Some new poll numbers

[Tony_FLADEM]

Missouri: Kerry 46%, Bush 44% (Kansas City Star)
Florida: Kerry 46%, Bush 46% (Sayfie)
Florida: Bush 48%, Kerry 46% (Mason-Dixon)
Ohio: Bush 48%, Kerry 43%(Strategic Vision)

LA Times:

Florida: Bush 45%, Kerry 44%, Nader 2%
Pennsylvania: Kerry 48%, Bush 38%, Nader 5%


<http://politicalwire.com/archives/2004/07/22/new_polls.html>

[goddess40]

1. Sad it should be 99% to 1%

as that is the ratio of people the the repub's actually cater to

[mhollis]

2. Margin for error?

I don't know the Mason-Dixon but I wonder if the difference between them and Sayfie is in the question asked.

But it looks like a dead heat, the margin for error in most polls being around plus or minus 3.5 points. Where I work, we've been looking at the same thing.

The issue here is traction and it doesn't look like Kerry's getting any. Meanwhile, Bush-Cheny looks like it'd like a limited-slip differential, though they have been successfully defining their opponents as non-credible.

Frankly, what I think is more important is in Congressional elections. A Republican President may be successfully stymied by a Democratic Congress and our current one is basically hanging on by fingernails in the Senate.

One problem we're creating on a national level is a big blank in the voter's mind about these Congressional elections, with the exception of Illinois, which became interesting for a moment with a sex scandal (quite frankly, I think Jeri Ryan is a sex club and I'm willing to be assimilated).

Having Obama lead off as keynote speaker at the DNC may be risky though as the memory of the refusal of all Democratic Senators to co-sign the African-American Congressional Caucus' petition to question the validity of the Electoral College vote remains strong today. Second, there is an assumption here that Obama will win easily. One should never assume in an election. Lastly, Obama does not fit the typical Democratic African-American niche. His father was African and an immigrant to our country. Having known Africans here, I have noticed that they do not always mix well with the African-American community.

I am looking forward to a lot of "hiding" of the majority of deligates at the RNC, the Christian Coalition, the extreme right, etc. Look for a "Republican Rainbow Coalition" on the stage for yet another "fool the eye" so we can "fool the voter" and "rule the fools." Also listen for lots of "code words" like "Family Values," which means preach intolerance towards homosexuality, non-Christians and those who believe that a woman's right to privacy should not include her being able to use birth control or obtain an abortion.

I don't see a major role on the speaker platform from Cheny, save to reassure the far right that their agendas are at the heart of the Republicans consideration, right after big business.