Obama Supporters: How are those PA excuses working out for you?

[Austinitis]

So we all know that Obama outspent Hillary 3 to 1 in Texas and lost. And we all know that he outspend her 3 to 1 in Ohio and lost. And he outspent her 3 to 1 in Pennsylvania and lost.

And after all of that the excuse was "well she started off ahead!" and "but he moved the poll numbers!"

So the question is: What excuse are you going to use after Hillary gets outspent 3 to 1 in North Carolina but does a better job of moving the poll numbers than Obama ever did? And if your excuse for why Obama couldn't break a lead (with reams of money!) was weak, what on earth are you going to tell us now that it's clear he can't hold a lead (again, with reams of money)?

First, Take a look at the chart:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_primary-275.html

Then take a look at the http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/downloads/uploaded/43_InsiderAdvantage_Majority_Opinion_NC_Dem_Poll_(4-30-08).pdf">polls

In the only NC poll that with a sample date that cleanly reflects the new Wright scandal (only sampling done 4/29 or later will reflect the impact) OBAMA IS LOSING IN NC.

Face the facts: Hillary's back.


Hillary Supporters: https://contribute.hillaryclinton.com/form.html?sc=3">Show her some love.

Obama supporters: If you're going to give Obama money in retaliation, make sure you give him more than three times what we're giving. Your past donations haven't been working out too well.

[2rth2pwr]

1. KA-POW! Crickets from the Obama supporters.

When she does the impossible and wins NC, I want to see the stunned look on their faces.

[JimGinPA]

3. It's Hard To Argue With Stupid...

And anyone who doesn't realize at this point we're just going through the motions, that Obama has an insurmountable lead, is just that. Hope for a meltdown, cling to polls, it just doesn't matter. President Obama. Get used to it.

[JoFerret]

45. Candidate Obama

maybe.
President? Most unlikely. unfortunately - (because if he is the nominee he is the only hope we have whether we like him or not.)

[pdxmom]

10. Umm...sorry to burst your bubble, but this is the Internetweb...you are

seeing words, not faces.

[2rth2pwr]

24. A guy can wish, can't he?

[Solomon]

38. LOL You guys are doing a lot more than wishing.

More like dreaming. Or rather hallucinating.

[MarjorieG]

26. Facing weeks of crap from HRC, media, GOP finally creating a false choice.

His numbers will go up with a different narrative. Let's see if the media will tell the truth.

[roguevalley]

44. you are still losing. she is losing. how does that feel? Oh and Tuzla.

[ProSense]

2. Here

answer

[Texas Hill Country]

4. k & r

[PBS Poll-435]

5. K&R

:toast:

[Forkboy]

6. About the same as those Feb 5th excuses are for the Hillary camp.

[Lucky 13]

7. He is WINNING. She is LOSING. That's all I need to know.

Thanks for reminding me. Just donated again.

[democracy1st]

35. i'll make a donation also

[dionysus]

8. obama won texas troll....

[Austinitis]

22. By getting fewer votes? I don't think that counts as a "win".

But hey! Who needs democracy?

[Skwmom]

27. Clinton counts Rush Limbaugh votes in her popular vote totals and I believe there was

an analysis which showed she would have lost the popular vote in TX but for the Limbaugh voters.

[Mooney]

28. The primary is a delegate race and Obama got more delegates out of TX than Hillary did.

[JackORoses]

33. no, by getting more delegates

That is all that counts in the Democratic Primary.

But hey! Who needs reality?

[crimsonblue]

34. "Let's just willy nilly ignore Texas, bc we didn't like the result of the caucuses"

Tossing aside valid delegates and voting systems sure sounds a bit hypocritical to me, but what do I know? I don't live in Oppositeland like you.

[AZBlue]

36. "It's the DELEGATES, stupid!"

[book_worm]

9. When Obama is nominated it's going to be so nice on DU again.

[Connie_Corleone]

11. I'm impatiently waiting for that day.

[Freedom Train]

42. In your fevered dreams. n/t

[EFerrari]

12. In your fevered dreams. n/t

[Connie_Corleone]

43. Go suck on a lemon.

[NeedleCast]

13. What Excuses>

That Hillary managed a 10% vicotry in a state she once led by 25%?

None of the Super D's must be hearing the excuses either, because they're all dropping for Obama (some even changing sides from Hillary).

Hillary's not back. She's still losing. She'll still be losing after NC and IN. She'll still be losing when we get to convention. All the jumping up and down and gloating over daily polls wont matter a bit, and Hillary will still lose.

[powergirl]

14. Let me know if any Obama supporters defect to Clinton

I've been hearing crickets for the past month on this one. :popcorn:

[Symarip]

15. Y'know, the funny thing is

Hillary would have plenty more money if she didn't blow her wad early (y'know, like on the Hill-A-Copter) thinking she had the nomination wrapped up.

She's losing.

Life's a bitch - get a helmet.

[Skwmom]

16. With the MILLIONS in free media ads, the Rendell Machine, Obama running against Bubba and wife,

and his holding back on attacking Clinton, it's not surprising she won PA (though since the exit polls didn't match the results AND a significant portion of the machines in PA are touch screen with NO PAPER TRAIL,due to Rendell and his Republican buddies, who knows who really won).

Once again Clintons corporate buddies to the rescue. She's getting a free infomercial this weekend from ABC and they have spent million upon millions in air time attacking Obama for her.

If Clinton was really attacked, she would sink like a rock.

