How Kerry Can Win - Bush's incompetence - CBS

[dArKeR]

John Kerry can win, given George W. Bush's incompetence, and White House strategists realize that. All the Democrats need to do is to peel away some of the Republican "unbase" -- the most wobbly members of the GOP coalition. The caveat is that not many Democrats understand that coalition or why it has beaten the Democrats most of the time since 1968. Nor do most understand the convoluted but related role of Bill Clinton in aborting what could have been a 1992-2004 (or 2008) mini-cycle of Democratic White House dominance and in paving the way for George W.

Elements of this shortsightedness are visible in both the party and the Kerry campaign. While attempts to harness "Anybody but Bush" psychologies and to attract voters without saying much that is controversial might win Kerry a narrow victory, this strategy would be unlikely to create a framework for successful four- or eight-year governance. Deconstructing the Republican coalition is a better long-term bet, and could be done. The result, however, might be to uncage serious progressive reform.

Republicans, in contrast, have been successful in thinking strategically since the late 1960s. From 1968 until Bill Clinton's triumph in 1992, Republicans won five of the six presidential elections, and even Jimmy Carter's narrow victory in 1976 was in many respects a post-Watergate fluke. The two main coalitional milestones were Richard Nixon's 61 percent in 1972 and Ronald Reagan's 59 percent in 1984.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/07/16/opinion/main630220.shtml

[liberalpragmatist]

1. Actually, The Nation

[spooky3]

2. Dem strategists need to spend time in hair salons listening

My hair stylist quietly tells me tons about the complaints of his Repug clients. These clients are not speaking in confidence; they are just chatting with a sympathetic listener about why they are unhappy with Bush and what it would take to win them over.

It's amazing what you can learn through these sources.

[DeepModem Mom]

3. Do tell, spooky3 -- what do you think it would take?

[spooky3]

4. well, what I mean is that other stylists will also hear opinions

like this. I'm quite serious--it's like a bartender that people talk to when they won't talk to their spouses or psychologists.

My particular stylist--and he is only one person--but if Dems would listen to others they'd get a good cross section--reports this kind of comment:

1. Many Reps. are very upset with how poorly planned the Iraq aftermath has been. They want an exit plan now.

2. Many true conservatives are very unhappy about the grossly unbalanced budget. They want a plan for getting us back to even receipts & expenditures plus chipping away at the deficits.

3. Many of them (and this is in the east, so bear that in mind) dislike his personal style of he-man, my way or the highway, combined with inarticulateness. They want the elegant sophisticated moderate Repubs. to return to power.

4. Some of they can't stand Cheney and want Bush to replace him.

DMM, I think you can look at these and easily see how Dems. can focus their message to appeal to these disaffected Reps.

[DeepModem Mom]

5. Good points for Kerry to heed -- and I'm well aware that stylists...

like bartenders, hear, and know, everything!

[DaveSZ]

6. John Edwards understands them

I don't believe Kerry does though.

He can still learn.