Federal Review Composite Poll: Bush 283, Kerry 255

[phillybri]

THE FIRST BOUNCE?
Bush 48.5% – 283 EV | Kerry 49.5% – 255 EV
EV without Toss Up states (under 2% margin): Bush 222 | Kerry 234 | Toss 82
July 13, 2004

Pundits have long pointed to the Veep selection as the time of the first real bounce in this relatively stable race. Edwards was selected on July 6, and we now have a full week of polling on the national level and state level (though many of the new state polls are from before the announcement). Was there a bounce?

Yes, kinda. Most polls show an increased lead for Kerry, but generally so small and within the range of past fluctuations in polling results over recent months. The Composite Poll shows a net gain for Kerry in one week of 2.7%. His biggest one week net gain was in the May 18 Composite Poll when he picked up 4.1% against Bush. That week was also Kerry's (or either candidate's) biggest lead since I began this analysis on March 9. Kerry led by 2.7%.

http://www.federalreview.com/compositepoll.htm

[swag]

1. More telling may be the "Favorability" ratings running this morning

as the lead graphic on Pollingreport.com

Kerry/Edwards have higher ratings than Bush/Cheney according to Gallup.

[MallRat]

2. WI, PA, and NH are toss-ups?

Not from the polling numbers I've been seeing. Kerry-Edwards should be up 4-7 points in each of those states.

-MR

[Jackpine Radical]

3. I'm beginning to think that all this early polling

is a buncha crap. For one example, WI is a tossup here, but the latest Zogby/WSJ poll has Kerry up by 9 and a 99% probability of winning if the election were held today.

Personally, I think that Bush is sinking in popularity/credibility & Kerry hasn't really taken off yet, but will have plenty of disaffected voters to start attracting once his campaign gets off the ground.

So far, Kerry has mostly been standing on the sidelines watching Bush melt down, and this is a brilliant move. Why distract attention from a disaster in progress? There will be plenty of time after the convention to show the alienated masses that they really do have a better alternative.

I keep remembering that Kerry was absolutely nowhere a year ago. Everyone had written him off in favor of Dean, and it stayed that way until the primaries began, then suddenly it was Lazarus Kerry, risen from the dead. I still don't know how he pulled that off, but I think it was a lot more than luck. On my better days, I think it's gonna be a landslide in Nov. (On my less-than-better days I think about emigrating to New Zealand).

[Inland]

4. Never heard of those people, here's Zogby--Kerry way ahead EV

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=842
Released: July 13, 2004
Kerry Gains Momentum in the Battleground States - New Zogby Interactive Presidential Battleground Poll Reveals

Democratic Presidential candidate John Kerry did some good for his campaign by choosing John Edwards, a U.S. senator from North Carolina, as his running mate, the latest edition of the Zogby Interactive collection of polls in battleground states shows.

Mr. Kerry has regained an advantage in the Electoral College race for the White House in the latest round of simultaneous polling in 16 key states in the 2004 Presidential election, which began as Mr. Kerry was announcing his selection during a rally in Pittsburgh. But while Mr. Kerry has gained some momentum from his vice presidential candidate selection, the polls show the race for the White House is simply too close to call. The poll results in several states in the poll are within the margin for error.

In Tennessee, for instance, the candidates are exactly tied, down to the tenth of a percent. Tennessee’s 11 Electoral College votes have been excluded from the latest tally in the chart below that also recaps past results in this extensive survey program.

Tennessee had been in the Bush category three weeks ago, when the last interactive polling was conducted.

The addition of Mr. Edwards to the Democratic ticket ended months of speculation, and it remains unclear whether this latest poll captures the extent of the public relations “bump” the Kerry ticket will experience because of the selection, or whether it captures just the beginning stages of something that could expand as time goes by.

There are political arguments both ways. Some say that Mr. Edwards has just started to campaign, and that his boyish charm, good looks, and silver tongue can only continue to impress respondents and move poll numbers up, while others say that because he won extensive attention in the Democratic primaries earlier this year, he is a known quantity that won’t move polls much more.


Zogby Polls: The Electoral
College Race So Far:
7/12

President George W. Bush
205

MA Sen. John Kerry
322

[Inland]

5. OR DC political report and its cool graphic

Showing Kerry holding certain and leaning states totalling 254 EV, Bush with certain and leaning of 168, 95 EV too close to call and no polling data for 21

[Zynx]

6. They always give the most optimistic numbers for Bush.

[Frances]

7. The white states on this map

are all leaning Kerry in the polls I have seen.

Even though most polls have Kerry ahead in Florida, that state is so crooked that Kerry may need to get 270 votes without it.

At this point, I think Kerry will win--if the election is not too rigged.

Kerry has said that he is a strong closer. I hope so because I think the Repubs have hinted that he needs to be ahead by 15 points or they will steal the election.

[Beetwasher]

8. Nonsense

They're being incredibly generous to Bush w/ the toss ups...

[phillybri]

9. I don't think so....

The guy that runs the site is on the up-and-up. He's a friend of mine.

[Beetwasher]

10. Apparently, He's Not On The "up-and-up"

Friend of yours or not...Every one of those white battleground states are actually leaning Kerry, and some that he has as lean Bush, are now battleground...

Here's what your friend wrote:

"This week incorporates new polls in 27 states. Highlights include Arkansas (Bush +2 and Kerry +1), Illinois (Kerry +16), Iowa (Kerry +4), Maine (Kerry +1), Michigan (Kerry +2, +7 or +3), Minnesota (Kerry +9), Missouri (Bush +3), New Jersey (Kerry +10), North Carolina - post Edwards selection (Bush +15), Ohio (Bush +4), Pennsylvania (Kerry +5), Virginia (Bush +4), Washington (Kerry +9)."

How are PA (K+5) and OH (which is actually leaning Kerry, don't know what poll he's using) swing and AK, VA and MO not? NH should be considered leaning Kerry and so should WI, PA and FL.

BTW, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt on NC, since he's using that bullshit Gallup poll, but he should update his site now that the new Mason/Dixon poll is out. NC is now a battleground state.

You're friend is disingenuous and inconsistent in his assignment of battleground status and lean status.

[CalebHayes]

11. That map shows Kerry as the winner.

We win all the white states, unless something happens in FL. But we don't need that stupid state anyway.

[dusty64]

12. If EV is leaning Dem

than so is PA. Most polls I've seen also have NH with Kerry in the lead and I don't believe ANY Gore states are going to flip this year considering the horrid state of the Country. Ohio and Florida will be close, but I've seen enough to believe that if there are FAIR elections they will go Democratic.