Hillary Clinton is getting REAMS OF FREE CORPORATE MEDIA DONATIONS and it should be illegal (but even if it was, it's not like doing illegal acts would stand between the Clintons and getting back in the Whitehouse).

[cali]

17. no excuses. Hillary won in PA. Obama closed much of the gap

but her strength with the PA demographics prevailed. And if Obama doesn't do well in NC and IN next week, the answer will clearly be that Wright damaged him badly.

On the plus side, SDs are still flowing in for Obama. What did you think of Joe Andrew's high profile defection? Kind of interesting, wouldn't you say? I mean, here's a guy appointed to be DNC Chair by Bill and one of Hilly's first SD endorsements, and he moved to Obama in a very high profile way. What do you think that says? I'd be happy to explain it to you.

[MarjorieG]

25. I keep reminding numbers improved on demographics from OH. AND voting suppression by Ed essential.

[Mooney]

18. If Hillary's back, she's about three months too late.

Obama got his delegate lead in February, and Hillary's never been able to overcome it. She won't be able to in the upcoming contests either, even if she wins every single one that's left.

Just because you start scoring at the end of the game, it doesn't mean that you're winning. It just means that you wasted a whole shitload of time.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

19. excuses? hmmm...do the laws of mathematics require excuses?

or should we just take the Clinton camp's word that 2+2=197?

[livetohike]

20. Jealous much?

The Clintons would spend that much if they had it, but since the campaign is so badly mismanaged - they are in debt.

They have to resort to propping Sen. Clinton up to make her look like something she isn't. What will the next set up photo opportunity be? Hillary bullriding at a rodeo, or Hillary the NASCAR driver?

[onenote]

21. once again: the Insider Advantage poll in North Carolina is not credible

Two weeks ago, this same poll found that Obama would get over 80 percent of the AA vote and only estimated that 24.9 percent of the vote would be AA. Both of those estimates were conservative (since reportedly upwards of 40 percent of the Democratic vote in NC is AA). The new version is even more out of whack.

The new version continues to assume only 25 percent of the Democratic primary electorate will be AA and also finds Obama's support among the AA voters has dropped to 64%. The polls findings simply are not credible.

By the way, an analysis of Insider Advantage's polling found that they have been wrong in every poll thus far regarding Barack Obama's support, underestimating his support by an average of 13.4 points and overestimating Clinton's support by an average of 3.4 points.


http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/articles/insider-advantage-primary-grade-022808004.html

[kmsarvis]

30. Sorry for repeating your point down thread.

[billyoc]

23. Clinton could win every remaining contest by 20 points and not catch up.

It's over.

[kmsarvis]

29. "Obama is losing by 3"

Are you referring to the Insider Advantage poll in which only 25% of the people surveyed were African-American.That poll also showed that of that 25% Obama is only getting 64% support.

FACT 1: 40% of NCs registered democrats are African-American.

FACT 2: Obama has been consistently getting between 80-90% of the AA vote.(92% in PA)

[SeaLyons]

31. Touch Down!!!

Great Post!!!

Go Hillary!

[Gore1FL]

32. As long as he gets over 40% of the post PA delegates

He wins.

So far all that has happned between PA and now is super delegates.

16 for Obama (including one who switched from Cinton)
11 for Clinton (including one who switched to Obama)

16/27 = 59.3%

He's doing a little better than needed.

Taking into account the polls in NC and In most favorable to Clinton (despite being statistically out of range) and giving her all the undecides:

NC:
Obama 42%

IN
Obama 38%


So even in her wildest dreams, she is still below the pace needed to win.

[rocktivity]

37. In the meantime, Hillary will have to score 68% of the vote

in ALL the remaining contests to get her numbers close enough to Obama's to "seal the deal" with the superdelegates:

41-point or more margin of victory = blowout

36 - 40 points = a "real" win

30 - 35 points = good, but not good enough

11 – 29 points = a wash

5 - 10 points = useless

1 - 4 points = concession speech

:headbang:
rocknation

[zulchzulu]

39. OK...she blew a 15% lead in the polls and got 10 delegates and...

...SHE'S BROKE AS A TRAMP!

:rofl:

[MattBaggins]

40. Outspent her?

Are you really going to bring that up again? How many silver platters do you think I own?

Why are you so adamant on blaming her fiscal mismanagement on Obama? She is the one who started running for President six years ago amassing the largest warchest and creating the biggest political juggernaut in recent history. She hired a four million dollar campaign strategist, had "the best democrat fundraiser" working for her and wasted all her money. If she has no sense of finacial restraint or responsibility; why should anyone in their right mind entrust her with our healthcare?

[superkia]

41. I dont think either of the candidates could spend enough money...

to beat the media. The media has the most control over what most people believe about politics and current events, one of my brothers and my mother both repeat all of the talking points and have no idea that they are just being lied to or given spin. I try my best to fill them in on anything that I learn from my political internet addiction but they argue tooth and nail and think that the media wouldn't lie or spin the truth. They are like most Americans that don't have the time or interest in educating themselves and use media spin as fact.

Its the same with the polls, the media isn't a reflection of the polls, the polls are a reflection of the media and the media is agenda driven not fact driven. Good luck and I hope your way of thinking makes you feel better about yourself but I hope it doesn't have a negative affect on someone else's view of things. The medias spin is bad enough, Americans really don't need any spin from fellow Americans...Wake up before its too late, this is our children's future your playing with!