Current Electoral Vote Predictor: Kerry 322 Butch 205

[whirlygigspin]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[wryter2000]

1. Awesome!

He's gone. I can feel it. Then the real work begins. Rebuilding our country and never allowing something like this to happen again.

[coloradodem2005]

2. Why is WV for Bush?

Just a question.

[osaMABUSh]

3. Accordingly, Kerry could lose Ohio and Fla and still win

Total votes 322 + 205 = 527 This poll had TN as a tie with no one getting the 11 EVs. Let's give them to Bush for the 538 total EVs available.

Fun with electoral numbers:

Kerry 322 - 47(OH/FL) = 275
Bush 205 + 47 + 11(TN) = 263

Kerry could even lose NH or Maine (4 EVs) and still win.

Kerry 275 - 4 = 271
Shrub 263 + 4 = 267

Under this scenario Kerry would have to hold Iowa and Mo (18 EVs). I can see the strategy in picking Edwards over Gephardt: With Gep he has to give you Iowa AND Mo. assuming he can't deliver OH or FLA. With Edwards you bet he can just cement Ohio OR FLA. As a bonus Edwards may help more than Gep in Iowa (re: Iowa caucuses)

Kerry wins without the South. Bush wins the entire South. Kerry could lose all these states: AR, TN, FLA, NC, VA and WVA but still win the Presidency.

[absolutezero]

4. WOOHOO!

hope it stays that way or better until the election

[joanne]

5. By all accounts, Chimpy should be toast

but I agree with posters who have said let's not take anything for granted.

We have to work hard to ensure a Kerry/Edwards victory.

[fujiyama]

6. I like how that looks

but it takes into account the Zogby interactive polls.

This site is run by a conservative, but his designations and judgement makes sense.

http://home.comcast.net/~gerrydal/

[dusty64]

7. I think assuming a FAIR

election Kerry will win. I swore I saw a map with Kerry ahead in West Virginia very recently.

[quaoar]

8. Please also notice

That they have moved South Carolina and Colorado to "weak Bush," meaning both are winnable.