Obama Supporters: Let's Stop Pretending.

[cali]

OK, it's not all of us, but it is a lot of Obama supporters insisting he can't lose the nomination. He can. I don't think he will, but if he tanks in NC and IN and gets (as he will) blown out of the water in WV and KY, SDs will have good reason to go with Clinton, and sorry, I would support that. Why? Because winning in November counts. Because I believe that McCain is light years worse than Clinton. Because I think the Supreme Court is more important than my candidate preference. I have never been a fan of Hillary Clinton's, but that's a far shot from seeing her as a neocon republican.

The Wright thing is a blow. It is a factor. And though I don't think Wright will blow up Obama's candidacy, it could be the thing that starts to unravel it. Is it fair? No. Does it speak to the racism still extant in this country and the double standard applied to Obama re patriotism, etc? Yes. But I live in the real world, and if Obama's candidacy tanks over this, he shouldn't be the nominee.

I support Obama strongly. I think he'll overcome this. I deplore the premature grave dancing that many hillary supporters here are engaging in, but facts are stubborn things, and the fact is that other candidates have been taken down over equally suspect matters.

Everything now hinges on NC and IN. If Obama only ekes out a win in NC, or worse, loses and loses by more than 6 or 7 points in IN, it's hard to see how he survives to win the nomination.

Flame the fuck away.

[slinkerwink]

1. What I'm hearing is that Obama won't eke out a win in NC, it'll be a double-digit win

Keep your chin up.

[cali]

3. thanks, slink

I really hope you're right.

[slinkerwink]

5. I know I'm right. You'll see a lot more fire out of Obama this week.

[Labors of Hercules]

78. If you saw his supporters here in Chapel Hill...

You'd know it's not just him you're gonna see a lot more fire out of... I don't know yet how many new volunteers we signed up from the event, but it was huge.

[ClericJohnPreston]

131. Would that be like all the images

you posted from my hometown, Philly?

Lotta good that did him.

[Labors of Hercules]

178. It did him a great deal of good...

considering Hillary was ahead by 25 points not 3 weeks earlier.

[northzax]

117. what polls are you looking at?

SurveyUSA, who has been consistently the most accurate this election cycle, puts it at 5 points, down from 12 a week ago (remember when everyone talked about how Obama cut into Hillary's lead in Penn? wait till that comes back, if this is a 5 point win for Obama)

[frickaline]

133. Here's a nice place for some poll data

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_primary-275.html

was looking this up today myself.

[crankychatter]

2. I knew it

.

[cali]

4. and just what is it you know?

[mtnsnake]

129. Knew what?

Got something to say, or not?

[Schema Thing]

6. I guess I don't get the premise you're putting up:

"but if he tanks in NC and IN and gets (as he will) blown out of the water in WV and KY, SDs will have good reason to go with Clinton"


Why?

You are a supporter (as am I), and we both know that can happen precisely because of the current SHIT.

So you are saying the *current SHIT* should decide the presidency of the United States?

We all know the polls will be down for Obama, and up for Clinton in the coming week or two. Because of SHIT.


Fuck that.

Do the right thing, Super Delegates.

[RichGirl]

32. The Wright situation shouldn't decide the presidency.

But, the Wright situation reveals a deeper problem. If you had imagine a few months ago that something could hurt Obama's popularity, you would never in a million years thought it could be his own minister. If this can hurt him, I shutter to think what will happen when the republicans get their evil hands on him.

I did not make my decision to support Clinton lightly. I love, respect and admire Obama and if he is the nom, I'll work hard for him and if he should become president, I'll be thrilled. But, it seems his popularity went up too fast and he became more of a celebrity than someone running for president. Yes, he's a great guy, but when his own supporters can't think of what his greatest accomplishments are, then that is not a structure to build on. A campaign built on hope is not solid ground.

[Schema Thing]

49. That's a thin argument, imo

[RichGirl]

54. Of itself, it is a thin arguement.

But, add it to the whole. Obama lacks experience. He's running on hope and good judgement, both illusive. He at least needs to be strong. How strong is he if he can be toppled, even temporarily, by his own minister.

This is a VERY close race. Yes, Obama is a little bit ahead, but look at Hillary's numbers. A huge amount of people have voted for her and she has a huge amount of delegates. Just because Obama's numbers are a little bit higher, doesn't make her numbers small. There's an arguement that there will be outrage if the SD's go with Hillary, and against the will of the people. But, keep in mind, that the will of almost half the people, and the will of the people in MI and FL is for Hillary. Obama needs something more solid to distinguish him than rock star popularity.

[cali]

65. well, imo, Obama has nearly as much experience as Clinton

to say he's running only on hope and judgment is quite disengenuous. His policy proposals are every bit as detailed as hers. And he hasn't been toppled by anything yet.

In some ways the race is close, in others it's not. Obama is significantly ahead in PDs. It's not a matter of 10 or 20 or even 50 or 75.

And sorry, MI in particular doesn't and shouldn't count. Obama has far more than rock star popularity. He's run a far, far superior campaign than Clinton. He's raised the most money. His strategy has been undeniably good. His platform is every bit as detailed as Clinton's.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

76. He has more legislative experience than Clinton.

Next.

[cliffordu]

107. Some of the these talking points sound awful familiar.....

Obama not solid.
Lacks experience
Just about Hope
Not strong

Mi and Fla
She ALMOST has the numbers......(deserves it)


So: Are the phone banks right there or do you have to go to another building to do the cold calls?

Are they still making you pay for your own coffee because she's broke or do you guys get the McDonalds Lattes....

Get paid up front, kid.....You can never tell when that money's going to dry up again,.

[Lannigan]

121. I volunteered for Hillary in PA

and none of us had to PAY for anything. There was food and support galore, all provided by donors.

I wish the tall tales would stop.

[goclark]

And now all of her bills are paid?

[Cha]

132. Tell hilary to stop lying then.

And quit acting like she doesn't lie..you look :silly:

"Why Hillary’s Lies are Important"

- March 24, 2008, 9:53PM
Hillary Clinton has been caught in a series of lies and misrepresentations during the primary campaign. To some of her supporters, these lies may seem trivial and insignificant and even politics-as-usual. However, please consider the serious impact of these lies by placing them in the context of the past seven years of the Bush Administration and the legacy of expanded executive power that he leaves behind. In particular, consider the dangerous message that the Clinton campaign sends by employing similar tactics to achieve her political goals.

1. The Florida and Michigan Primaries / The Delegate Count
Hillary agreed to honor the DNC’s decision to strip Florida and Michigan of its delegates after their primaries were moved up into January in express violation of the DNC rules. She did not change her position on the validity of these primaries until she found herself unexpectedly behind in the delegate count and desperately needed to claim the delegates that she had won in these unsanctioned contests. As her chances of winning the nomination became increasingly slim in recent weeks, we have been presented with threatening and desperate lines of reasoning for why these primary results should count as is. At the same time, Clinton and her surrogates continue to propose different metrics for determining who should win the nomination even though there is and has been a clearly defined process in place for several decades.

Please think about the implications of changing election rules after the fact. We have suffered through at least one stolen presidential election and the manipulation of untold numbers of Congressional and state elections through various vote tampering and voter intimidation schemes used by the Republicans and their allies. The American people (and especially Democratic voters) have lost faith in the integrity of the election process. The Clinton strategy to continually change the rules for determining the Democratic Party nominee sets a dangerous precedent that could lead to increasingly un-Democratic elections in the future if it is allowed to succeed. If anything, we need more transparency and methods of accountability in our elections in order to repair the damage done in recent years and to restore our confidence in the Government.

2. The Bosnia Fabrication / Exaggerated Experience Claims
Hillary fabricated a story about a dangerous, life-risking visit to Bosnia in order to gain stature as an experienced negotiator in international conflicts and war. While this type of embellishment can seem almost comical, it represents a willingness to distort reality in order to influence the public perception. This is the same type of distortion that the Bush administration used to justify the war in Iraq, although the magnitude of the lie is certainly on a different scale. The Bush administration falsified reports, cherry-picked intelligence, used unreliable sources, and employed fear-mongering tactics to convince the American public that our safety was at risk and as such, you were either with us or with the terrorists. The lies used by President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney are impeachable offenses and should be condemned by all Americans. Sadly, the Clinton campaign seems to have shown a shocking willingness to employ the same tactics to create a more favorable reality and to rely on divide-and-conquer rhetoric to weaken opposition. Her attempts to frighten the American people by conjuring up 3 AM phone calls are bad enough, but her vote of confidence in John McCain over Barack Obama should be seen as treason against the Democratic Party.

