Latest electoral College Breakdowns:

[Nicholas_J]

Kerry has 18 states for 254 electoral votes

13 states strongly for Kerry for 201 EV.

5 States leaning towards Kerry for 50 EV

Bush has 20 states for 183 electoral votes

14 States strongly for Bush for 124 EV

5 States leaning towards Bush for 59 EV

7 states are too close to call for 83 EV

Kerry ahead in Minnesota, Maine, Ohio, Florida, For 61 EV

Bush ahead in Nevada for 5 electoral votes

Kerry and Bush exactly even in Tennessee for that states 11 EV

Six states where no pollin has been done for 21 EV

This leave Kerry sitting on 305 electoral votes. He could lose his lead in either Ohio OR Florida, the two very close states with the largest number of electoral votes and still be winning in the electoral college. All he needs is 17 Electoral votes out of the states too close to call to win the presidency by one electoral vote. Right now, Bush could win every state that has not polled, and take away 2/3rds of the electoral votes from Kerry n the states too close to decide, and Kerry would still beat him in the electoral college.

Things are looking up for Kerry.

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

Projections are another story:

Electoral-vote.com has Kerry winning 322 EV, Bush 205

Hedgehog Report has Kerry winning at 296, Bush Getting 242.

This site uses methods that heavily favor a Bush win scenario, and still cant come up with a Bush win.

Rasmussen has Kerry with 254 EV right now, Bush with 197

Election Projection has Kerry with 327, Bush with 211

Robert Silvey has Kerry with 291, Bush with 247.

All have Florida moving more and more strongly into the solidly Kerry column.

http://www.ospolitics.org/blog/archives/2004/06/24/electoral_.php

Things are looking more and more positive for Kerry/Edwards. No one is projecting a Bush win in he electoral college. I don not think that even an October surprise, even capturing Osama bin Laden, would turn enough around for Bush to give him an electoral college win.

I noted very early on, as early as may, that Kerry was strongly focusing on firming up a win in the electoral college, and focusing less on the popular vote. He is virtually copying the strategy that George Bush folloewd in 2000, going for electoral votes, rather than a popular win. BUt fortinaltely for Kerry, the states that are giging him his electoral votes are also very densely populated, and therefore are very likely to give him a popular vote win.

Not bad for a guy who is called a flip flopper, someone who will not defend America from terrorists like George Bush does, and someone who does not have the family values that Bush is so in touch with.

[pearl]

1. I Like How He Thinks

Thanks for the stats.

[JohnDoe1]

2. Good News

Things like this are good to see.

[Nicholas_J]

3. For the last two months

No, one, not even the websites that are run by rampant Bush supporters, are able to predict a Bush win by using the going trends.

From what I can put togetther I see Kerry winning with comwhere just above or a little below 300 electoral votes, but even if Kerry starts taking a few big hits in some of the larger states that are too close to tell, every indication is that Kerry will win, even if only by less than a handful of electoral votes.

Every week, Florida, a state which repukes have bee saying will go to Bush, is starting to move more and more heavily into the Kerry column. In the last few weeks Florida has moved into Kerry terrirory by more than the margin of error of the polls. Bush has not been ahead of Kerry in Florida for at least 6 weeks, and each week the point spread gets bigger and bigger.

I mean things can go wrong, and sometimes the polls are wrong. But in 2000 most people predicted a Gore win, and the only thing that proved them wrong was really last minute trickery by the Bush people. If you remember all of the things that coservatives did, like the events in Seminole Couty where Bush people were given access to info in the Supervisor of ELections offices that are supposed to be unavaiable to members of either party, and how the republican judges ruled that there was nothing wrong with what happened. In all cases, the polls were proved inaccurate simply by events they had no control over, and that was cheating.

I dont think that it will happen again, and if by some odd chance Bush pulls something, and wins the election,by similar means, I beleive Kerry will not only contest it, but be able to provide proof that what was done was illegal and we could see a possible overturn of an initial Bush win by contesting the result of the votes, and Kerry coming up with the information in time to overturn the election. As Gore didnt. IN the end it has been proven that BUsh did not even win in FLorida. I live in that state andI tell you, the fact that BUsh got the electoral votes for Florida when he actually lost the popular vote here by over 26500 votes has enraged the democrats of this state. For months Democrats were so disheartened that they stopped registering to vote, and the differntial between Democrats and Republicans was lower than 66,000. But since last November, there has been an enourmous amount of democratic registration and the percentage of Democrats over Republicans is now approaching there being ten percent more Democrats registered than Republicans. This is one of the largest differentials in the state of Florida in favor of Democrats in about 40 years. IF you notice, since the early 70's Democrats have been the governor of Florida more often than Republicans. Both Graham and Chiles were great governors, Chiles so much of a democrat that he dies upon hearing of Jeb Bush's win.

I think that it was a mistake not putting up Janet REno against Jeb, as she really had a better chance of beating Bush ,and a really a more biting, and lucid mind than the candidate who did run against Bush. I mean right now I cant even remember his name, which is how much of an impact he made on me. The Republican had a nationally known family name on the FLorida ticket, they needed a nationally known candidate on the demcratic ticket, rather than someone who was unknown to people in some regions of the state. I mean no one in SOuth FLorida knew anything about the Democratic candidate, but all over the State, Reno was known, and to be honest, at least in this stte, liked. But as ususla in Florida, the northern counties in the state wield a lot of power, even though they represent only 40 percent of the population. If you have ever been to Tallahassee, you can drive down enourmous four and six lane highways, that suddenly dead end in some neighborhood in the back of beyond. The nortern regions get tons of appropriations, and they spend it on the wlidest and most useless things. And so they used their power to put up a candidate who was one of their own. Nice guy I understand. Worked for a law firm that I actually worked for in the 80's. but for the life of me, his name has vanishised from my mind. Anyway, it is regional partisanship within the democratic party that frequently causes most of our losses, and Kerry just isnt about to let that happen.