I love these new CNN/Time candidate vs. candidate numbers!

[Padraig18]

"After the first few primaries in previous elections, there were only a few candidates remaining in the race. Suppose this happens in 2004 and there are only two candidates left in the race for the Democratic nomination. If you had to choose, would you vote for Howard Dean or ?"


12/03 - 1/04 Dean:46 Clark:32 Unsure:22 .




12/03 - 1/04 Dean:50 Lieberman:32 Unsure:18 .


12/03 - 1/04 Dean:53 Edwards:24 Unsure:23 .


12/03 - 1/04 Dean:53 Gephart:28 Unsure:19 .


12/03 - 1/04 Dean:51 Kerry:29 Unsure:20 .


http://pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. It does look as

the doctor is in

Buhs is alos leading by five points, this is well within striking distance

The ipsos reid for Bush is actually lower than his father's as
well

Rove must be having nightmares

[Padraig18]

2. Rove is prolly EATING Valium like candy.

A candidate who may be tanking, an FBI investigation focusing on him, etc. . Wonder if he'll be this administration's Vince Foster?

[nadinbrzezinski]

4. Or follow Rush to recovery?

[Padraig18]

6. LOL!

I'd rather him do his recovery in an orange jumpsuit with the words "Federal Prisoner" stenciled on it. :P

[nadinbrzezinski]

8. That I suspect is comnng

for at least Rush...

Money landering is a CLASS ONE Federal Felony

[jpgpenn]

13. NO, He's throwing the biggest party..

you have ever seen. Heck it was Rove and his major media connections that pumped Dean up from nothing.

[Padraig18]

23. Proof of that libelous garbage?

Well? :eyes:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

36. Psst!

nt

[bitchkitty]

42. Er, um, uh....

[MercutioATC]

44. Conspiracy theories abound....

:tinfoilhat:

[jeter]

3. These numbers are very good for Dean

No doubt about it.

[Padraig18]

5. yep.

:)

[Auntie Bush]

7. They are also good for Clark

They show he is in 2nd place. Pretty good for someone who has only run for 3 mos. vs. someone who has been running and collecting money for well over a year.

[Padraig18]

9. Also true.

But they're positively dismal for Gephart, Edwards and Kerry...

[nadinbrzezinski]

10. I am starting to smell

dean \ Clark ticket no particular order

to be quite honest, they balance each other PERFECTLY

[Padraig18]

12. I agree.

That's been my 'dream ticket' all along. :)

[Toucano]

11. Unsure and Edwards are neck and neck!

No offense to Edwards or supporters. Just an observation.

[killbotfactory]

14. Dean is unelectable!

And he'll never raise enough money!
And his support will go away after the war!
And he's too angry!
And he's peaked WAAAAY too soon!

[Padraig18]

15. Troublemaker!

:P

[nadinbrzezinski]

18. You know I still remember my first meet uop

we were five I ain't kidding

These days I have no clue, I messed up a knee so I have nto been able to go IN MONTHS

But it has definitely grown

Oh and for the record before February of last year I did not give a damn

My question for Dean was, Patriot related and... the budget.

I think Dean will be the president of the US, in 2005 and he will even get back the senate if not the House... he touched on the anger that the DLC has not been able to capitalize, and DK, has not been able to focus upon either,(this is purely from a running the campaign commentary, since DK is also a SOLID candidate)

[slinkerwink]

16. they just keep on saying that every day every time there's good news

about Dean, or his success.....;-)

[janx]

19. And he's too liberal!

--And he's from New England so he won't win any southern states!
--And he's not a soldier, and we NEED a soldier to beat Bush in this terrible time of terror!
--And he has "plateaued" (the new term; "peaked" is so 2003)

[Padraig18]

25. Ah, yes, the 'passionately centrist' liberal.

:P

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

43. You forgot to mention that he's too angry.

I mean, like really, really angry!
Way too angry!
Eyes-buggin' angry!
Super angry!
An anger never seen before!
Hopping mad ang...


Never mind. You did mention it.

[unfrigginreal]

17. It sure looks like Dean is close to claiming majority party support.

I LOVE those numbers too! :D

[Padraig18]

35. Aren't they great?

:)

[bain_sidhe]

20. Not gonna stomp on your parade, friend

Congratulations! Now, when Clark becomes better known and the polls reverse to show that Clark is winning, I expect the same courtesy. :-)

(Sorry, I just HAD to say that. I'll go sit in the corner now.)

Ok, I'm back. The reason I don't mind giving you your props for this is because the poll had good news for Democrats in general. ALL Democrats were within striking distance of Bush, which is far better than earlier polls showed. I truly hope more polls will reflect this trend. Plus, it helps to settle some of the FUD I feel deep in my heart sometimes when I contemplate the possibility of Dean being the nominee.

[Padraig18]

22. You're forgiven AND correct.

This is good news for Democrats period. I ahve NEVER believed that *'s support was deep.

[CalebHayes]

21. Yeah and Dean vs. Bush?

That is why Clark must be our nominee

[Padraig18]

24. You might want to check the numbers, because...

... Dean does BETTER than Clark, my friend.

[JVS]

26. Ohhh, the richness of it all!

[tedoll78]

27. Aren't they great?

If these numbers are correct (which is still uncertain), then that means that the nomination is pretty much sewn-up. Candidate X and Candidate Y can drop-out and ask their supporters to support Candidate Z, but Dean would still come out on top. Dean is the only person who can screw himself over with the voters at this point.