3. NAFTA
Hillary lied about her position on NAFTA and used her lies in a calculated way to influence the Ohio primary. Recently released White House documents confirm that Hillary had been an active proponent of NAFTA prior to its passage, and she has continued to support it publicly in her speeches and memoir. However, while campaigning in Ohio, she claimed to have been privately against NAFTA during the Clinton presidency and believes that it should be rewritten to protect American jobs and workers. This type of maneuvering is reminiscent of the behind-closed-doors policy-making that the Bush administration has used during the past seven years. Specifically, Bush and Cheney have made policy decisions without providing transparency to Congress or the public, and President Bush has repeatedly ignored the rule of law by issuing signing statements and disregarding the parts of the laws that he doesn’t agree with. If we cannot trust Hillary to be truthful about her positions on critical legislative issues now, how can we trust that she will be truthful as president?

These are just three examples that illustrate the concerns we should have with a candidate who demonstrates a sense of entitlement to the nomination and is willing to lie, misrepresent, threaten, and divide in order to obtain the nomination. President Bush and the neoconservative movement have greatly harmed this country by the creation of an imperial-like presidency. This election is not just about whether a Democrat or Republican wins but if the checks and balances are restored to the three branches of government. The framers of the Constitution were in such fear of an imperial president that mechanisms for impeachment are prominently and explicitly included in the Constitution. If Hillary Clinton is willing to use lies and deceit to win the Democratic nomination, what assurances do we have that she will not continue to use them once she is president?
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/03/why-h ...

<snip>

"Her response to being caught lying to a military audience, when she invented a story about being under sniper fire in Bosnia, was to say it wasn't surprising she got some things wrong, seeing how she spoke millions of words every day. What a magnificent idea, that if you say lots of words some of them are bound to be fantastic lies. So if you listen carefully to horse-racing commentators they say things like "And it's Teddy's Boy still leading three furlongs out as they come up to the fourth last fence with Nip and Tuck two lengths behind by the way I fought a tiger once, punched it clean out and they're all safely over."


<lots more>
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/opinion/article3 ...

"It's not that lying to pad the resume, avoid Indictment or to advance her political fortune is anything new for Hillary Clinton. She famously said she was named after Sir Edmund Hillary (debunked); she told New Yorkers she was a Yankee fan when she lived in Chicago (debunked); she told rural New Yorkers that she was a "duck hunter" (debunked); she claimed that her daughter Chelsea was jogging around the World Trade Center at the time of the 9/11 attack (debunked by Chelsea herself.) And, those subpoenaed Rose Law billing records just happened to show up one day on a hallway table in the most monitored home in America!"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

[eridani]

82. Ant the Rethugs won't use Tuzla?

Gimme a big break! She can't win because all she has done lately is stand up and agree with him, spouting Rethug framing.

[lastliberalintexas]

176. LOL, I guess the memo has changed today

I thought Obama supporters were supposed to be pissed that the super delegates might dare decide the election?


The hypocrisy from some posters in both camps is hilarious.

[indimuse]

7. k&r

@>->-->--

[Bake]

120. Wow. That is a FANTASTIC pic of Hillary!!

She looks terrific there!!

Bake

[shadowknows69]

151. She looks like Neil Diamond

Not that that's a bad thing. I love Neil Diamond.

[Auntie Bush]

148. She looks like a real fighter and she'll fight for us!

[jonestonesusa]

155. She'll have to fight for us...

after 5 years of troop deployments to Iraq has reduced our military readiness!

[Auntie Bush]

160. She did? Wow, I didn't know newly elected Jr. Senators had so much power.

Got to give her credit for that. If I remember correctly, Kerry, Dodd, Biden, Edwards and many others (the majority of Dems) also voted for to IWR. Why is Hillary the only one hated for her vote...to let the inspectors back in...remember? Wasn't it bush* who didn't go back to the UN as promised and instead attacked Iraq? Isn't he the liar?

[jonestonesusa]

167. There's a difference between hated and criticized.

At no point have I said that I "hate" Hillary Clinton. While some may use that word to describe their feelings about her, I do not. However, I do criticize her for that vote on Iraq, which she has always defended, even if she says "Bush deceived me." I don't believe that - I think that most of us here on this site could see through that deception; certainly our Democratic allies in the Senate should have seen through it too.

Of the other Senators you mentioned - I have to say that I'm not a fan of DINO's at all, who have largely been caretaking for the Bush administration. I agree with several of those senators on their general domestic or foreign policies, but the IWR vote was a moment of truth. Of the senators you mentioned, I voted for none of them in Democratic primary; I like Dodd better than the rest because he's at least been forthright in opposing domestic surveillance. I did vote and volunteer for Kerry in the '04 general election, though it was a difficult decision, but I wanted to see a Democrat in the presidency and I have always voted either Democrat or occasionally Green when I feel that Democrats campaign like liberals and govern like conservatives. Biden in particular was responsible for the pre-Iraq War hearings and did not do well with sustaining a robust debate. I certainly did not support him for president.

So, I agree with you in that we need to challenge the enabling of Republican policies by any Democrat who does so, with everything from NCLB and NAFTA to the war in Iraq enabled by significant Democratic support. I have little positive to say about these kinds of "compromising" and at times I feel that I no longer have a home in the Democratic party as a liberal voter.

I'm far less impressed with Edwards as many on this board, given that his political experience is less than Obama's and he gets a free pass - I've raised this point several times on DU and have never gotten an adequate response as to why Obama's experience is so much in question and Edwards' experience isn't. Plus, he foolishly voted for the war, as did Clinton. Though Edwards did apologize for his vote, I ended up supporting Obama in the primary because I think his anti-war instincts are deeper and I think he's a more effective and inspiring politician, among other reasons.

Thanks for the dialogue.

[woolldog]

162. The only thinig she'll "fight for" is herself.

[rox63]

8. Obama is not going to lose NC

The demographics are very close to SC, where he won in a blow-out. Indiana is polling as a near dead-heat. It's sounds like you are buying into the anti-Obama pessimism being spread by supporters of other candidates. That's not helpful to the Obama effort. Where's the hope? Where's the yearning for change? Where's the "Yes we can" spirit?

[slinkerwink]

9. exactly. We need to keep our chin up, and not give into the groupthink currently going on.

Hillary supporters are rubbing their hands with glee right now.

[cali]

11. Sorry, I don't have a group mentality

I've never supported Obama because of vague campaign slogans about hope and change, but because of his history, temperment and judgment about such big things as the IWR and relatively little things like the bullshit gas tax holiday. Clinton and Obama aren't far apart on most issues, so it's really a matter (for me) of the qualities I listed above. I'll be phone banking later today, and I hope that such efforts will help, but I still want to live in the real world where the reality is that Obama can still lose this. I don't have to like it to recognize it.

[rox63]

18. It's all about the math

If you can add and subtract, it's pretty obvious who's winning this. Just in the last week, what has been the ratio of SD's going to the candidates? About 3 to 1 in favor of Obama. How many SD's have left Obama for Clinton? None. How many SD's have left Clinton for Obama, or have threatened to if the numbers don't support her in the end? A bunch.

[cali]

20. yes, yes. I'm aware of the SD endorsement pattern and heartened

by the four endorsements post-Wright weekend media extravaganza, but if you don't think that things can and do change, you should re-evaluate that position.

[H2O Man]

34. The current edition

of TIME has an article that covers three possible endings for this primary contest. The second one (see page 28) tells about a plan by some party members to end it in June. Of those listed in the article, one in particular has wanted to start the process earlier, after the next round. Two things were considered hold-ups: first, as Tom Daschle is quoted as saying, "They don't want to be perceived as telling voters how to vote"; and second, some of the super delegates wanted the Wright issue cleared up.

There are fewer truly "undecided" super delegates than the numbers of unannounced ones suggest. If Clinton wins both Indiana and North Carolina, it does create a problem for Obama, but not of the same type it will cause Clinton if Obama wins both. If they are split, (Clinton wins Indiana, Obama wins NC), which is likely, then the party leadership will need to assess what the potential damage to the party is if they don't take steps to end it. I think that almost everyone recognizes that if the nominee isn't already decided by the convention, that there is a significant reduction in the ability to win the White House and congressional elections in November. Rep Clyburn recently voiced the concern of a growing number of people, that a few people may be pursuing a selfish agenda that could risk what should be large democratic victories this fall. The party leadership listens to Rep Clyburn.

