It's About The Superdelegates, Now.

[tekisui]

We have a good idea of how the Pledged Delegate count will end. Obama will hold his lead somewhere in the 130-150 range. As we all know, neither Hillary nor Obama will reach 2025 without the endorsements of the Superdelegates.

We know that SD's are free to decide, the same as us, who they support. What I want to look at is how many Obama will need to clinch, and how many Hillary will need to clinch.

Since Hillary is trailing, I will lean in her favor with the count. If she wins or ties 8 of the last 9 contests she could end with a absolute maximum of around 1557 PD's. I really don't see it getting that high, or her winning that many contests.

She will need some 468 SD's. She has, currently, the support of 259. She needs 209 more. If she gets 26 or the last 64 Add-on Superdelegates, basing it on states won, she would need 183 of the remaining 232 Uncommitted SD's.

My question is how could she convince 183 off the 232 that she is more deserving of their support than Obama? She must win over 79% of the remaining SD's to win.

Her argument of Obama's non-electability? That doesn't seem to be working. Her argument of the Popular Vote count is severely flawed and also not working.

Barring an indictment of Obama or a epic scandal, what can she do to convince AT LEAST 79% of the remaining SD's?

[MadBadger]

1. Do you think she has a chance to win the popular vote by running up the score in KY and WV?

[tekisui]

2. I don't, and neither does Jimmy Carter.

She can't get the Popular Vote without using the false MI and FL Primaries.

[tekisui]

3. Also, the SD's are intelligent enough to see through that false argument.

It ignores Caucuses, and the entire purpose of the Delegate System. It is really a ridiculous argument.

[onenote]

4. I think you are right, but (there's always a "but")

Keep in mind that SDs can change their positions. Don't think it will happen, but can't say it won't.

[Doityourself]

5. The WSJ has a good article on this..I posted it.

[phrigndumass]

6. I posted this in cali's thread, but it's good here, too ...

If Senator Clinton wins all the remaining races 60 to 40, Senator Obama will still win more than half of the pledged delegates, and will need far fewer superdelegate endorsements. This is because the primary race is 90% over.



:D

[tekisui]

7. No Hillary Supporter has a plausible way for how she could do it.

On May 20th, Obama will clinch the PD race, outright. Once the SD's move to him and make it mathematically impossible for Hillary to reach it, your Hucky index, they will flood to Obama. Then, when he has a combination of PD's and SD endorsement's, I expect HIllary's SD's to start to switch, and that will end it.

When Hillary's SD's start to move, she will no longer have the support to stay in to the Convention. That probably won't happen until after June 3rd.

I like the graphs!

[spooky3]

8. I believe the rules are that after the first round of voting, if there is no winner,

all delegates (not just superdelegates) are free to vote for whoever they want to. This would include people OTHER than Obama and Clinton, though in my opinion there wouldn't be a lot of delegates who would do that.

If I am correct about the rules, if Obama does not win on the first vote, it is easy to see how Clinton could win on the second.

[tekisui]

9. There is no way for there not to be a winner on round one with

only 2 people on the ballot.

I don't think it will go to the Convention, but if it does, Obama will win the first and only round.

You are correct that all delegates would be released if one did not get 2025, but with only 2, one will.

[spooky3]

13. according to this blog post, the first round CAN be "inconclusive"

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/03/algoreglobalwar.html

Presumably, some delegates may vote for Edwards, Dodd, etc., or not vote at all.

[tekisui]

14. It would require it to be so close, that Edwards' 18 delegates

block 2025, or some siting out, yes. It is highly unlikely though.

[spooky3]

15. I don't think that it's that unlikely that there will be abstentions on the first round.

A lot depends on what happens in the intervening time, of course. But I certainly don't see this as a lock for Obama as you seem to.

[phrigndumass]

10. You're right. Switching will happen in the end, but not the way some people foretell

They forget, switching can go either way.

:toast:

[crankychatter]

11. How many SDs would it take for Obama or Clinton to reach 2025?

could the SDs decide this thing now, or in May with certainty?

I mean zero opportunity of protracted haggling?

is there a target number for either candidate to go all the way before convention? Not just the majority... but the FULL NOMINATION ????

[tekisui]

12. Not now,

Obama is 296 shy of 2025, as of right now. Exactly 296 SD's remain uncommitted, but some of those will go to HIllary as Add-ons.

At the end of May, he will need still around 138 more of the 232 SD's up for grabs. So, it could end in May.

I think they will start breaking hard after May 20th, when Obama has the PD majority locked. At some point the SD's will start to leave HIllary. I think mid-June is when Obama will reach 2025+, not until after all the votes are cast.

[crankychatter]

16. ok but based on this projection... nother Q?

What I'm hearing is... there ARE enough SDs to put one or the other over the top prior to Convention... adding in the delegates acquired from these impending primaries... yes?

so I guess what I'm hoping... is one of ya'all that have an understanding of this...

can give us a countdown with that specific number in mind...

based on projected delegates acquired by both candidates, presuming current polls are accurate...(big if so it's a shifting number)....

for example... IF Obama got 100 percent of the Super-delegates NOW... and ONE more after SC, IN, WV, KY... then he would BE the nominee... no questions.

See? The number of SDs needed for 2024 or whatever... will go down after every vote... each candidate will have a different number...

I think that's a crisp way of putting it to us... how many SDs now? and now? how about now?

like that

sorry... been up all night packing to move to kansas city... so I'm a little bleary.... AND, I'm old