Kerry 292, Bush 246: Federal Review Composite Poll (7/20/04)

[phillybri]

http://www.federalreview.com/compositepoll.htm

THE BOUNCE HITS THE ELECTORAL VOTE
Bush 47.5% – 246 EV | Kerry 49.8% – 292 EV
EV without Toss Up states (under 2% margin): Bush 216| Kerry 250| Toss 72
July 20, 2004

Florida finally slips over into the Kerry column after weeks of hanging out with Bush despite the popular vote swing toward Kerry. But, as predicted last week, the Edwards bounce has arrived in the electoral college, where Kerry now leads 292-246.

You'll also notice a change in the above graphic. Despite the convenience (and now cliché) of referring to "Red States" and "Blue States", I've decided to adopt what I understand is the traditional color coding standard. The incumbent is blue and the challenger is red. That suits me, because I think red suits Kerry better.

But before we get to the numbers, and our eye catching new way of presenting them, let's talk about trends and forecasting. Thanks to the wonderful versatility of Excel and my own spreadsheet OCD, I've run some predictions based on the last 4 months of numbers. Since I've always said that I think this analysis works more for showing trends in the race and not for showing a specific daily snapshot or actual prediction of where things will be in November, I ran a least squares linear regression analysis to forecast the November 2 results. Basically, if the prevailing trends in the race over the last 4 months continue until election day, then this forecast will be accurate. Of course, that's an untrue assumption, isn't it. Dynamics will change. But I thought the results are interesting, especially as everything is swinging back toward Kerry.

[phillybri]

1. Kick

:kick:

[Rowdyboy]

2. I haven't seen this one before

Thanks for the link. Too bad that really interesting, politically relevant stuff like this gets passed over while Nader/Kerry flamefests attract hundreds of replies.

[LoZoccolo]

3. Nader is a factor in this map.

He has a big Wisconsin following, and threatens to spoil Wisconsin.

[yellowcanine]

4. This is bs about switching the red and blue around. "Red suits Kerry

better?" Besides he isn't consistent about it. He has a blue K on West Virginia. What's with that? I put this on par with Republicans insisting on referring the Democratic Party as the "Democrat" Party. Good reason not to even visit his site anymore. Boycott FederalReview! Maybe when he sees his hits going down he will get the message that we don't like "politically correct" color coding.

[featherman]

5. Not sure about the color coding "rule"

Some maps just assign colors to the parties (blue = DEM), others do it either way arbitrarily. This is the first who has mentioned a blue for incumbent, red for challenger "rule". This is obviously a GOP site but the map is quite good, I believe. (There is an error where he meant to assign WV to Bush. I haven't seen anyone question that unfortunate trend recently). I have a couple of quibbles in that NH will probably go Kerry not Bush and that MO, OH, and FL shouldn't be assigned to anyone yet. Essentially the lines are drawn per this map without much wiggle room. Whoever takes two out of three of PA, FL, OH will win it barring some world changing catastrophe. Kerry is leading most reliable polls in PA and FL and some in OH so things are still looking good at this early date.

[Nicholas_J]

6. Every single projection poll

Has Kerry winning the electoral college, even those projections done by people who obviously favor Bush:

A list of people doing projections can be found at:

http://www.ospolitics.org/blog/archives/2004/06/24/electoral_.php


Every single site here has Kerry winning the electoral college, with the very worse case scenario for Kerry is a Kerry win by 30 electoral votes. The most conservative site, with the most pro-Bush owner has Kerry winning by over 50 electoral votes.

Its soon gonna be morning in America, DU kids.