What Senate seats are seriously in play?

[mrboba1]

And is there a good shot at picking up a net gain of 2 seats?
Illinois looks very good, and I'm sure we will keep Edwards' seat.
Are we in danger of losing one we have now (Ga? - even though it was Zell's)

Any other possible/probable gains?

[SaveElmer]

1. Georgia is gone

Could pick up Oklahoma and Alaska...

North Carolina looks good now...but it is a pretty Republican state so I wouldn't count on that one yet

Also, South Carolina is going to be tough to hold on to

[mrboba1]

2. NC is only pretty repub

for President.
The majority of the state is registered Democrat, and nearly all the statewide offices are being held by Democrats.
Bowles will not lose...

[Soopercali]

6. Pennsylvania...

Hoeffel vs. Specter is competitive.

[fujiyama]

19. I saw polls

with Hoeffel trailing by quite a bit (by over 10%). I'm not writing the race off, but it seems like a longshot.

[theboss]

21. I doubt that . . . .

Specter's threat always comes from within his Party. He appeals to Democrats in PA.

[Hippo_Tron]

32. The GOP base might vote for Hoeffel to unseat Specter

They don't want him to chair the judiciary committee.

[Wabbajack]

36. They'd rather have Pat Leahy Chair it?

I doubt it.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

23. How often does Zell vote with the Dems?

This doesn't seem like much of a loss...

[Hippo_Tron]

33. In the end I think that he does more harm than good

His Caucus vote is useful since the senate has been so close in recent years but he also actively supports Republicans and his support for their legislation makes it look "bipartisan". If the prospects of senate control were very close and Kerry was behind several points and there was assurance that Zell would caucus with the democrats, I'd want him to run for re-election simply so that we could control the judiciary committee and keep Bush's fascists off of the supreme court. But since that is likely not the case, I'm glad that he will be gone.

[calico1]

3. There will be a special election

in MA assuming Kerry wins. I don't know who the Dems will pick to run though I heard it might be Joe Kennedy. I guess it depends on who the candidate is but hopefully we will be able to hold on to that seat.

[I Lean Left]

26. Former Gov Cellucci is positioning himself

Recently resigned as ambassador to Canada. Is coming back home to line up some endorsements and get some organization in place.

Probably the strongest the republicans can offer in this state for a Senate race.

Meanwhile the entire Mass. house delegation is mulling a run.

[JohnKleeb]

29. Ive heard Marty Meehan and Barney Frank named

I'd prefer Frank but either would be good.

[dolstein]

4. Illinois is a sure Dem pick-up, Georgia is a near-sure GOP pickup

The other races that are expected to be close are in Alaska, Oklahoma, Colorado, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina and Lousiana. Oklahoma and Colorado are GOP seats.

[Hippo_Tron]

31. Bush is 49% approval rating in Georgia from what I last heard

I'd count the South Carolina seat out before I'd count the Georgia one out.

[RoyGBiv]

5. Eight Seats

There are eight seats that are essentially toss-ups, or were as of recent polls. These are Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Oklahoma South Carolina, and South Dakota. Three of these are currently Republican held seats.

So, we could conceivably pick up seats in Alaska, Colorado, and Oklahoma. If we also take the remaining seats, this would give Democrats control with a 51 to 48 margin, with one Independent who tends to vote with the Dems.


OnEdit: I forgot about Illinois.

[mrboba1]

10. so we really need

7 of these 8 to gain control - unless the below-mentioned coattail effect happens.

I could see us taking AK and CO and losing SC and holding the rest.

So that would be 49-50 D-R with Jeffords caucusing with the Dems. So tiebreaker goes to Edwards and we control the Senate.

I could go for that (but I also wouldn't mind seeing Spectre out either!)

[RoyGBiv]

11. Pretty Much...

I am expecting some surprises. Certain races that were leaning toward Republicans have gotten closer.

On the other side of things, I'm becoming less confident about Oklahoma's chances to take the Senate seat for the Dems. One of the challengers in the primary who is behind by something like 50 points in the polls, has taken up a late slash and attack assault on the front-runner, painting him as a Zell Miller type of Democrat. This challenger is actually the one I supported early, because he's the only real progressive running, but this is too-little, too-late, and is only serving to split what little unity there is among OK Democrats. Meanwhile, the Republicans look to be sending Tom Coburn out as their candidate. He has a popular, folksy appeal. He also happens to be two shakes this side of being a Nazi. He's made such suggestions as indicating the need to apply the death penalty to doctors who perform abortions.

Head to head polls against these two front-runners have moved slowly toward the Republican. Prior to Coburn's entry into the race, the presumed nominee for the Repubs was Kirk Humphreys, a former OKC mayor who made a lot of enemies and who polled much worse against Carson, the likely Dem candidate.

It's still a toss-up, but leaning more to the Repubs than the Dems.

Anyway, I'm hoping for coat-tails.