[futureliveshere]

26. Reality is that anything can happen. However when tempered with probability, it shows an Obama win.

[RichGirl]

35. Actually...

SC and NC are very different. As the saying goes: "North Carolina is a rose of humility, between two thorns of conceit." Those thorns being SC and VA.

[mmonk]

72. I'm not sure a quote from the 1860's still applies (though I'm from NC).

[MattNC]

104. Looking ahead

Guam - Obama (but delegate split)
NC - Obama
IN - Leans Clinton
WV - Clinton
KY - Clinton
OR - Obama
SD - Leans Obama
MT - No polling...presumably leans Obama
PR - Leans Clinton

What are you worried about?

[TexasLady]

10. Here is how I see it...

I doubt that many people outside of GDP or DU in general watch NEARLY as much about this as we do. Point two is that I don't see Obama's supporters leaving in droves over this. Sure there are perhaps a very few, but news changes as often as the weather, and apparently Hollywood is still number one on a lot of minds when it comes to 'news'. More people know about Miley Cyrus than the stuff going on about Wright.

I'm confident. Take heart, cali. Time fixes a whole lot of things.

:hi:

[RichGirl]

43. You are right.

The general public doesn't watch all this stuff the way we do. But, that also means that they haven't been witness to the negative OPINIONS, the blatant misrepresentations and character assissination that Clinton has been getting. The public sees a warm, attractive, caring and intelligent woman, who knows what she is doing.

[cali]

66. if that were true, her negatives wouldn't be so consistently high.

[jonestonesusa]

156. Only Clinton?

How can you single out Clinton as the sole recipient of character assassination during Reverend Wright week?

[graycem]

12. Well of course

I would have to agree that if he loses the remaining states, he can't win the GE. I just don't believe that's going to happen. I think he's handling this well, and he's still picking up SD's, so they apparently aren't as shaken by this whole fiasco as the MSM would like us to believe. We need to remember the SD's didn't really want to go with Clinton in '92 either because of his laundry list of women. Everybody has faults and baggage, and it is true that the Clintons have so much more. It only looks stark because Obama hasn't brought up any of her garbage.

I think he'll pull it off. He's hanging in there, and let's face it, he's running against 2 Clintons, McCain, and racism. Of course he is facing a larger challenge in the fall now that he's being pounded on by the media, but he will have time to repair it, and when the public is made truly aware of the differences between he and John McCain, they won't have a choice but to throw out the Republicans. Their bank accounts and gas tanks will be begging for a Democrat, even if he had 5 angry black pastors.

[stevenleser]

13. I strongly doubt if he loses. But, if Hillary pulls this out by being a garbageperson

which is on what she has been campaigning, garbage, I will write myself in for Prez and pull the "D" line all the way down the rest of the ticket. So, I will still vote all Democratic, just not for her.

[rodeodance]

56. Typical to blame Hillary for the Wright issue.

[eridani]

84. What about her own shitstain of a spiritual advisor? n/t

[cliffordu]

109. Woops!! There it is!!

I can't wait till the "press" figures out there's more pastorbating to be done.....

Or, maybe that's just for AA pastors.....

[Voltaire]

124. Did that poster mention the Wright issue?

Or are you feeling guilty this morning?

[stevenleser]

141. LOL, is that what IGNORED had to say?

I look back at February 6th when Obama was clearly ahead to stay and what Hillary has done to this race and this party since then and people expect me to pull the lever for her in November if she somehow steals this race? you have to be effing kidding me.

[H2O Man]

14. A week from today,

a number of super delegates will be making their endorsements public.

[TexasLady]

17. There ya go!

And hopefully a few more up TO that time!

[northzax]

116. isn't that what everyone said before Pennsylvania?

I could have sworn the Obama camp said that a whole bunch of SDs were coming after Penn.

[BeyondGeography]

15. An extremely dopey analysis

Holding KY and WV against him would be like penalizing her for losing Mississippi and South Carolina. And Hillary needs to win NC and IN substantially if she is to have a serious chance at winning the nomination. Why? Because she is losing and time is running out. She lost 11 primaries in a row in February and, when she has won, she has failed to blow Obama out of the water. Obama has exceeded 60% 15 times, Hillary once.

You're acting as if the first 45 contests somehow count less than the remaining 8 or 10. Wrong.

[onenote]

38. well, we do penalize HRC for losing Mississippi and SC

Never been into the "those states don't count" mentality. Not when it was HRC's supporters saying it, and I won't go there for Obama either.

And if the first 45 contests had given one candidate a decisive (meaning a majority of the total delegates) margin, then they would count 'more' than the later contests. But without a decisive majority, the later contests do, in fact, take on more importance.

That being said, I think Obama will take NC and lose IN. One key will be for his margin of victory in NC to be bigger than the margin of his loss in IN.

[BeyondGeography]

42. Point is, he does have a decisive margin in terms of delegates now

And by "penalize," I'm talking about using states that are tailor-made for one particular candidate as a way to demonstrate the other candidate's lack of electability. The OP suggests that blowouts in KY and WV would somehow be devastating for Obama. If so, why wouldn't the same hold true for the many more states where Obama has rolled up the score against Hillary? In fact, the whole conversation is unnecessary as the OP is chock full of holes.

[onenote]

47. No, as Cali points out, he doesn't

The SDs can/will decide this thing. And you'd be fooling yourself if you thought that they couldn't shift gears. Will it happen? I doubt it. Could it? Certainly. At this point, I wouldn't bet my house on a particular outcome. A lot may depend, as Cali says, on how NC and Indiana play out and how the results there are perceived by SDs. Generally, Obama has met and/or exceeded expectations (he's won the states he was expected to, surprised HRC by beating her or making it closer in a number of other states). Its unfair, but if late in the race he begins to fall short of expectations, it could cause some doubt to creep in among the SDs. Again, not saying it will happen, just that Cali is right in suggesting that the outcome is not yet in the bag.

[BeyondGeography]

48. She's saying he's in deep shit if he only wins NC by single digits

For which we need a neon sign somewhere that says "WRONG." The SD's aren't deciding jackshit, really. They're just going to go along with the pledged delegate count, and that is where Obama has built a decisive advantage. The only way they reverse the will of the voters is if Obama completely craters, and that means losing big the rest of the way everywhere (and not just KY and WV) and somehow demonstrating himself to be unelectable.

[onenote]

50. Not how I read the OP

The suggestion at the end of the OP was that Obama was in deep shit if loses IN by 6-7 and only 'ekes' out a win in NC. I view "eking" out a win as winning by 1 or 2 percent. If that happens, the press will be horrible for Obama and he could indeed face a situation where his performance the rest of way is viewed as "cratering". Again, I don't think it will play out that way, but at this point there are no guarantees.

[high density]

77. The gear shift comes when Clinton starts winning ALL remaining states with 66% of the vote

Until then we're in the same gear while Clinton heads ultimately for a loss. That's the fact of life unless the super delegates prefer to shitcan the voters and activists to install the Clintons back on top. He's not falling short on expectations. Instead what is happening is that he is getting attacked by both Democrats and Republicans at the same time. Not helping here are the people that express these lame Henny Penny outlooks on the race every hour.

[hell-bent]

61. Let's analyze those 16 60% Obama caucus wins.

Take a look at the Obama spreads(pluralities)in these big wins(60%)for Obama, considering the actual votes cast. Wy.-2,067; Hi.-19,512; Neb.-13,681; Virgin Islands-1,623; Kansas-17,710; ND.-4,677;Alaska-4,480. Wow, these are huge wins. Compare those spreads to California, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Get real,man. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

[BeyondGeography]

142. It's called "How to Build a Delegate Lead," a little pamphlet that Team Inevitable forgot to read

Hillary's much vaunted Pennsylvania win was worth less than Colorado in terms of net delegates gained. Her strategic ineptitude has put her defenders in the position of urging SD's to overturn the actual outcome of the primaries and caucuses combined. Do so and you will tear the party to pieces.

And I'm the one who needs to get real...that's funny.

