Good News: Bush now being forced to run ad buys in SC

[displacedyankeedem]

I saw them during the local news tonight. Every dollar spent here is one less dollar that goes to OH, FL, IA, WI, and NV. That's what picking Edwards will do for Kerry, force Bush to throw money away into black holes.

[tech3149]

1. even better

I think that the skewed poll #'s still indicate that NC is still in play. Add to that the many indications that * is losing at least 10-12% of the fundie base indicate some reason for optimism.


Wait! Democratic optimism... can't be

[phiddle]

2. Agree that he's losing the fundie base,

which is why they're pushing the Defense of Marriage Act. Conventional Wisdon is to cater to your base in off years, and run to the middle in election years. The fact that they are not doing this indicates that they are in real trouble.

[Inland]

3. Losing base, yes

Not only that, but the news on the corporate giveaway front is that Bush continues to have to prove himself to his patrons. Today's front page is the new rules to pay for roads to help loggers take our national forests for zero payments. YOu wouldn't have to take that one without having to pay off your base.

[tom22]

4. I absolutely agree

on the Constitutional hate amendment. This is an issue which alienates the unaffiliated centrists. If Bush somehow thinks he needs to rally his base in the middle of July he knows he is in trouble. I suspect that Karl Rove fears a massive Democratic turnout, unlike anything that has been seen in twenty years. It's all good.

[I Lean Left]

5. Absolutely agree

There is a huge effort to enroll and educate new voters. There was an article in the Washington Post about a group (I want to say Moving America Forward) that is going door to door with Palm Pilots in this huge effort (costing $100 million) to increase registrations by hundreds of thousands of voters. If a good chunk of these new enrollees vote, watch out! And these new enrollees aren't showing up in any poll. They aren't considered likely voters because they didn't vote in the last election. Also, a poll tries to keep the proportions the same as the state enrollments (Dems, Repubs, Inds). If there is a shift in the enrollments, but the polls aren't polling more Dems to reflect this shift, then the polls are underreporting Dem support. Rove must have a sense this is happening.

[TaleWgnDg]

13. "a massive Dem turnout, unlike anything . . . in 20 years"

oooh, to think that is true . . . to think that is true . . .

:kick: :kick: :kick:

[CrispyQ]

17. I hope, I hope, I hope!!!! eom

[THUNDER HANDS]

20. um

didn't we lose in a landslide 20 years ago?

[newyawker99]

21. Hi TaleWgnDg!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Lefty Pragmatist]

6. Gore had the same problem after picking Leiberman

when he had to do his half-baked Populist Waltz. That wasted time and drew away moderate support. Bush is now doing the same thing with the Homophobe Pandering Amendment. Kerry and Edwards should not be out there every day saying "this is mean to gays." They should be out there every day saying "Bush is so out of touch he thinks *this* is the biggest problem the US has." The moderates -- even some moderate Republicans -- will agree with that, and once they agree they'll also start thinking that Bush's insistence on these social agenda items is not a little bit creepy.

I love *every dollar* these guys have to throw away on shoring up the Christaliban.

[CTLawGuy]

15. Actually

Gore was in the toilet until he STARTED the "populist waltz." It worked well enough for him to be the popular vote winner.

[quaoar]

7. Are those ads

in markets that overlap into North Carolina?

[displacedyankeedem]

10. Hmm, barely

Our ABC station is out of Asheville, NC (WLOS) and I've seen both Kerry and Bush ads.

The two others are NBC Greenville(WYFF) and CBS Spartanburg based. Western NC gets those stations out of Charlotte primarily, but I don't doubt that there are a few NC counties which get news from us.

[wishlist]

18. Asheville gets NBC and CBS out of Greenville/Spartanburg S.C.

which is why I got so pissed at the sorry coverage given to the Kerry/Edwards rally by the Asheville ABC station owned by Sinclair Broadcasting. Their coverage focused more on the anti-Kerry Bush protestors and they had some nameless, faceless reporter who said that there were 'hundreds' of people there with no mention of the 20,000 turnout.

By contrast NBC Channel WYFF out of Greenville S.C. gave wonderful positive coverage to the rally.

[LimpingLib]

8. Probabilly to help the Senate canidate.

He is killing Kerry in North Carolina, the least conservative of the Carolinas. As Ive been saying for years here there is no silver linning in Presidential elections in states like Kentucky, North Carolina, and South Carolina . We will get killed in all 3 every election like in 2000 (NC-13% , SC-16% , Ky-16%).

[Darkamber]

9. Bush is doing buys in other states too...WA is being hit

I couldn't believe the amount of Bush Ads I got hit with today. TV...every hour on my network. And radio...my favorite AM talk radio..KIRO...it was at least once an hour with Bush ads.

They are all attack ads against Kerry. Not a word against Edwards...just all attacks against Kerry.

This coming from a 'battleground' state that was just listed outside the margin of error for Kerry.

The GOP is pushing hard.

[fujiyama]

12. I really don't think

WA is even a battleground. There's hardly a chance in hell Bush will win there, barring an Osama capture, a terrorist attack, or some other major event.

Hell, even with Ralph Nader in the mix, WA went to Gore by some 5 points. Plus, wasn't there a poll the other day showing Bush barely in double digits in Seattle?

[fujiyama]

11. Check out these numbers:

http://surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/SC040713pressen.pdf

51-44 in favor of Bush. I wouldn't call it a battleground, but it makes sense that Bush is spending money there now.

[Lexingtonian]

22. yep

The polling this year in general has SC slipping about 3% further toward Democrats than in 2000 and the Democratic vote much more hardened up- showing up earlier in the polling- than in 2002. I've been a bit surprised, thinking that SC was net aging and its young people were migrating away, that it seems to be keeping right at the national trend (3.0-3.5% Democratic gain every four years).

At usual turnout rates SC should be a 53% R, 46% D split in November. DeMint seems well regarded and allied up enough that Tenenbaum doesn't have a real chance of winning. But 2006 and 2008 should become pretty interesting.

NC seems to be trending D faster than national average- about 4%/4 years- and ought to split about 52/48 and standard turnout. (Bowles might make it.) Virginia should be closer and may just flip. That's part of the reason John Warner has become such a hedger recently.

[radfringe]

14. more from the RBS (resident bush supporter)

at my workplace

:eyes: This guy never gives up -- got to give him credit for that

started in by trashing Kerry. So I asked him if he got his info from personal research or off of Fauxnews or from bush* commercials, then suggested a few websites to read

more trashing Kerry was his only response

me: Don't you think it's kind of funny that 70-80% of the bush* ads trash Kerry? if bush* is doing such a great job - why isn't he running ads that highlight those accomplishments.

RBS: bush* has done good things

me: like what?

RBS: Tax cuts

me: you mean the tax cuts that resulted in local tax hikes to cover shortfalls? or do you mean the tax cuts that resulted in emergency, first responder, fire and police layoffs? or do you mean the tax cuts that resulted in cutbacks in school resources?

RBS: he's creating jobs

me: some jobs have been created, yes - but he's still about 2-million jobs short of breaking even on the 3-million lost - and the jobs he's created are low-paying to minimum wage positions - and we are exporting more jobs every day

RBS: we're safer today from terrorists

me: we are? then somebody better tell Ridge because he's running around the country warning us of a terror attack - and did you know there is serious planing going on about postponing the election because of a terror attack? doesn't sound like we are safer to me

he walked away mumbling

[tech3149]

19. If you can't send them away thinking

at least send them away mumbling.
Good responses to all the talking points.

[dusty64]

16. Cool!

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