New Poll Kerry widens lead in WI 48-42

[59millionmorons]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/fl /

John Kerry and George W. Bush remain in a statistical tie among likely voters in Wisconsin according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 48% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 42% say they would vote for Bush. A total of 4% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 6% of likely voters are undecided.

Without Ralph Nader on the ballot, Kerry leads Bush 49% to 44%, with 7% of likely voters undecided.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

1. Thank God!!!

I was wondering what was up with these other WI polls.

[Renew Deal]

2. I saw a poll 2 days ago

that said he was losing by like 4. These polls are crap.

[WI_DEM]

3. Good news!!

[GainesT1958]

4. I didn't realize that ARG...

Had that big an M.O.E. in its polls. I mean, how could one say that Kerry leading Dub by 48%-42% is a statistaical TIE?:shrug:

Sounds like a heathy lead getting healthier to me--even IF Ralphie Boy makes the ballot there!:D

:kick:

B-)

[spooky3]

5. ???link goes to FL results.

[TheStateChief]

8. Try this link

http://americanresearchgroup.com/wig/

[featherman]

6. ARG is generally regarded to tilt about +2% DEM

but this is cautiously good news. I had considered WI the most in danger of the Upper Midwest's Big Five (IL, MI, IA, MN, WI). Bush campaign has enough money to continue spending in this region but I am guessing it will continue to strengthen as DEM over the next weeks.
In 2000 the Gore strategy was pretty solid. Lock down the three key regions: Pacific:(CA, HI, OR, WA)
Upper Midwest (IL, IA, MI, MN, WI)
Mid Atlantic/New England: (MD, PA, DE, NJ, NY, CT, MA, VT, NH, ME)
Then add FL for the win.
That way some of the other "possible" states (MO, OH, TN,KY, AR, LA, WV, AZ, CO, NM, NV, etc) went didn't matter too much and were gravy if they went DEM0.
Well, we all know what happened.
This year Kerry campaign has more money and a motivated base so they can cast a wider net. But the "core" regions remain the same and unless Bush can make inroads into these three regions, the battle will be entirely fought in the borderline red states. This tilts the advantage strongly to Kerry barring an earth shaking catastrophe that alters the equation.

[MnFats]

7. Yahoo! On, Wisconsin!

Bush is spending time & money there as his handlers think it's a swing state because the margin was small last time. Perhaps he does not realize how many jobs he drove out of Milwaukee and the Green Bay/Fox River corridor.
Go cheeseheads!

(but understand, the packers still suck)

[LimpingLib]

9. Yet another piece of evidence Nader hurts Bush and doesnt hurt Kerry

People can go around repeating lies that Nader tried to beat Wellstone (we went through this 2 years ago and it was thouroughly discredited)or repeat highly misleading claims that Nader hurt Gore in 2000.

Not that we should worry about what votes one canidate "takes" from another canidate but yet more evidence.