I don't expect a big convention bounce (if any) in the polls

[fujiyama]

Kerry may get 2-3 points, but I'm not exoecting a big convention bounce. It just may be my pessimistic nature, but there are several reasons why I don't see it happening.

First, the number of undecideds is small and the electorate is polarized. There might be some 5% that is undecided at this point.

Second, Kerry won't be allowed to spend any money. Meanwhile Bush will be running nasty attack ads all over. Kerry won't be able to respond very easilly.

Third, there is reduced media coverage of the conventions. I've heard the networks aren't giving it much time.

So, this may partly be just to avert any feeling of dissapointment I have later, but I'm not seeing a huge bounce happen. At first I was slightly dissapointed the Edwards bounce wasn't higher but eventually it made sense. Still there was a bounce, and I think that whatever lead in the polls (at least nationally) is around the margin by which Kerry will win (by around 2% or so)

[splatbass]

1. Even if there isn't a bounce

I would expect some of the swing voters who are leaning toward Kerry, but waiting to learn more about him, to become more solid for him.

[Nicholas_J]

2. Kerry will be able to spend money

But his limit is to the 75 million that is limited once he is nominated.

However, the AFL/CIO can spend tons of money attacking Bush, as can Moveon.Org. They cannot do pro Kerry stuff, but they certainly can do anti-Bush stuff.


My thoughts about the lack of bounce after Edwards is that there is simply almost nothing left to bounce. I think that the pollsters have vastly overestimated the number of undecided left, and that what we are seeing now is what the end result will be. The nation is very polarized and most people have made their minds up already, there will be little change, whiich places a great deal in Kerry's favor.

There simply are very few Republicans who will turn over to vote Democrats, and just as Few Democrats who will turn over and vote Republican and very, very few independents and undecided people left to have enough of an effect on the polls.

[Dookus]

3. umm...

close 90 million in attack ads have already been run with no detriment to Kerry.

[calico1]

10. Good point.

BushCo has spend millions in attack ads against Kerry. You would think this would have put him comfortably ahead, not only because of the ads but also because he is the incumbent President. Instead he is at best even in the polls. Instead of looking at the fact that Kerry has not pulled way ahead, we should be instead looking at how with millions of dollars spent in ads, numerous people bashing Kerry on radio, TV, etc. they still can't pull ahead...and this is a sitting President. This is not good news for Bush.

[Rowdyboy]

4. 2-5% at best

and the media will call it a disaster for Kerry, ignoring the fact that a phenomenally high % of Democratic voters have ALREADY coalesced behind Kerry.

[2Design]

5. I expect a big bounce.......

not to worry about the negative ads...people are so sick of them....

moveon.org has great ads.....and other groups and movies and films and stars....we have lots of people working for our freedom....

The wholesome Twins....now that has a rythmn to it.....sounds like some other twins...

this is such a great team......we have so much going for us.....they have heart and soul down to their toes and people can see the positive energy coming from them.....

not like cheney and bush....they are so dark.....their energy is very dark and evil.....

the light is what people will be drawn to...and kerry and edwards and families and wives......are breath of fresh air and light.....

and the rest can spin and spin and spin.....but the brightness is what they will be drawn to.....

[TruthIsAll]

6. A 2% bounce moves Kerry to a projected 55% landslide..

				
	10 Poll Average		Projection	
	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	Kerry	Bush 	Diff
Jan 	42.50	50.17	-11.5	46.48	53.52	-7.03
Feb	48.00	45.43	2.57	52.60	47.40	5.20
Mar	48.13	44.38	3.75	53.38	46.63	6.75
Apr	47.38	44.88	2.50	52.80	47.20	5.60
May	47.11	44.22	2.89	53.18	46.82	6.36
June	47.13	45.00	2.13	52.64	47.36	5.28
July	48.50	44.10	4.40	53.68	46.32	7.36
						
						
Kerry National Poll Projection Formula:						
10-Poll Avg 	48.50					
+ allocation	5.18					
= Projection:	53.68	% of total vote.				
						
								
	Polling Data 6moAvg  	Latest Polls    Prob (Kerry Win)	
Poll	Kerry	Bush 	Diff		Kerry	Bush 	50%-alloc -70%	
								
CNN	48.8	47.7	1.2		50.0	46.0	72.4%	78.8%
AP	44.3	46.5	-2.3		45.0	49.0	27.2%	41.0%
FOX	42.6	44.8	-2.2		42.0	48.0	17.0%	38.8%
								
AVG	45.2	46.3	-1.1		45.7	47.7	38.0%	53.8%
								
								
IBD	43.2	42.5	0.7		44.0	41.0	69.3%	90.1%
ABC	50.2	45.7	4.5		46.0	46.0	50.0%	67.6%
NWK	49.0	44.6	4.4		51.0	45.0	81.4%	86.1%
ARG	48.7	44.7	4.0		49.0	45.0	72.8%	82.0%
NBC	47.0	45.8	1.3		54.0	43.0	94.7%	95.9%
CBS	47.7	43.5	4.2		49.0	44.0	77.9%	86.7%
PEW	47.3	45.7	1.7		46.0	48.0	38.1%	52.3%
LAT	50.0	45.0	5.0		51.0	44.0	85.4%	90.1%
ZOGBY	46.4	43.6	2.8		46.0	44.0	62.5%	80.4%
TIME	49.3	47.0	2.3		49.0	45.0	72.8%	82.0%
								
AVG	47.9	44.8	3.1		48.5	44.5	85.9%	95.5%
							MoE	2.0%
								
								
				

[The_Casual_Observer]

7. Awesome dear TruthIsAll awesome

[zulchzulu]

8. I bet there will be a 5-10% bounce a week after the convention

Of course it depends on what happens and if there are any planted "Berger-type" leaks, but I feel people will get their first real glimpse of Kerry and Edwards and decide that they would be a refreshing change.

Additionally, I see no real bounce in the Chimp's numbers after their convention.

What I'm waiting for are the debates. Or the lack of them. Kerry can call Bush a coward for not wanting to debate.

And if I were Kerry, I'd even use the terms "AWOL" or "not willing to serve" or "too cowardly to admit his weaknesses" if and when Bush wants to not debate or come to terms with debate dates his campaign has already been delivered.

And unlike Gore vs. Bush, Kerry will clean his stupid little clock.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. I Read The DNC Will Spend $63,000,000.000 In Aug...

And don't forget the 527s...

[WI_DEM]

11. after our convention Kerry will be up by ten points

in most polls in a couple of weeks it will be down to about half of that and then after the GOP convention expect Bush to be a couple of points ahead but then it will settle back down to a neck and neck race until the last weekend when the dam will break against Bush and Kerry will win by five or more points.

[IronLionZion]

12. Nobody cares in August

People go on vacation and worry about summer stuff. Bush's attack ads will be a waste of money since he's been doing it all along while Kerry took the positive route. Bush will opt-in for federal funding when he accepts the nomination in September then the field will be as it is now.

I'm seeing a bounce and then a steady lead for Kerry right throught to the election.

Rove probably has some tricks up his sleeve but so does Cahill. It will be a very interesting election.