[hell-bent]

143. Net pledged delegates gained from caucuses

doesn't mean jack shit when the SDs look and analyze the votes in the states where there isn't a snowball's chance of winning in the GE. They will override the caucus bullshit and look at the primaries where the average blue-collar voter will be casting their votes. Obama is an empty suit that won caucus states by some undemocratic tactics. He can't win the white vote in the major industrial states as shown in the results in Pennsylvania and Ohio. The reason the Democratic Party decided to have super delegates is well demonstrated in this primary. They can override some "flash in the pan" candidate that can't deliver in the GE.

[BeyondGeography]

147. You're wrong...plus Colorado's a state we can actually win

with Obama. Iowa, too. Plus he's competitive in Nebraska and North Dakota. Hillary loses all of those states.

The party would actually like to break away from the 17-state strategy. That's another area where Team Inevitable completely miscalculated.

[merbex]

16. Obama supporters on DU are feeling the earth shake with this message from

this author

Which probably speaks to the underlying problem about the Wright situation:"With friends like these who needs enemies".....it is always worse when a perceived "ally" turns on someone, and Wright has created doubt about Obama's sincerity.

The great "unknown" is whether Obama's statement yesterday will be enough, AND whether Rev. Wright will now "put a sock in it" or does this get "worse" and escalate?

The effect will be in the results in NC and IND.

[Avalux]

23. I'm not feeling the earth shake.

The OPer is expressing her opinion but it is hardly the same as mine. I am confident Obama's actions yesterday will put the brakes on the Wright drama so he can effectively move on to the remaining contests and the GE. The SDs are still moving to him so I'm not going to get worked up about it.

[merbex]

39. The OP is probably one of the top 5 Obama supporters as far as prolific

writers willing to use up the 3 daily posts allowed to promote or defend Obama

For her to write this post speaks volumes and IMHO it is because of the relationship that Wright had to Obama..it was portrayed as close... and Wright's wink wink answer concerning Obama as a "politician" created doubts about Obama's sincerity.

The proof will be in NC results and the OP admits that....it is scary to other Obama supporters but so is the seeing those tracking polls out of NC fall so precipitously

[cali]

68. Oh please.

First of all, I'm simply one of dozens of supporters of either candidate who frequently uses their allotted posts to promote or defend their candidate. Secondly, I'm not saying anything different than I've said all along. Thirdly, my writing this post has zip all to do with the relationship between Obama and Wright being close, not so close or whatever. And I wrote a post about that yesterday, focusing on the mysteries of personal relationships. Please ask me what I meant instead of jumping to silly conclusions.

Furthermore, I couldn't have been clearer. Obama would have to barely eke out a win and lose in Indiana by more than 6 or 7 points for SDs to suddenly flood to Clinton- imo.

And sorry, I'm not at all daunted by the NC polling at this point.

[merbex]

123. You are being too modest, plus, the fact remains that the point that I made

does seem to have ocurred: the other Obama posters do not react well to negative reality concerning Obama

The rev. Wright impact is still relativeley "unknown" and pretty much all of it thus far has been "negative"

[Samantha]

154. Did you hear Claire McCasgill (sorry about that spelling) today?

I hope I soon learn to properly spell her name; I so seldom see it in writing but I truly admire her. Most of the undeclared superdelegates are not undecided. The candidates know which way they will break. She could not reveal the preferences of the undecideds but made a remark to tip the answer: In the words of James Brown, "I feel good."

I hope you too will "feel good" when reading this line. I do not think Hillary can realistically expect to have the undeclared superdelegates tip this for her, regardless of the outcome of North Carolina or Indiana. I think Barack will win the projected share of pledged delegates previously predicted in the now-infamous leaked handout, and the balance of the 300 undeclared superdelegates will tip him over the edge. I do think it's mathematically impossible for her to win.

Okay, if you don't "feel good" do you feel better?

Sam

[woolldog]

166. I tend to agree with you.

The OP's analysis is severely flawed.

[tekisui]

28. At this point, Wright is on his own, and any controversy will be his.

The media will quit paying him 24 hour attention, and turn their focus back to Obama. If Wright disses Obama, it helps Obama. If Wright stirs up more controversy, it helps Wright's book sells, but does little to Obama.

Wright coverage has reached saturation, and will not be the ratings cash cow from here on out.

[merbex]

41. The potential for more devastating stuff to come out of Wright's mouth

is hanging over the Obama campaign's head and wishing it wasn't so isn't going to make it go away

[tekisui]

46. More devastating stuff from Wright's mouth will be Wright's

and Wright's alone.

[merbex]

59. It speaks to judgement: it is a real stretch to think that NONE of Wright's

behavior, or beliefs weren't apparent in the past 20 years that both admit that there was a relationship

This is just something that the people/voters of those states that haven't voted yet get to make a decision about.

All the OP did was acknowledge that a serious, potential problem exists.

Denying it or minimizing it won't change the fact that damage has been done. The extent of the damage is still unknown.

[eridani]

87. What about Clinton's nazi-loving spiritual advisor? n/t

[MNDemNY]

75. Obama better hope that Wright has the same

deference to "private conversations" as he does. I think he does not, I think we will soon hear comments from Wright suggesting that Obama is not being truthful about what he knew, or did not know about his(wrights) views and words.

[aquart]

33. Excuse me? Obama is GREAT at faking sincerity.

Damn near a genius.

[Bread and Circus]

19. Just be prepared for the storm, don't say you weren't warned.

[cali]

25. oh, shove the faux cassandra nonsense

I've always recognized that anything can happen at anytime in a political campaign. That dosen't mean it will.

[Bread and Circus]

36. If you don't think the same windfall of bullshit will befall Clinton once the machine

gets Obama out of the way, you've got another thing coming.

This Wright thing is one of the biggest "blown out of all proportion" things I've ever seen in politics. Just because "all is seemingly forgiven" between Hillary and the RW that is now patently fluffing her, doesn't mean it will last.

If you want to take the "I just want to win" route, I don't blame you. But it is pollyanna to think somehow Clinton is going to survive the inevitable onslaught.

Bottom line is this Obama is likeable, Clinton is not. It's much easier to pillory someone who is not likeable. The only reason they haven't done it yet to the extent they will is that there is no need to.

Just be prepared for the storm and don't say you weren't warned.

[SaveAmerica]

21. Let it sink?

Just kidding! It'll be alright, he's already won, she's actually making herself look worse and worse every day with her comments that sound like a teen trying to get votes for class president. Have you seen this:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5720404

Lots of phone calls today!!

[jefferson_dem]

22. Respectfully, I disagree.

Everything does not hinge on NC and IN, unless you are Hillary. These states are "must wins" for her, especially IN. If Obama loses NC, that will be a severe electoral blow, but not at all fatal.

Hillary and her supporters can claim momentum all day but she cannot claim the nomination without a win among pledged delegates. In my view, if the Supers, for whatever reason, hand it to her even though she falls short on PDs, that would be much worse for our Party and our nation than even a John McCain presidency. She will not get my vote.

[futureliveshere]

24. I would have agreed if he had dodged the issue. But he has addressed it.

Lets see what the results say. I think HE is light years ahead of the Clintons and will sew the nomination by the end of May.

I don't think this will affect him by too much, and I totally do not agree that this will derail him in the GE. The MAIN reason it is being flushed out right now is to avoid the GE debacle. Wait and watch, most of the SDs are "undeclared" not "undecided" and more and more of the "undeclared" especially the powerSDs are making comments that are increasingly sounding pro-Obama.

I think Obama has won the nomination in "private" circles and hence is allowing the rev. Wright issue to be blown up so much.

[mmonk]

27. He could. But I doubt it. In order for Clinton to make a good case,

she has to practically run the table. Two blow out states won't do that.

[Life Long Dem]

29. How can you say that? Clinton supporters are going to love you.

Clinton needs 68% in the remaining states. And if she doesn't get that in NC and IN, then it goes up to 80% for the remaining states. 80% is tough, and almost 70% (68%) is also tough.

[cali]

44. First of all, I don't post here to be loved by anyone.

Secondly, math isn't the only factor. SDs look at the math but they certainly look at other things as well.

[onehandle]

30. The rational, get it. nt

[phrigndumass]

31. (pssst ... Cali ... look over here)

(sshhhh: I changed all the polls to Clinton-60, Obama-40, to see what the projections would be.)



( whisper smilie ... :D )

[cali]

37. thanks, phrig

that's a good way of looking at it.

[Kukesa]

60. sshhhh, I looked, too.

You never fail to amaze me with your math.

