The polls say K/E04 is gaining in various states....

[charlyvi]

The polls also said, starting about a month ago, that Kerry/Edwards and Bush*/Cheney are virtually tied. They're still saying the election is a dead heat. This makes no sense to this poor country girl---HOW CAN K/E04 KEEP GAINING STATES AND THE ELECTION STILL BE TIED?

[salinen]

1. Don't worry your pretty little head

just kidding. The scientific word for this is bullshit.

[charlyvi]

2. Okay

Okay. Bullshit I understand. Thanks

[KBlagburn]

12. Look at these sites and you will feel better.

Just remember the national polls don't mean anything. The individual state polls are what's important. And right now Kerry is leading those for a huge advantage in the electoral college.


http://www.electoral-vote.com/
http://www.electionprojection.com/



I think these sites will make you feel better. And also keep in mind that the second site is run by a bush supporter.

[Arugula Latte]

13. Welcome to DU!

:hi: :toast:

[newyawker99]

19. Hi KBlagburn!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[lancdem]

3. It's not tied

Kerry-Edwards has an average lead of about 5 points. Look at it this way: I'm aware of 11 polls that have come out since Edwards was chosen. Nine of those polls have Kerry with some lead, one had Bush ahead and one was a dead heat.

[charlyvi]

4. Right.

Then why does the media keep saying it's a dead heat?

[qazplm]

6. well

to me it's because polling is an inexact science, you are talking about a range...

Kerry has moved to a more comfortable lead but he is still somewhat in that range in several states.

Statistically even a 4-6 point lead is in the neighborhood of "tied".

[Piperay]

17. Yeah, that is the 'margin

of error' and they will always say it's a tie till you get past that and get around an 8-10% lead.

[demwing]

14. Some possibles as to why the media whore for Bush

1) The 5 or 6 remaining media CEOs are in bed with BushCo

2) The individual reporters are afraid of losing Whitehouse access

3) It's more interesting to claim that the race is tight. If all we here from now till Nov 3 is that Kerry is ahead, there will be no drama when Kerry wins.

4) The press corps don't want to report that bush is losing because they know the Diebold fix is in, and they don't want to appear foolish when Bush ends up "winning."

5) I dunno, enter your own guess here!

[dolstein]

5. Because a lot of Americans don't think the way you do

Unfortunately, a lot of DU'ers only associate with people who share their political views. They therefore assume that EVERYBODY thinks the way they do. It reminds of the story about the woman on the Upper East Side who was shocked that Nixon won the 1972 election. After all, she said, she didn't know ANYONE who voted for him.

The fact is, around 45% of American voters are going to vote for Bush no matter what. You may not know who these people are, but they're out there. And as long as Bush can count on that hard core base, this is going to be a pretty close election, especially if Nader continues to play the role of spoiler.

Sorry to dash your hapes, but there's simply no way that Kerry is going to win this one in a landslide.

[Melodybe]

7. Bull! I am in MS and plenty are pissed at Bushco. Kerry is going to win!

And win big, if we get a fair election we are going to win by a HUGE landslide.

Bushco is done, they are going down, I feel it more strongly every single day. People are waking up and I think you are not giving your fellow Americans much credit. Please take into consideration that people are working harder and longer than they have in the last 30 years.

F 9/11 and the late night crews and our hard work have helped open people's eyes and only just now people are starting to realize that they are not better off than they were four years ago. They are beginning to see that they can legitimately lay all of that blame on the fascists in power, and they are pissed.

We have plenty of work left to do, but it will get done. Failure is not an option, we WILL bring them down.

[sandnsea]

15. I disagree

I think the most Bush can solidly count on is 35% to 40%. And I know when Democrats vote, Democrats win and win big. Lots of different groups are turning out the vote in all kinds of places we hadn't even bothered with before. Kerry can easily win this in a landslide.

[I Lean Left]

21. It's possible to get 45% of the vote and lose in a landslide

eom.

[Literate Tar Heel]

22. 45% sounds a bit high to me too

I think Bush has about a 47% hardcore base in NC right now, which is a fairly conservative state, and he won less than 48% of the national vote in 2000 ... my guess is that the "nobody but Bush" crowd right now nationwide is somewhere around 40-41% and that the "anybody who can beat Bush" crowd (which is really what it is more so than people who are going to live and die with Kerry ... this election is really a referendum) is around 43-44%, with the others either voting for Nader, Badnarik, or not yet decided ... that's why I feel fairly certain that, with the undecideds most likely breaking for Kerry that he will win the popular vote (of course there is always the possibility of them trotting out OBL during one of the conventions or black op-ing a video showing Kerry pimping out ho's on the streets of Boston in his younger days or the administration auctioning off California to the highest bidder so they're not citizens and eligible to vote anymore) ... really though at this point I'm looking much more at the state polls than the national polls anyway ... as 2000 showed, it doesn't really matter who gets the most votes anyway

[Lefty Pragmatist]

8. Here is how it could be (and probably is).

Say K/E are picking up pct points across the board but still haven't flipped any states. In that case, it would be mathematically accurate to say the K/E are gaining in various states but the election is still a dead heat.

