TruthIsAll
National Polling data: Pollingreport.com
State Polling data: Electoral-Vote.com
COMBINED NATIONAL AND STATE PROJECTION
Kerry: 53.25% of two-party vote
Bush: 46.75%
Spread 6.51%
NATIONAL PROJECTION MODEL
National polling data from pollingreport.com includes:
IBD, ABC, NWK, ARG, NBC, CBS, PEW, LAT, ZOGBY, TIME
Kerry 53.59% of two-party vote
Bush 46.41%
Spread 7.18%
STATE ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION MODEL
Most Likely Vote%; Electoral votes
Kerry 52.92% 329
Bush 47.08% 209
Spread 5.84% 120
Kerry wins 974 of 1000 simulation trial runs.
for a 97.4% probability of winning the election.
ELECTORAL VOTE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Data is downloaded to Excel for the forecasting model.
One thousand trials are run in each simulation.
Simulation I: Conservative Case
Allocated 60% of undecided/other votes.
Received 51.93% of the vote.
Kerry won 90.1% of the trials
Average 310 electoral votes.
Maximum 403 electoral votes.
Simulation II: Most Likely Case
Allocated 70% of undecided/other votes.
Received 52.92% of the vote.
Kerry won 97.4% of the trials
Average 329 electoral votes.
Maximum 419 electoral votes.
Simulation III: Optimistic Case
Kerry:
Allocated 80% of undecided/other votes.
Received 53.92% of the vote.
Kerry won 99.4% of the trials
Average 348 electoral votes.
Maximum 424 electoral votes.
LAST THREE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
(in millions of votes)
Dem 138.75 52.60%
Rep 125.03 47.40%
BUSH JOB APPROVAL
The data source is PollingReport.com
2004 Avg Nwk Fox CNN Pew Harris CBS ABC Time NBC AP Zogby
Jan. 54.50 50 58 60 56 na 50 58 54 54 56 49
Feb. 49.67 48 48 51 48 51 50 50 54 na 47 na
Mar. 48.75 48 48 49 46 na 51 50 na 50 48 na
Apr. 48.80 49 50 52 48 48 46 51 49 na 48 47
May 45.20 42 48 47 44 na 41 47 46 47 48 42
June 47.00 na 48 49 48 50 42 47 na 45 48 46
July 47.43 48 na 47 na na 45 na 48 45 50 49
NATIONAL POLL PROJECTION METHODOLOGY
The data source is PollingReport.com
Monthly polling data from:
IBD, ABC, NWK, ARG, NBC, CBS, PEW, LAT, ZOGBY,
TIME
The projection is based on the latest monthly average of the
ten polls,.
adjusted by allocating 70% of undecided/other voters to
Kerry.
10 Poll Average Projection
Kerry Bush Diff Kerry Bush Diff
Jan 42.50 50.17 -11.5 46.48 53.52 -7.03
Feb 48.00 45.43 2.57 52.60 47.40 5.20
Mar 48.13 44.38 3.75 53.38 46.63 6.75
Apr 47.38 44.88 2.50 52.80 47.20 5.60
May 47.11 44.22 2.89 53.18 46.82 6.36
June 47.13 45.00 2.13 52.64 47.36 5.28
July 49.13 44.50 4.63 53.59 46.41 7.18
Kerry National Poll Projection Formula:
10-Poll Avg 49.13
+ allocation 4.46
= Projection: 53.59 % of total vote.
Polling Averages Latest Polls Prob(Kerry Win)
Poll Kerry Bush Diff Kerry Bush 50%alloc70%
CNN 48.8 47.7 1.2 50.0 46.0 72.4% 78.8%
AP 44.3 46.5 -2.3 45.0 49.0 27.2% 41.0%
FOX 42.6 44.8 -2.2 42.0 48.0 17.0% 38.8%
AVG 45.2 46.3 -1.1 45.7 47.7 38.0% 53.8%
IBD 44.0 42.7 1.3 44.0 41.0 69.3% 90.1%
ABC 50.2 45.7 4.5 46.0 46.0 50.0% 67.6%
NWK 49.0 44.6 4.4 51.0 45.0 81.4% 86.1%
ARG 48.7 44.7 4.0 49.0 45.0 72.8% 82.0%
NBC 47.0 45.8 1.3 54.0 43.0 94.7% 95.9%
CBS 47.7 43.5 4.2 49.0 44.0 77.9% 86.7%
PEW 47.6 46.0 1.6 46.0 48.0 38.1% 52.3%
LAT 50.0 45.0 5.0 51.0 44.0 85.4% 90.1%
ZOGBY 46.4 43.6 2.8 46.0 44.0 62.5% 80.4%
TIME 49.3 47.0 2.3 49.0 45.0 72.8% 82.0%
AVG 48.0 44.8 3.1 48.5 44.5 85.9% 95.5%
MoE 2.0%
ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION FORECAST METHODOLOGY
Kerry's vote % is weighted by each state's percentage of the
total vote in the last 3 elections..
