :kick: :party: :toast: :beer: :toast: :party: :kick: :bounce: :grouphug:

:grouphug: :bounce: :kick: :party: :toast: :beer: :toast: :party: :kick: :bounce: :grouphug:

:grouphug: :bounce: :kick: :party: :toast: :beer: :toast: :party: :kick: :bounce: :grouphug:

[Lucky 13]

6. Oh noes! Stop assaulting me with math and facts!

:eyes:

At this point they are just repeating the same words over and over and hoping if they wish and hope hard enough that their dreams will come true.

"Hillary is winning! Hillary is winning! Hillary is winning!"


Nope. Still losing.

[MonkeyFunk]

7. And having the majority of pledged delegates

isn't meaningful.

2025 or bust.

[book_worm]

10. Nope, it's meaningful because it's likely most super delegates won't overturn the will of

the people.

[MonkeyFunk]

14. You mistakenly assume

that having the majority of of pledged delegates means the majority of democratic voters support you. That is not necessarily the case.

You're inventing a new requirement that superdelegates have to go with the pledged delegates. That's just not true.

[Yael]

17. Nobody is inventing anything

A bunch of SD's have already STATED that they will go with whoever wins the most pledged.

[book_worm]

18. And then on June 3rd he will only add to his majority of the pledged delegates

with wins in South Dakota and Montana--two states in regions he has dominated. The Supers will not overturn the will of the people.

[Life Long Dem]

19. SD's are going for Obama right now.

It would make no sense that they would overturn.

[Zhade]

12. You wish SO HARD that were true.

NT!

[Yael]

15. And how many have taken the pledge to support the winner of the most pledged?

I believe Nancy Pelosi kicked that off, but it may have been Christine.

[TheDoorbellRang]

26. There is quite a number of super delegates that have said

they will endorse whoever has the majority of pledged delegates. Those who have said so are in what has been dubbed the "Pelosi Club."

[book_worm]

27. yep, and he's on his way to doing it.

[Tribetime]

16. let's just get 70% of the 191 in the next week=133.7 round to 134

[Life Long Dem]

22. Just what she got in PA for the white vote. Not much of a task for her.

She got 70% of the white vote in PA. :crazy:

[Robeson]

20. Super delgates are already coming to the realization that Hillary is cancer for...

...congressional elections. Too many close races for too many congress critters. Hillary would result in block loses of segments of our coalition. They know that.

[book_worm]

23. That's true and if you look at the Senate Super delegates still left to endorse

we got Harkin in Iowa up for re-election and Obama in the polls wins Iowa while Hill loses by double digits. You got Landreau in LA who needs a big African-American turnout to win--she is more likely to get that with Obama. We got a big senate race in Colorado and RAS last week had Obama up by three against McCain while HIll is down by double digits. Another key race in Minnesota--Obama beats McCain by 12 while Hill is even.

[Robeson]

28. kick.

[book_worm]

31. kick

[crankychatter]

32. is it possible, with an overwhelming SD surge for 2024?

just curious really...

I think we need to pull out of this protracted BS SOON or forfeit the White House

So, is it possible?