Playing with Electoral Math

[alexwcovington]

I'm running on the assumption that Gore was a bad energizer for Democrats, so I'm betting all the blue states will vote for Kerry. The battlegrounds will be a handful of states Bush won in 2000, but have voted Democratic before.

Bush will have to win them all again, whereas Kerry just needs to pick up ten votes.

Ohio - 20 votes
North Carolina - 15 votes
Missouri - 11 votes
Louisiana - 9 votes
West Virginia - 5 votes
New Hampshire - 4 votes

There's also a chance for Kerry to put up a fight in Georgia (15) and Nevada (5), but there's a distinct red tilt there.

I'm calling Florida tainted. So don't bet on it.

Thoughts?

[wyethwire]

1. A diminished Nader

will make Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico and Oregon much "darker" blue this time around

[Lefty Pragmatist]

2. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOhio

is the key. Not only does flipping it give us > 270, but it gives Bush a huge challenge in getting back those 20 EV somewhere else.

It's a good thing, because I don't see any of the other battleground states on that list flipping to us.

[Lauren2882]

4. Good thing Al Franken..

is during his "Bleeding Ohio" initiative. He said recently on the Factor that he's convinced 9 people to move to Ohio.

[quaoar]

3. Hmmmm

I think Nevada is a good possibility -- as well as Arkansas.

And I would not write off Arizona, Colorado or Virginia.

[alexwcovington]

6. Well....

I think Arkansas only went blue for Clinton because of Clinton.

Arizona is on the edge of the realm of possibility IMO, but Colorado and Virgina are bought-and-paid-for red states.

[Spangle]

5. Re think on Florida

Florida may be "tainted". But there is even less voting for Bush then before. A LOT of people from DEMOCRATIC NY moved to florida after 9/11. At least 2 on my street alone. Tee hee..

Florida was "hot" for Bush in 2000, it was a true battle zone. Rapid little "Rushies" made it hard to speak anything but repug speak. NONE of that in 2004. If they are heard, it is a peep. MAJOR tide change in Florida.

With all the games, Gore still won Florida. Alot of those games have been put on notice by the Kerry campaign and the media.

Repugs will have to come up with a whole new set of tricks for the 2004 election and get rid of a whole lot more votes!

Florida as a blue state alone will give Kerry the election if all other states fall the same as they did in 2000. I don't see any blue states turning red. But I do see other red states turning blue.

If I was to guess, the republican games will happen in another state. To much focus on Florida this time around. Kerry already announced his "vote counting " legal team for Florida and is already studing the matter AND made this known publicly. Another words, he put the state on NOTICE.

[tritsofme]

13. My concern about Florida is Jeb's landslide in 2002

If it has been trending toward the Dems since 2000, why was Jeb able to clean house in his reelection, even given all the resources the DNC put into the race?

I think our best hope is Ohio, but Florida wouldn't hurt either.

[yellowcanine]

23. 2 new wrinkles in Fla - Cubans divided and African-Americans energized

mean a Kerry win. Cubans are divided because of latest restrictions on travel to Cuba and sending money to family members in Cuba by the Miami Cubans. Bush will likely still win the Cuban vote but by a smaller margin and there will be more staying home. African Americans, otoh, will be energized by the disenfranchisement through the phony "felon" purging, the whole 2000 mess in general, and the recent dissing of the NAACP by Bush. There will be a massive turnout by African-Americans imo - not just in Florida but across the country. Also there will be a larger than usual turnout by the 18-34 group against Bush because of F-911, imo. And then there are the seniors pissed off about prescription drugs. Florida is in the bag for Kerry, imo. So even if Kerry loses Pennsylvania - a slim possibility, imo., he picks up Florida instead and needs only one large state or two small states to win.

[Syrinx]

7. I think we'll get the Buckeyes

Very good shot at North Carolina. I think we win West Virginia.

I think we'll also pick up Arizona, unless Bush dumps Cheney for McCain.

Oh yeah, I'd also give a very slight edge to Kerry/Edwards in Louisiana.

[alexwcovington]

9. They've already got the Bush-Cheney 04 stickers printed

Cheney is a lose-lose situation. If you keep him on, you maintain the image of solidarity to your people, but everyone else will just think they're going for corruption again. If you dump Cheney for a more palatable contender like McCain or Powell, then you're admitting you were wrong about having Cheney for VP and opening up an attack window.


So the pugs are pretty boxed-in on this one.

[demwing]

17. If Cheney goes, it will be by his own hand.

Bush can't dump him without repercussions.

But...Cheney just might develop more serious heart conditions and retire, or step into a Chief of Staff position.

[Peachhead22]

8. Kerry *will* get N.H. this time

Kerry will get New Hampshire this time. I'd put money on it. I think Kerry's up by double digits in the polls there.