Thanks, phrig, I needed that this morning.

[phrigndumass]

63. (pssst ... yw)

( whisper flerbertz :P )

[FrenchieCat]

40. I'm not pretending anything.....

but thanks for the downer post.

Now, if only the Media could get enough Obama supporters to believe that his pastor defines this election and his candidacy, and therefore the future of this country....then we'll all know why propaganda works. We can then just throw our hands in the air, buy the bullshit....and by the way, why bother to vote?

[livingmadness]

52. Right there with you - not pretending either

Maybe its because I've been living outside of the US for a few years now, I just don't see why supporters are as spooked as they are. I'm not saying no damage, just that the hyper-anxiety is disproportionate. I certainly think that when observing the race as closely as many of us here are, its easy to experience a more roller-coaster ride with every cloud that comes along. But I was talking to my aunt in NYC on the phone last night, and she'd heard something in passing but just thought it was a continuation of the earlier Wright-furore. When I laid it out, wasn't phased for a minute. And she's 76!!!

Presidential politics is a tough game, and those who step up to the plate are there to win - often by any means necessary. No one is going to hand success on a plate to Obama, or us - his supporters. Will Wright doom Obama? Will the next poor poll doom Obama? Sheesh, I will give this to Hillary's supporters - here and elsewhere they're a hardy bunch and they don't give up. I'm beginning to gain new respect for that. They fight, fight, fight for their candidate, and are putting some of us to shame. Are we to be so easily defeated? If so Hillary and her supporters here fully deserve a win - for sheer tenacity.

Well I won't go down 'gently' into that good night. Obama himself said that the battles ahead would be long and that there would be a chorus of cynics who would only grow louder and more dissonant. If this fine African American man can dare to hope and dare to challenge, then so can we GOD DAMN IT! Yes, they're going to keep throwing shit at him. And he, imperfect human being that he is, is going to make mistakes. They'd be throwing shit at Hillary too if they felt threatened. The very fact that at this stage they don't should tell you something. They'll ridicule, lie, cheat - bash him with anything they can get their hands on. And we have to GET TOUGH, cream puff. If Obama can take the hits, grit his teeth and refrain from screaming when the corporate owned media, or the right wing pigs hound him about their chosen 'gotcha' issue, then so can you. Just remember - it is the VOTERS who will decide, less than a week from today. Only then, if he doesn't manage to win, and I'm certain he will, can you wail with abandon. Until then fight with everything you've got or get the hell out of the way.

There, I've had my rant, and I ain't coming back in this thread, cos there's an important battle to fight, and I don't need the distraction.

Peace.

[Kaylee]

69. Agreed.....

I don't know if I can take much more of this hand-wringing.

[DeeDeeNY]

45. If the SDs overturn the people's choice

based on votes in two or three upcoming states, that will be the beginning of the end of the Democratic Party.
The Wright thing has been overblown by the press and SDs can't be so stupid as to not see this. The press could just as easily be going nonstop on Bill-Kazakhstan coverage, or Bill-girlfriends coverage, which they wouldn't hesitate to do if Hillary was to get the nomination.

[seaglass]

79. Hmm, well haven't Kennedy, Kerry and Patrick all endorsed

Obama - yet Clinton won MA? Does it only work one way that SDs are allowed freedom of choice?

[DeeDeeNY]

146. Overall, Obama has more elected delegates

And I was actually referring to the SDs looking at the national numbers of elected delegates, which Obama is overwhelmingly leading in.

[Jersey Devil]

51. The real question, Cali, is whether DU & the media is the real world

I realize that cable news has been beating this Wright business to death, but I have a hard time believing that the Wright issue is going to make up the minds of undecided voters in Indiana or North Carolina and trump issues like the economy, gas prices, war, health care, etc.

While Wright may be the biggest issue since Tuzla to hit DU, as many have often pointed out, DU is not the real world. I seriously doubt that in the real world of Ind and NC that Rev Wright is the one thing on the tip of everyone's tongues when thinking about their choice for the Democratic nominee.

[TragedyandHope]

53. It certainly doesn't hinge on next week

Although a strong showing would be nice. The hyperactive environment of cable news and DU doesn't reflect the average voter or what is going on in the minds of SDs. Most of them have been going Obama's way and almost all of them who comment on the subject have said that most of questions we're battling over tooth-and-nail here have no bearing on their decisions.

These are politicians we're talking about, if there was real trouble with Obama's chances, the SDs wouldn't be endorsing him in droves and willingly dooming themselves to be on the losing side. They would never purposely set themselves up to catch the Clinton's wrath at this late date, if that's the way they thought things were going to go. From that alone, you can infer some of what's going on behind the scenes.

[AllexxisF1]

58. Exactly.

By next week this whole Rev. Wright thing will be over...finally and when the elections are done with Hillary not winning either, it will be over for her too. Obama just needs to stay on message and he will be fine.

[book_worm]

55. so why didn't Clinton drop out when she lost 12 in a row?

I don't give a darn anymore. If Obama gets the delegates then he goes to Denver and we fight it out there. You don't think the GOP doesn't have a thick file they will throw at Hillary? They spent four years wanting to go up against her and her high negatives. She is a despicable liar and the American people dislike her and McCain will win if she's the nominee.

[Coexist]

57. I was just going to say this

Wright is old news now. Heck - I turned on Joe S. for the first time in a long time today and he said, "its smooth sailing for Obama now." and said he wants to play basketball with Obama now.

He was never expected to win Indiana. If he comes close - its very positive for him.

[TwilightGardener]

62. Well, if the SD's want to dismiss the entire race except for the last 10 contests, then

that's their right to do so. However, if they based their decision wholly on late "momentum" and perceived electability (meaning: Obama is black), they're stupid and short-sighted. If Obama could finally get the Democratic party officially behind him as the nominee, instead of being torn apart by rivals, he'd crush McCain. The Dem party finally has a chance to cut some of its ties with the parasitic Clintons--let's see if the SD's act like abused wives returning to their abusers, or whether they actually care about the future of their party this time around.

[Vinca]

64. This country has so many stupid people, either of our candidates

could lose against McCain, but I'm betting neither will. McCain handed us the election yesterday when he issued his health insurance plan. Once the masses find out they'll be shelling out big bucks for their own insurance, they'll run toward the Democrats. McCain's $5,000 tax credit for insurance is ludicrous and proves just how out of touch he is with average-income people. This, of course, is not covered in the MSM. McCain is getting a pass.

[Skwmom]

67. Your post sounds just like Clinton logic.

Obama, being the smart, smart man that he is, is more than willing to give up a few points in NC and IN in order to keep the party united. Anyone with half a brain knows that Clinton's numbers would plummet if she was really attacked by Obama or 527s. She already polls in the 30s with independents and she hasn't even been attacked. There is so much footage of Clinton that just makes one wince. They accuse McCain of being angry, the Republicans reply with footage of Clinton which makes her appear unstable. The Snipergate footage of Clinton, then both Clintons telling lies trying to defend the lie, then the one clip of Clinton talking about it and saying "people don't think I'm human" and giving this really weird grin was a GIFT to the Republicans. For being such experienced politicians the magnitude of their bloopers on the campaign trail is really stunning. I guess their just not ready for prime time.

The Republicans knew to win against Clinton all they would have to do was increase her negatives a couple of points and Clinton has already done the work for them.


WV and KY are pro Clinton just like all those states Obama trounced Clinton in. What order they are in the voting process doesn't amount to a hill of beans.

Oh and the women are voting for Clinton, those white males are voting for Bubba. Do you really think that Clinton would be in the race if her and Bubba weren't out selling her candidacy as a third term for Bill Clinton? Wow, Clinton is running for his third term and he gets beat by a novice.

On edit: Yeah Cali, it would be really great if some people stopped "pretending." All of that pretending must really get tiresome.

[TwilightGardener]

83. You raise a good point--the GOP will splice together all of the stuff--

the gaffes, the lies, the odd statements, the facial expressions, the ideas floated and then abandoned ("Umbrella" of deterrence in the Middle East? Does anyone remember the "baby bond" idea"?). And they will end up with enough material to make Hillary look like an ass for the GE and beyond. They will do what they do best--mock her and wreck whatever credibility she had left. Obama didn't do that, he won't go there, so no one saw what the impact of it will be...yet. I think the SD's realize that all of the focus has been on tearing down Obama as the frontrunner, and most of Hillary's stupid moments are on the back burner--but they're in the vault.