[Gildor Inglorion]

7. Louisiana?

I don't know any specifics, but Breaux chose not to run again. I'm afraid we're going to lose all five southern seats currently held by Democrats: Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Louisiana, and Florida.

[NewJerseyDem]

12. I doubt we will lose all of them

Georgia is pretty much lost.

North Carolina has shown that Democrat Erskine Bowles is leading Republican Richard Burr. Bowles is probably more well known than Burr so the race will tighten. However, I would say that Bowles is the slight favorite because he is a moderate Democrat and appears in a strong position.

South Carolina is most likely going to be lost but it isn't certain. The Democratic nominee is Inez Tenenbaum, the twice statewide elected Superintedent of Schools and the Republican nominee is Jim DeMint, a 3 term congressman. The polls already have shown DeMint leading but Tenenbaum should be a strong campaigner. However, SC is very conservative and she will be attacked for her support of abortion rights and her endorsement from EMILY's List. DeMint is militantly pro-free trade so that could hurt him but it rarely results in a defeat in elections in the Carolinas.

Florida is really too early to predict anything. The Democrats have 3 potential nominees but it appears that former Education Commissioner Betty Castor will win the primary. She will likely face either former Bush HUD secretary Mel Martinez or former congressman Bill McCollum. Martinez would be a much stronger candidate but McCollum is leading in the polls and would be much easier to beat.

Louisiana should stay in Democratic hands. There is one Republican, Congressman David Vitter. There are 3 Democrats but it is likely that either Congressman Chris John or State Treasurer John Kennedy will face Vitter in the runoff. John would likely defeat Vitter because John is quite conservative while the more liberal Kennedy would have a harder time but it would be close. LA has not had a Republican senator since Reconstruction and I doubt this election will change that.

[Thrill]

18. Bowles will win

we'll keep that one

[quaoar]

8. I still remember 1980

When Democratic Senate losses were far greater than anyone ever anticipated. Reagan swept a lot of Republicans into office along with him.

If turnout is high enough this year, that could happen again.

And don't discount the possibility of some surprises. Like Tom DeLay getting beat. Remember what happened to Tom Foley in Washington?

[mrboba1]

9. ooooh - that would be heaven!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Tom Foley Didn't Get To Gerrymander His District.......

With gerrymandered districts House seats are really sinecures

[askew]

34. But DeLay added more Democratic areas

to his district, in order to make the other districts more Republican. When the districts were gerrymandered, DeLay thought he'd be strong enough to still win with additional Democratic areas. So, there is a chance, DeLay could lose.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

24. This is exactly why, if Kerry's lead opens up,

he should start campaigning in red states. To give the Dems there a chance of riding his coattails. Even if he doesn't win a state, just being there will increase the Dem turnout.

[neoSattva]

13. Colorado

I'm fairly confident that Colorado will elect Ken Salazar to replace Ben Nighthorse Cambell (the only pony tailed, Harley riding Republican that I can think of). Salazar has to win the Dem primary against Mike Miles, but he's a moderate and very popular statewide. As the current Atty General, he's the only one running who has already won a statewide election. Mike Miles has some great ideas and a very interesting background (West Point, State Dept, and now a teacher), but he's not well known. The Republican primary is between Bob Schaffer & Pete Coors (yes the beer guy). Schaffer is from the fundamentalist wing of the gop. Coors is from the wealthy wing.

[Zynx]

16. Salazar will win.

Neither Shaffer or Coors look that strong.

[newyawker99]

20. Hi NoDubya!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[neoSattva]

22. Thanks!

This seems like a great place ~ Lots going on with reasonable & thoughtful people.:hi:

[WI_DEM]

15. Alaska

Knowles has at least an even chance--and most polls have showed him ahead. This would be a pick up for us.

[Thrill]

17. We'll keep ARK and LA

in my opinion. The one suprise that we may keep is the SC seat with Inez Tennebaum. Bowles has to have a meltdown to lose. And I think Salazaar should win.

[LSdemocrat]

25. Don't forget about Missouri

This is a race that will get closer as Farmer builds up name recognition. Bond has never been very strong, and in a March poll was within 10 points of Bond, with significantly less name recognition:

http://www.bsl.archpundit.com/archives/008333.html

[JNelson6563]

27. FYI Michigan safe til 06

Stabenow is up for re-election in '06 and Levin in '08. (Much specualtion Levin won't run again)

Julie

[Moloch]

28. Louisiana

John Breaux is retiring and a particularly disgusting repug named David Vitter is in the lead to replace him........

[JCMach1]

30. the open FL seat will be a tossup

a little dust will settle once there are some actual nominees... there are good primary contests on both sides.

[featherman]

35. Net gain of one would not surprise me

I like:
AK, IL and CO to go from GOP to DEM
GA and SC to go from DEM to GOP
DEMS to hold seats in NC, FL, LA
GOP to hold PA and OK