Jeb's being called on a lot of his pre-election rigging $%^# (bogus felons list, BBV, etc.) and plus I'm sure with all the talk about hanging chads and misleading ballots last time there isn't going to nearly the amount of mistaken votes. So IMO, Florida looks pretty good for us this time around. Too much scrutiny for BS this time around.

The jobs situation may help us in W.Va. and Ohio. Plus with the Abu Ghraib scandal and lots of W.Va. Guardman and Reserves being called up (and shafted with extensions and stop-losses), W.Va.'s looking like a strong possibility for our side.

Missouri, I just don't know.

I still think N.C. and Louisiana will go Republican, but Bush is gonna have to work a little for N.C.

[alexwcovington]

10. WV will almost certainly swing back

They voted for Dukakis even. But WV alone, even with NH, won't win us the election. We've got to get one of the bigger ones.

If Edwards can deliver North Carolina, we've got this one in the bag.

[saccheradi]

19. North Carolina

I think North Carolinians are ready to offer up a surprise upset coming from outside its agrarian base. There's enough interest here in having NC represented in the white house that I think it will bring a large enough body of those who would otherwise vote republican to Edwards...

It depends on how the campaign is handled here, if we can kindle the high level of State Pride behind Edwards, we can have NC.

[Frodo]

20. Unlikely, but it WILL help Bowles.

[newyawker99]

25. Hi saccheradi!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[fujiyama]

11. Kerry has a good chance

of taking NH, which was one of the states where it can be argued Nader tipped the state to Bush. I think it'll go to Kerry this time.

The only two blue states that worry me are OR and WI. Both seem to be too damn close and Nader could make a difference.

That's why Kerry needs to win FL and/or FL. If he wins both, then he wins.

[tritsofme]

12. He can loose either NH or WV and still win

If he looses both and all else stays the same, then it goes to the House.

In the end I think he's will win NC and LA without much of a problem.

Missouri might have been in play if Gephardt was on the ticket, but I think that will stay in the red camp.

The big one is Ohio. No Republican has won without it, and the only way he could get away with it is if PA flips, and from recent polls it looks like it is trending back toward Kerry.

And we can't forget about Florida...

[TruthIsAll]

14. You forgot AR, VA, AZ, CO...

These may all come into play. We'll know by Aug.1 if Kerry has a shot.

Oh, and there is a big spotlight on Jeb Bush in FL. I think JFK will take the state with 53%.

[AlecBGreen]

21. VIRGINIA BABY

it breaks my heart when I see my lovely state all red on election night coverage. This is definitely a winnable state for Kerry/Edwards. To win they need to do a few things: 1) SHOW UP! - They need to travel the state and meet the peeps 2) Use Warner - He is a popular govenor and having him stump for Kerry would definitely help 3) Dont touch the gun issue with a 10 foot pole. Do these things and VA is OURS!

-Alec

edit: speling

[Scottie72]

15. I also believe Kerry has a fighting chance in VA.

Living here in VA, (hampton roads) I have seen far mor Kerry/anti bush stickers that pro bush. I have seen some polls having them being as close as 2 or 3 points.

On the local channels I have only seen Kerry commercials. (Though on national cable channels I have witness both)

If the election is held, I wouldn't be surprised at a complete Kerry landslide.

[DaveSZ]

16. Arizona was tied

until McCain endorsed Bush.

Now * is 12 points ahead.

[dusty64]

18. Don't forget

Arkansas and Arizona, I've seen polls where they are even. I've seen some also with Kerry ahead in Nevada, NH, Ohio, and WV. Looks very hopeful assuming a fair election or an election at all. It appears the rightwing will "reschedule" the elections till a time that looks favorable to them and there has not been a peep of opposition to it.

[Fed Up]

22. Florida hispanic voting age pop. is 30% higher than in 2000.....

....according to Mark Gersh. He had an interesting article that I printed in May, entitled "The New Battleground."

This Hispanic stat sounds crucial, especially with more people angry at Whistle Ass's New Cuba travel policy.

[tedoll78]

24. I like our chances.

I've seen polling showing that Kerry would win Nevada, West Virginia, and Florida by about 5% if the election were held today.

And if I were Kerry's campaign, I'd wage a "fake campaign" in Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Virginia, and Arizona:
Fake the leaking of fake internal polling results showing the race a dead heat.
Put-up videos on the website showing footage of thousands of volunteers allegedly scouring the states in GOTV operations.
Buy token amounts of advertising.
Be sure to mention these states while talkin' trash about how well the campaign is going.

So basically, the idea would be to make Bush nervous enough to want to spend some time and money in these states. Meanwhile, an all-out guerilla ground campaign should be waged in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, etc.

But I like our chances.