[Skwmom]

97. The GOP can sink Clinton by using footage of the two Clintons.

Not what you would expect from two political "pros."

[cali]

85. What bullshit. You're not the first *genius* in this thread

to accuse me of not really being an Obama supporter. How fucking brain dead do you have to be to suggest that? Yes, Clinton would probably fall in the polls if she were really attacked, but that isn't happening. duh.

And of course, she's dependent on Bill's past presidency for her campaign and of course she wouldn't be where she is if not for him. But that's immaterial to the points I made in the OP.

Oh yeah, and shove your stupid shit about how I'm not really an Obama supporter where the sun don't shine. Thanks.

[jasmine621]

70. Who should argue with sound reason? Not me. nt

[TheDoorbellRang]

71. Three things to boost your morale

1) Baggage. Obama has a carry on bag with Jeremiah Wright. Clinton has a caravan that has barely started out.

2) He has $40M+ in his war chest that he's more than willing to share with the DNC in a joint fundraising effort, with much more to tap. Hillary has $15M- in debt. Who is she going to help? She needs help herself.

3) He needs less than 100 more super delegates to endorse him out of 296 remaining. Do you think the super D's are going to ignore facts one and two? No.

Obama's got it.

[K Gardner]

73. You're definitely spending too much time here. Take a break :-)

[Barack_America]

74. Nope. Our elections are now tainted. There are simply too many Republicans meddling...

Particularly in those predominantly red states you mentioned. Why should we nominate the candidate personally selected by Republicans for their candidate to defeat in the fall?

No thank you.

[yellowcanine]

80. My sense is that the large AA voter pool + Research Triangle voters will carry the day for Obama by

a fairly healthy margin. Both of those groups of voters have been Obama's strongest supporters and they are highly motivated to vote. I don't see Clinton's demographic (older working class white folk) being numerous and/or motivated enough to overcome Obama's demographic advantage in NC. Am I wrong?

[MattNC]

102. No

He well do with: Blacks; Triangle voters; most college towns; independents

He will get creamed in Appalachia.

[yellowcanine]

106. Didn't I just say that?

Or are you maintaining the Appalachia Clinton advantage is going to outweigh Obamas demographic advantages? I don't think so. I would think Blacks alone would more than compensate for the Appalachia vote.

[MattNC]

111. i was agreeing with you n/t

[liberaldem4ever]

81. I think it's going to be OK for Obama

I remember in 1992 when Gennifer Flowers spoke out about her long time affair with Bill Clinton, all the media said his campaign couldn't recover from it and would lose the election because of it. And we all know that didn't happen. Having a pastor from your church of like 8,000 members who says controversial things is a lot less scandalous than having a long term affair on your wife. I think voters are going to be able to see Rev. Wright as a tiny blip on the radar and pay more attention to the great man Obama really is and how much he can help our country.

[TBF]

86. I basically agree with you Cali -

I'd hate to see Clinton get the nomination but at least she has plans to shore up health care and exit Iraq. I hate the woman but I would vote for her over McCain. There I said it. I'm still off dreaming about a Gore/Obama dream team some days, but I know that won't really happen. It will be either Obama or Clinton, and then we've got to fight like mad to get one of them in the white house. The only way to handle the closet racist dems is to pair Obama with a VP who is a white, male and moderate. I've come to the same conclusion with Hillary. She only has a chance with a male VP. But one way or the other we've got to get one of them in the white house. The Supreme Court is already bordering on facist, one more tips it for the next 35 years at least.

But don't let the republicans get to you Cali - this thing isn't over yet. They're attacking Obama big time because they know Hillary is the easier win for them. If Obama holds on and gains traction through the fall he is a shoe-in. This is the reason I hate Clinton - her attempts to throw him under the bus have been so divisive that they might cost us the white house.

[JohnnyLib2]

88. K & R

[flpoljunkie]

89. I see no benefit from this post, other than perhaps you own ego.

[woolldog]

171. I don't care for the sanctimonious tone of the OP either.

:thumbsdown:

[CaptJasHook]

90. It is going to take me months to swallow Hillary

Hopefully, I will be able to. At this point, I cannot accept that Hillary is acting independently from the Republicans. Worse than the "Race" card, she is playing the radical card and the elitist card at the same time.

She has betrayed the hard working core of the party, she is another divider. At this point, I cannot back her. I would rather cut off my nose to spite my face. I would rather have the Republican party take the blame for the shit storm that is coming, then elect real Progressive in '12.

[zulchzulu]

91. Obama IS the nominee and the NEXT President

He will win North Carolina handily and Indiana will be close. He doesn't need to win Indiana since the dlegate count will be pretty much split. His lead in delegates is insurmountable.

Superdelegates, being the party hacks they are in general, will not look at his lead in delegates, the popular vote, the most states won and the amount of new Democrats who support, and vote against him. It would be political suicide for most of them.

The Wright issue has now been declawed and left to rot in the basement. Anyone who brings up Wright as an issue now will be seen as a desperate charlatan. If you actually look at how Obama shaved off a 12% poll lead in Pennsylvania (a state that was deemed a gimme for Hillary Clinton), you see that the Wright "issue" is more a fabrication of the mainstream media that feeds into cheap shot politics for Clinton and McCain.

Yes, we need to win in November. The worst solution would be to hand the greatest mobilization factor for the Republicans by offering two Clintons at the Alter of Dirty Politics. Not only would their stolen coronation destroy the Democratic Party, it would inflame the mainstream media and the Republicans like the zombies in "I Am Legend".

Barack Obama will be our next President. Patience, my friend....

[Stephanie]

92. I was confused by some of your posts before, but now I get who you are

Remove that Obama avatar, you're deliberately misleading people about yourself.

[onenote]

94. nonsense

The OP has been a strong supporter (and defender) of Obama. But being a strong defender of Obama doesn't require you to put on rose colored glasses and pretend that everything is just hunky dory and that there is no risk out there. As I've said before, I don't think the worst case scenario will play out, and I wouldn't be surprised in the next week for the media to find a new issue to pick up on, something that puts HRC on the defensive, but I also can't count out the worst case scenario completely either.

[Stephanie]

101. The OP has played both sides, in my experience

And now I know why. YMMV.

[CK_John]

105. And never seems to sleep. n/t

[Egnever]

122. WTF?

Cali is definately an obama supporter. She might be feeling a little nervous at the moment but she has more than earned that avatar.

[Stephanie]

130. My experience has been different than yours.

But it's all making sense to me today.

[SeaLyons]

93. K&R

Kick for rational thinking...

[kid a]

95. First obama supporter on ignore for your bipolarism - not a time for that or this unreal hyperbole

I swear, there are two different persons in your house logging in under the same name.

I'm gonna put you in time out for a few days.

[rateyes]

96. If Hillary gets the nomination from the supers over the

majority of the pledged delegates and popular vote, this is one Democrat who won't support it. You're right...winning in November counts, and if this is how she gets the nomination, she won't win in November.

[The Stranger]

98. It's over. Obama won it. If they take it from him based on racism, then all bets are off.

Can't support the taking away of a nomination based on pure, unadulterated, old fashioned racism.

[lwcon]

100. Of course you're not troubled about...

... Obama taking the lead because of his campaign's race-baiting smear of the Clintons:

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/McCamy%20Taylor/203
http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=aa0cd21b-0ff2-4329-88a1-69c6c268b304

That's how it works with Obama Rules / Clinton Rules.

___

The Vast Left-Wing Conspiracy, now at my new home: Correntewire.com

[haymakeragain]

136. Why did Bill use Jesse as an example re: winning SC?

Because he is black. That is racist. Do I think bill is a racist? No. Was that racist to make the point that a "black" man had already won in South Carolina so it shouldn't matter that Obama won South Carolina? Without doubt.

[lwcon]

181. Not having doubt is key to being an Obama supporter

1. The Obama campaign fabricated a race-baiting smear against the Clintons in the run-up to the SC primary, based on a wild twisting of Bill's "fairy tale" comment about Obama's Iraq position and his acknowledgment of the collaboration between MLK and LBJ
2. About 90% of SC black voters voted for Obama
3. Bill Clinton noted that the state has turned out strong for black candidates in past Dem primaries
4. He should have been more gracious about him and his wife being successfully tagged as racists through a fellow-Democrat's slanderous campaign

Perhaps one day you'll gain some perspective on who has run the racist, destroy-your-opponents campaign. Or perhaps not.