[Nicholas_J]

9. Virtual tie

Since the margin of errors in the polls are roughly 5 percent (4.5 or so) and the lead that Kerry/Edwards have in polls is roughly 4.5 percent, thats statistically a tie.

Everyone from Charlie Rose, to the various public radio broadcasts, to conservative talks shows point out the fact that since brining Edwards to the campaign, Kerry's lead over Bush has not changed significantly, or at all, really. When you go back to 2000, the bounce that Gore got from Lieberman was about the same, five percent, but in 1992 Clinton got a 16 percent bounce from choosing Gore.

Right after the selection of Edwards, all of the cable media outlets were predicting that Edwards would give a 16-18 point bounce by this point.

The average of the first 6 national polls taken after Edwards was selected was 4.3 percent. The average as of today(8 polls), is 4.9 percent.

The web site I use to check all of the pollsout and their averages is realclearpolitics.com

It is a pretty neutral site, but they printed an article this week ( they print from both liberal and conservative media):

Monday, July 12 2004
EDWARDS BOUNCE SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN A DEAD CAT: You've probably heard the saying, "Even a dead cat will bounce if dropped from high enough." Well, John Edwards is giving the Kerry campaign a bounce, but it sure isn't that big. I suspect both the Dems and the GOP were expecting something a bit larger.

In the six polls taken since Kerry announced his VP choice on Tuesday, Kerry/Edwards has moved ahead of Bush/Cheney by 5.4% in the head-to-head race. Compared to the average of the last 6 polls conducted prior to Kerry's announcement, that represents a net gain of 4.3%.

It's about the same in the three way race. In the five surveys last week that included Nader/Camejo in the mix, Kerry/Edwards is averaging a 2.2% lead over Bush/Cheney. Compare this to the last five polls leading up to Kerry's announcement and you see a net gain of only 3.6%.<[br />
http://realclearpolitics.com/Commentary/blog_7_12_04_0837.html

There is an article that just Gallop just did on historical bounces and Edwards is pretty much on the low end of the bounce scale> Looking at the scakes also seems to indicate that Democrats tend to get bigger bounces out of choosing their running mate and the convention:

http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=12310&pg=1

We will have to see what kind of bounce the convention gets for Kerry.

Overall the relatively small bounce that resulted from the selection of Edwards may indicate a lot less about Edwards and a lot more about the polarization that this campaign is indicating exists in the country. Pretty much everyone has made up their minds as to who they are going to vote for, and those who have not constitute one of the smallest percentages of undecided swing voters available during any campaign in recent presidential election history.

WHich is pretty good for Kerry/Edwards if my premise is correct. For Kerry/Edwards to get this king of bump with so few undecided people left would indicate that the lead that Kerry /Edwards have now is a lead that will not erode iver the next 3 and a half months.

[charlyvi]

10. Thanks

I feel better about it.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

11. A statistically insignificant lead

is not one that is safe from erosion.

It is probably true that 90+% of the electorate have made up their minds. But there are enough undecideds to swing it either way.

[sandnsea]

16. Shit to start with

What they didn't account for is that Kerry was already doing very well as opposed to Clinton. Clinton was down by 20 points in April 1992. No wonder he got such a huge bump at the convention and when he announced Gore. Kerry was already between 45 & 50. I would be stunned if Kerry ever gets 60-70, which is what a 16-18 point bounce would have given him. That whole Edwards bounce thing was dumb to start with. (Which is maybe what you're trying to say, I don't know)

Here's an article, June 1992. Can Clinton Save His Candidacy?

http://www.worldandi.com/public/1992/june/cr6.cfm

[osaMABUSh]

18. Maybe the Edwards bounce was already in the numbers?

Most folks assumed Kerry would pick Edwards so maybe the polling data prior to the selection already had Edwards factored in.

An interesting poll from a couple a months ago showed that K/E was ahead of B/C by over 10% now that he has actually on the ticket it is only 5%????

[spooky3]

20. Good point. JK doesn't need a "bounce"; he needs JE to help get out the

base and others to vote. We need an outstanding turnout this year.