Kerry's projected % for each state is based on the latest
state poll, adjusted
by the allocation of undecided/other voters.
The probability of Kerry winning a state is determined by the
current poll spread: Kerry - Bush.
The spread is comapred to the MoE.
The greater the spread, the higher the probability that Kerry
will win the state.
Most Likely Case
Assume 70% Undecided/other to Kerry
Win Prob. Pct EV
Kerry 97.4% 52.92% 329
Bush 2.6% 47.08% 209
State Electoral Vote Simulation: Historical Voting, Kerry
Projection and Win Probability
Note: Dem% is Democratic % of the two-party vote in the last
three pres. elections
Hist% Dem% Kerry Kerry EV Trials runs 1-10 of 1000
Kerry Vote Proj. Prob. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Proj. 52.60% 52.92% Win 346 386 378 341 324 359 328 311 337 282
AL 44.8 45.0% 10.6%
AK 37.6 40.7% 1.0%
AZ 48.8 53.9% 83.5% 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
AR 55.2 50.6% 56.0% 6 6 6 6
CA 57.4 57.2% 96.4% 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55
CO 48.8 49.3% 43.1% 9 9 9 9 9
CT 57.7 62.6% 99.9% 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
DE 56.8 57.1% 96.2% 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
DC 90.3 90.4% 100.0% 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
FL 50.7 53.3% 79.5% 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
GA 47.6 45.9% 15.3% 15 15 15
HI 59.0 60.9% 99.7% 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
ID 35.7 39.0% 0.3%
IL 57.9 60.0% 99.4% 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
IN 44.8 45.9% 15.3% 11
IA 51.8 53.6% 81.6% 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
KS 42.4 41.6% 1.8%
KY 46.7 45.3% 12.0% 8 8
LA 49.2 49.0% 40.1% 9 9 9 9 9 9
ME 57.1 52.3% 71.7% 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
MD 57.8 58.6% 98.4% 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
MA 65.3 66.7% 100.0% 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
MI 54.7 53.0% 77.3% 17 17 17 17 17
MN 55.7 53.0% 77.3% 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
MS 44.3 36.3% 0.0%
MO 52.5 52.1% 70.0% 11 11 11 11 11 11
MT 44.9 42.8% 3.6% 3
NE 37.5 36.5% 0.0%
NV 49.9 51.4% 63.7% 5 5 5 5 5 5
NH 51.7 56.7% 95.3% 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
NJ 56.5 56.6% 95.1% 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
NM 53.0 55.3% 90.7% 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
NY 62.6 65.0% 100.0% 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31
NC 46.6 48.9% 39.2% 15 15
ND 40.8 37.2% 0.1%
OH 50.8 51.1% 60.8% 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
OK 42.8 39.2% 0.3%
OR 53.6 56.2% 93.9% 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
PA 54.2 54.1% 84.7% 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
RI 65.6 64.2% 100.0% 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
SC 44.4 47.5% 26.6% 8
SD 44.5 44.8% 9.7% 3
TN 50.5 50.8% 57.9% 11 11 11 11 11 11
TX 44.3 42.6% 3.2%
UT 33.6 29.7% 0.0%
VT 59.4 60.1% 99.4% 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
VA 47.3 48.5% 35.4% 13 13 13 13 13
WA 55.9 55.1% 89.9% 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
WV 54.0 47.2% 24.2% 5 5 5 5 5
WI 52.7 55.0% 89.4% 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
WY 38.3 30.8% 0.0%
Avg 52.60% 52.92% - 346 386 378 341 324 359 328 311 337 282
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