___

The Vast Left-Wing Conspiracy, now at my new home: Correntewire.com

[lwcon]

182. What a sad mockery of the real problems people suffer because of racism

And a pathetic, selfish way to denigrate the only Democratic presidency much of Obama's base has ever known.

___

The Vast Left-Wing Conspiracy, now at my new home: Correntewire.com

[kenny blankenship]

110. If they take it from him based on racism, then the party's over

so to speak.

They aren't that dumb or crazy. They want to protect their phony baloney jobs.

[lwcon]

99. "I deplore the premature grave dancing that many hillary supporters here are engaging in."

Perhaps you can forgive a little schadenfreude after so many Obama supporters prematurely danced on Hillary's grave, a few examples of which are documented in our "'Why Won't the Stupid Bitch Quit' Watch":

http://www.correntewire.com/why_wont_that_stupid_bitch_quit

___

The Vast Left-Wing Conspiracy, now at my new home: Correntewire.com

[joeybee12]

103. I don't think so... I think the SD's have made up their minds...and it's too bad

But if North Carolina is very close, maybe some of them will start getting the vapors and think again.

[wowimthere]

108. If you keep making posts like this... it will be a factor. Stop using their talking points, please!

They want you to have doubts. If you say negative things long enough they become self fulfilling prophecies. Please... for the good of this country, and our message please don't put up distracting Right-wing talking points. The "what if" factor and the negative posturing will get you more of the same. Stay positive and on Obama's message and "WE" will prevail.

[thewiseguy]

112. Flame bait

Are you that desperately seeking attention? One day you go around calling Hillary supporters Hillbots and the other you come here and spew this shit for us and ask us to flame you.

You need some time off DU.

[closeupready]

113. Would it be a good idea if he got nasty on her?

and had his surrogates bringing up Monica Lewinsky, and Whitewater, etc.?

[Texas Hill Country]

114. bravo, thank you for the reasoned post!

[Hamlette]

115. three or four times during this last year I've said: "he's toast" but each time he saved it

I know its wrong of me, because I don't want my heart broken again, but I'm starting to trust him.

but then, that's what hearts are for.

[RichardRay]

118. I feel like it's on the cusp...

I would be unsurprised to see Senator Obama's candidacy start to unravel over this, in which case the SD's would have to do what they have to do. I would be equally unsurprised to see public sentiment swing even more strongly behind Obama. The next couple of primaries will tell that tale, as Cali says.

I suspect the most likely scenario is that there will be some polling burps and things will go on as they have been, which means a decision in Senator Obama's favor in late May or early June.

[BlueIdaho]

119. There are some similarities between

Barack, Bill Clinton and JFK. Each of them had to face a real moment of truth and overcome some pretty long odds to get the nomination. It could be the SDs are seeing in Barack's moment of crisis the kind of clarity and statesmanship they have been looking for. After all - there isn't much left for McSame to use against him. At the end of the day - Obama's delegate lead can't be overcome by Clinton and I doubt, regardless of what the hysterical Clinton supporters say, the SDs will ignore the delegate lead, war chest, and new Democrats Barack has in his back pocket.

Enjoy your day.

[Robbins]

127. Obama

He may suffer slightly but once Gallup releases the April 30tracking poll we will start to see If
he has started to recover from the 24 hour Wright MSM attack.

Just because SurveyUSA has Obama only 4 points ahead of hillary doesn't mean It will be that close.
There have been states Obama has won by more than they had him winning.Most other polls still have him 10-12 points.I say he will take It by 10.Expect the media to downplay It.Those who called Hillary's 9 point win In PA as a big deal will downplay this win.I think Hillary will take
Indiana but It will be by 4,or 5 points.Hillary will have big wins In Kentuckey and WV.Most Obama
supporters know this.Obama may take Guam.Oregon,South Dakota,and Montana will go to Obama.
Remember Washington State,North Dakota,and Colorado went to Obama,and even with support from 30 and older Hispanics she just barely won New Mexico.She will win Puerto Rico.None of this will change the
fact Obama Is ahead.

[Jed Dilligan]

125. I agree, it's not sewn up, and the circus they started has increased

their chances. SC is 28% black, NC 21%--that could be the difference between a landslide and a photo finish.

I'm done with national politics for a while if they somehow get their way.

[SoCalDem]

126. Maybe not.. Most of the SDs are probably men and men understand sports

example:

team A scores 40 points in the first 3 quarters, against a scoreless opponent..

Team B rallies in the last 5 minutes of the 4th quarter and scores 2 touchdowns & a field goal.. The crowd is going wild, everyone's excited, and team A is scoreless in the 4th quarter..

Does the win go to team B for their 17 point rally in the closing minutes of the game?? or does the win go to Team A who's still 23 points ahead??

[Hoof Hearted]

128. the Supreme Court is more important than my candidate preference

Very well said. I'm always amazed and touched by the braveness of some people to just lay it all out there and discuss their candidates flaws and even more in awe of those who are willing to write an OP about it. My hat is truly off to you.

Speaking to the grave dancing - You're here all the time, so I'm sure you're aware that about 70+% of GDP has been spitting, pissing, cursing, ridiculing and grave dancing on Hillary since before super Tuesday. In retrospect, those now look like really good times.

When this whole thing started off, I honestly couldn't decide between the two and supported both. I probably favored Clinton slightly because I know how hard she's worked to fight for voter rights, minorities, families, healthcare and children, but I was totally open to Obama. What scared me was that we didn't know him and he hadn't been through any really tough, big campaigns.

I'm not going to rehash everything that put me in the Clinton camp but the deal-breakers were McClurkin and avoidance of the gay press followed by Michelle exhorting the black community to "wake up" and vote for Barack because he was black. I felt that would set a chain of events in motion that would eventually backfire. I think it did. I know others see those things differently, arguing with me about it is a waste of time.

In this election cycle, the press will NEVER let that Wright story go away and 527's have already started using it to hurt local Democrats. Even if he squeaks out of this(frankly I don't see how that's possible), how many local Democrats, house and senate seats do we want to lose?

I want to win in November. I have two daughters who are floating around out there without any healthcare. We've seen first hand here on DU what happens to people who don't have insurance when they get sick. That's why I'm a stark raving bitch for Hillary. November, November, November.

[cali]

137. first of all, thanks and secondly I don't agree about

Obama being unelectable. if he gets the nomination he has an excellent chance of winning. It's as absurd to say that he's unelectable in November as it is to say that Wright hasn't been a factor. I think you're grossly mischaracterizing what Michelle said, and though I disliked the McClurkin thing, I much more deplore Hillary Clinton's disgusting vote on the IWR and her imprudent saber rattling. I find both unconscionable. She is complicit in the deaths of hundreds of thousands.

We are notvgoing to lose Senate or House seats in the fall, and anyone familiar with the Senate races knows that we will pick up at least 3. The only vulnerable dem Senate is Landrieu and she's polling double digits ahead of Kennedy- a very weak opponent. And no, there isn't a single other dem Senate Seat that we're in any danger of losing.

I still think Obama is the likely nominee. All I did in my OP was recognize that he could lose it. You seem to have read into it that which isn't there.

[backscatter712]

134. I don't think this is a fatal blow.

Yes, it's hurt Obama in the polls.

My guess is that he'll start recovering in the next few days, once the media finishes pastorbating, gets bored and starts talking about dead white women and celebrity meltdowns again.

And the nice thing about his statement yesterday is that he put a stake through the heart of the Wright controversy. Wright can say what he wants, but it's now clear that Obama's not following Wright, but taking a better path.

And remember, we still have The Math.

It's clear by the accelerating superdelegate endorsements that they know he's got The Math, and Hillary has no way to combat it.

It'll be over by May 20th. My guess is that Obama wins N. Carolina, loses Indiana by a hair, thus Hillary stays in for another couple weeks, but when Oregon and Kentucky happen on May 20th, Obama will get his 1,627th pledged delegate, giving him the mathematical majority in pledged delegates, and the Pelosi gang of superdelegates will endorse and give him the nomination.

[haymakeragain]

135. No, everything does not hinge on NC and IN, it's the sum total that counts,

and that includes those primaries after Tuesday. Obama will be well ahead when all is said and done.

