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I find it interesting that my old turf has been trending Dem for the past 12 years, at least in national elections. It's still pretty hardcore Republican at the local level, but I expect that to change if this trend continues. The congressman who represents the bulk of the county is a Repub, Curt Weldon, but that's partially because Repubs have managed to redistrict the more Democratic-leaning parts of the county--along the Philly city line and the Delaware River--into Philly-based safe Democratic districts.
An adjacent congressional district, which is centered around the Main Line, has been a swing district the last decade, though the Dems captured it the last 2 or 3 elections. The congressman who represents it, Joe Hoeffel, is now running for Senate against Arlen Specter.
IIRC, Delaware County went for the Democratic ticket twice in the 60s: for JFK in 1960 and LBJ in 1964. Both were regarded as flukes, JFK's victory being attributed to the county's large Catholic population, and LBJ's due to fear of Goldwater's perceived extremism. After that, however, I believe the county went for Nixon twice, in 68 and 72; Ford in 76; Reagan twice, in 80 and 84; and for Poppy Bush in 88. In 1992 and 1996, though, the county went for Clinton, then went for Gore in 2000.
Now I live in NYC, and I see similar trends in the burbs around the city, especially in Westchester and Nassau counties.
I believe what we're seeing is a realignment of the parties in the suburbs in the Northeast, and probably the Great Lakes and West Coast states as well, especially among women. In part, IMHO, the realignment is a reaction to a previous realignment, when the right-wing Dixiecrats left the Dems and joined the Republicans, thereby strengthening the far right wacko wing of the Repubs and weakening its moderate wing, which was centered in the Northeast, Great Lakes states and West Coast. Those Republican moderates are now trending more toward the Dems in national elections and some state elections--e.g., PA's Rendell, who was always popular in the Philly burbs--but the local Dems are lagging behind.
I'm crossing my fingers and hoping not only for a Kerry win in PA with strong support in the Philly burbs, but also for a Hoeffel win in the Senate race. Yes, Specter, with his Philly ties and his reputation as a Republican moderate, has usually been popular in the suburban counties, but now he's old and he's been whipped by the right wing. Plus, Hoeffel is himself a product of the suburbs.
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