I wonder if this means that the other candidates will actually spend more time attacking Bush? Some of them will, bless 'em, but some just won't let it go..

[Hoppin_Mad]

28. They're getting better every day - I'm sending 5 pro-Dean letters to Iowa

Undecideds today. I urge all fellow Dean supporters to write as well.

[Scott Lee]

29. boot.

[Padraig18]

30. Dean is opening up a WIDE lead in IA.

Last poll I saw was 41-28 over Gephart. :)

[ozone_man]

34. Wow!

Is there any truth to the rumor that Tom Harkin might endorse Dean?

[Padraig18]

31. Kick

[TeacherCreature]

32. What I do not understand

I know that everyone has their own candidates and people feel strongly about them. People who are supporting Dean are particularly happy. However I would think everyone would be glad there is a candidate who is doing well and can get a grassroots campaign going like the one Dean has organized.
I know there are disruptors here at DU, but they don't account for all the bitterness. It is really disheartening that people who were determined to get rid of bush a few months ago now seem more intent on getting rid of Dean.

[Padraig18]

33. I know.

:shrug:

Wish they'd turn some of that venom on *...

[CTLawGuy]

37. Clark is most electable...

against Dean ;)

[Scott Lee]

38. Oh you devious thing

I like it.

[kodi]

39. examine the meal not just the menu

nestled down at the bottom of that poll is a revealing item that shows dean's name recognition(@76%) is 50% great than clark's (@52%) at this point.

3 in 4 know of dean, 2 in 4 know of clark.

one should be cautious about this poll trumpeting dean's lead over clark, since dean's lead is not that great considering the aforementioned factor. and all one has to do to see this working is that 82% recognize lieberman and he polls the same as clark (and does as well against bush as anyone but dean).

honestly i think dean will be the nominee, but clark is starting to cut away support from other candidates who realize that their preferred choice is hopeless and are gravitating to clark a little more than to dean.

a dean/clark or clark/dean ticket would be alright by me.

[incapsulated]

40. Interesting

It confirms my suspicions about these polls and simple name recognition being a big factor.

Once the primaries get going, more people will pay attention to all the candidates, not just the names they hear repeated over and over in the media.

A lot of people have heard of Dean, but know practically nothing about him. They know a lot more about Lieberman, for example, aside from his name. They also know Kerry, at least a little, he's run enough!

[DFLforever]

41. It's taken nearly a year, but people certainly are beginning to know the

name of Howard Dean...and it's interesting to see how curious people are about him. I think it's because many in the country have been looking for someone 'new' - someone who might be able to lead us out of darkness.

[MercutioATC]

45. You DO realize that you're contradicting yourself, right?

You say that Dean's doing better than Clark because of name recognition and then state that Lieberman has even greater name recognition than Dean, but does worse in the polls...as a logic problem, with the limited data provided, Clark should continue to keep a low profile to win...

[kodi]

46. no, I'm not. & i will leave for another time comments about your own logic

Bush 51
Dean 46
Not Sure 3

Bush 52
Lieberman 46
Not sure 2

Bush 53
Clark 43
Not Sure 3

Dean polls the best against Bush, with Lieberman a point back (52/46/2).

The higher figure for Lieberman against Bush as opposed to Clark’s is almost certainly a result of Lieberman’s better name recognition (and most likely Dean’s too).

Evidence for this would be that Lieberman and Clark track the same against Dean when polling Democrats (even though Lieberman is recognized by 82% of those polled and Clark by only 52% of those polled, with Dean at 76% name recognition).

But, the higher numbers for Dean versus Lieberman amongst Democrats is a result of policy issues.

Why?

Both have nearly equal name recognition and are statistically equal versus Bush. Amongst only Democrats, the difference in the numbers of Dean’s versus Lieberman’s is a reflection not of differing name recognition (since they are approximately equal) but of Lieberman’s policy stances as accessed by Democrats.

So with name recognition being equal between Dean and Lieberman, another factor predominates, viz., policy differences.

A different factor, viz., name recognition is more likely responsible for Dean outpacing Clark against Bush, and clearly internally amongst Democrats polled.

Why?

Because even though Clark tracks worse than Lieberman against Bush, he tracks equal to Lieberman amongst Democrats.

And the next question is “Why?”

Clark’s policy stances are to the left of Lieberman’s, and more closely aligned with Dean’s who has approximately equal name recognition as Lieberman, with both @50% greater name recognition than Clark.

That you don’t see Lieberman track higher than Clark amongst Democrats is directly related to policy issues, since if it was name recognition alone Lieberman’s numbers would be expected to be higher.

But, the relationship between Dean’s numbers and Lieberman's amongst Democrats is not the same as between Lieberman’s and Clark’s, as evinced by Dean’s lead over Lieberman amongst Democrats, but Lieberman’s equal standing with Dean versus Bush.

For while Clark appeals to the same number of Democrats as Lieberman, people know of Lieberman (and Dean) 50% more (unless you really think that all things being equal, viz., name recognition, Lieberman actually appeals to Democrats as much as Clark amongst Democrats, which no reasonable person believes).

This also indicates that Lieberman appeals to more centrist/moderate voters than Dean or Clark.

[MercutioATC]

47. A detailed response...one that deserves a reply. I promise to provide one

on a night when I'm not smoking cigars and drinking port.

I'm serious. I do appreciate that you provided a detailed response, and I'm hoping that you'll continue to monitor the thread for the next couple of days. I really do want to respond intelligently (and it ain't gonna happen tonight).