[Freedom Train]

138. This is my line of thinking as well

(Except that I was never for Obama to begin with). I only want to win the GE, and the Supreme Court is a big part of why we MUST. If Hillary fares better nationwide, she should be picked. This is exactly why the Supers were created - to prevent a candidate who has started tanking towards the end of the primary season from going into the General and continue the fall. I get the sense most Obama supporters put their candidate before the good of the party, and that can't stand. Too much is at stake now.

[jonestonesusa]

163. Keep in mind that in surveys, more HC supporters say they

will not vote for Obama than vice versa. So why not direct some of your criticism of disloyal Dems at Hillary supporters?

[Awsi Dooger]

139. Obama will win North Carolina by healthy margin

At this point in the primary season the demographics have settled, and you merely apply the breakdown to the given state.

It's hardly equivalent to cut a deficit from let's say 12 points down to 6, and turning that 6+ point fundamental deficit into an upset victory. That's Hillary's problem in North Carolina. There's a natural ceiling for her, and the Wright issue while damaging to Obama toward November isn't enough to inspire the party base to abandon him in droves.

Plus, there has been early voting in North Carolina for at least a week, pre-dating Wright's intrusions over the weekend and on Monday. My sister lives there and voted for Hillary more than a week ago. It's somewhat like California, where I got an Intrade steal on Hillary at 50/50, defying the late polls while understanding the demographics of the electorate, and that early voting had likely avalanched toward Hillary.

Obama received the massive early breaks he needed. It will be plenty:

* Huge states Florida and Michigan out of the equation

* Mark Penn adopting idiotic big state-only strategy, and not adapting once Florida and Michigan were gone

* Perception that Bill Clinton played race card in South Carolina

* Writers strike that allowed Obama media bias to linger, far longer than it otherwise would have

* Wright issue breaking in March and not January or earlier, when it could have been fatal. I'm constantly amused at the daily assertions of Hillary camp conspiracy. Meanwhile, if that was their mindset, all they had to do was push Wright during '07.

[stevietheman]

140. If Hillary somehow ends up the pledged delegate winner, you will have a point.

But the mathematical likelihood of this occurring is already remote, and becoming only more remote with each passing primary and SD declaration.

[Eutanasio]

144. It's impossible for him to lose the nomination, practically

Unless Clinton wins NC by 30% or so, and that might not even be enough.

[David__77]

145. If he's ahead by 1 pledged delegate, he must be the nominee.

I do not agree with any other contention. I would vigorously campaign for superdelegates to ratify the verdict of the elected delegates.

[Neshanic]

149. Why stop now? He's not going to be President. He will be the nom though, YEA!

[Blondiegrrl]

150. Certainly we should not allow ourselves to get complacent. But how is all this pessimism going

to help his campaign?

[RBInMaine]

152. MUCH of this has to do with the BIAS of the corporate media. THEY are getting THEIR way.

The whole Wright matter is very much a creation of the corporate right wing media, more of a farce than Wright ever though of being, which is hammering and hammering away at this with their sickening overplay and reems of slanted commentary, all designed to hurt Obama, and honeymoon with Hillary long enough to help her win the nomination so they can then start sticking the knife in her back on behalf of their real candidate, John McCain. Never mind the gas tax gimmicks. Never mind that Hillary's backers are making illegal robo call in NC. Never mind that McCain says we should be in Iraq for 100 years. Never mind Hillary's endless sacks of "baggage" at this juncture: her long and deep ties to lobbyists, PACS, Norman Hsu, corrupt fat cat donors, her incessant truth stretches and morphs from one person to the next. Politics is perspective, and, sadly, we have a fake, corporate media that establishes this perspective. Never mind McCain's Hagee connection. No, let's just beat up on Obama over his name, flag pins, very distant acquaintences, and his now FORMER pastor. Can you imagine it? Trying to cut the flesh out of a guy over something his minister said. Nonsense. Utter nonsense. How can anyone even think about listening to these corporate media whores.

[Cha]

180. Good question..

"How can anyone even think about listening to these corporate media whores."

[yourout]

153. If Obama is not on the ticket the young vote and the black vote will be history for at least a..

decade.

It would be a bloodbath for the Dems.

[iamthebandfanman]

157. oh, he already won

and if the party reverses it

there will be hell to pay, and i dont mean in the form of riots like oxyrush is calling for.

[totodeinhere]

158. Bullshit. It's over. He only needs 1 in 3 of the remaining supers.

And that's assuming that Hillary can get 65% of the remaining primary votes, which is very unlikely given North Carolina, Oregon, and Montana.

[kwenu]

159. If Obama wins commandingly in NC or does better than losing by 6-7 points in IN,

will you and Hillary supporters agree with no further discussion that she needs to leave the race IMMEDIATELY. If not, then you all really need to shut up. Hillary can not be given "50 do-overs" until she can finally come up with a plausible, although weak, argument to stay on and destroy the likely nominee.

At some point, the goal posts have to be cemented because it is painfully clear that Obama would not be extended these multiple niceties if the shoe were on the other foot. The Clintons are not so royal that we should be falling all over ourselves to ensure their claim to dynasty, even if there is a very small satisfaction in seeing the Clintons sitting in the WH again. The country and world is more important than getting even with repubs.

[Political Heretic]

161. No flames here, but I strongly believe that the pledged delegate winner should be the nominee.. then

For 2012 we need to rewrite the party rules on primary nomination processes.

1. All state primaries take place between February 1st and May 31st.

2. All state votes are primary votes, no caucuses (look, I love the idea of caucuses in general for the community, the engagement and all that. But if they make it harder for people to participate, screw it.)

3. Elimination of all delegates. Popular vote decides the nominee. Is this the people's party or isn't it?

4. National convention changed -- instead of pledged delegates at the convention, each state can elect a certain number of people to represent their state and caucus with the nominee. Representatives should reflect the proportional vote of the state. So in a state where the majority didn't vote for the nominee, a majority of representatives should be backers of the defeated opponent. The idea is that these state representatives would then go to the convention in order to caucus with the candidate campaign - to present the issues of the people in their state to the candidate and campaign, and have some participation in the process of developing the party platform for the election year. The theatrics on the floor during the convention would be each state discussing their issues and priorities for the election.

[ProSense]

164. The pretending is that Hillary

can still win legitimately.

[AZBlue]

165. Come and meet the next President of the United States.

[barack the house]

168. Mostly because yo lostthe faith , why in this instance you don't beeive he can bounce bak when he ah

before. Turn off MSMS tune in novamradio.com

[barack the house]

169. Why the logo if that is your true feelings I have doubts here.

[KoKo]

170. Good Gawd Ahmighty! You turn on a dime! After carrying on about Obama and how you support him...

you now have him not making it so we should all be prepared to support Hillary.

What the heck is going on with you. Hillary's Campaign just got news that has turned this "Undecided DU voter" to go for Obama in NC...and now you are posting to tell us to "throw in the towel?"

AMAZING!

[msallied]

172. I dunno...

Maybe I haven't read enough of the OP's posts, but she has always consistently said that she would vote for the Democrat no matter who it is. In fact, she verbally assaulted me when I disagreed with her on that topic.

[New Dawn]

173. No thanks.

If the Clintons steal the nomination, I will never vote for them.

[Veruca Salt]

174. Great post, keeps the eyes on the ball

I was very apolitical until Obama, my brothers were too, and it's posts like these that remind me that I can't just sit back like I used to. I'll call my brothers and we'll do another round of phonebanking. I must say, the nomination (and hopefully the GE next!) has also been a great bonding opportunity for my brothers and me.

[JCMach1]

175. First time in months, but I agree with you... and I really think it's time for both to suck it up

for a unity ticket with some factor (decided by both campaigns) determining who is at the top of the ticket.

[Carrieyazel]

177. There's no way a candidate with her unfavorables can beat McCain.

They have so much (even newer stuff) to use against her it isn't even funny. The sniper fire, the boneheaded pandering and ridiculous mistakes she's made throughout the campaign are easy pickings for the other side. They'll have numerous videos showing her flopping, lying, pandering and looking like a blithering idiot. She'll never make it.

[casus belli]

179. That's a reasonable take. But it doesn't make it suck any less.

It would be one thing if they got an issue to stick with some legitimacy, but how many times are we, as a party, going to let them destroy our candidates by clinging to right wing talking points about our candidates as if they were our own.

Watching Hillary use this has been a sickening spectacle. Watching Democrats feed latent racism, by running on their own with these non-issues because it helps their candidate, has been even worse.