2004 is not a lock for Bush

[Atman]

How it all could play out. Thanks to Timbuk3 for the analysis.

Check out the election map here. Leave Florida in the Republican column. Change NV to Democratic. NV is REALLY pissed off about Yucca Mountain. If you don't believe me, look up what the Mayor of Vegas has done and is doing to resist it. NV could easily go Democratic in 2004. Bush won NV by only 3% in 2000.

Bush won LA by 8% in 2004. Since then, the state has been dominated by Democrats winning elections, and in at least one of them Bush had a horse in the race. The Democrat won, anyway. Change LA, and see what you get.

Bush won NH by 1%. What do you think the "northeastern liberals" think of Mr. Bush, by now? Maybe you should swich NH to Democrat, too.

How about Ohio? Remember the Steel tariffs? Basically, Bush faced the choice of losing Florida or OH over that on. He chose Florida. Ohio could go Dem, in 2004.

MO and TN? Around 3.5% to Bush. I don't know about TN, but I have freinds in MO who assure me that Bush won't carry that state. See what happens if he doesn't.

OK, but what about the states that Gore just squeaked out?

New Mexico and Iowa? Both to Gore, both less than 1%. Minnesota went to Bush by 2%. I have friends and relatives in MN. These states are far from a lock, for Bush. One big issue is guns, in Iowa. Dean has that one covered. He's endorsed by the NRA. Clark wouldn't have any problem there, either.

Gore won Wisconsin by less than 1%. Wisconsin has been hit HARD by unemployment. Maybe you might want to leave that state in the Dem column, too.

I'm not ready to concede Florida, but I'm not so sure we need it.

No primaries have been held, yet. Dean is not the party's nominee, yet. (And for the record, I will vote for ANY Democrat before I'll vote for Bush. And I put my money where my mouth is. I'll be writing checks, and volunteering my time, starting this month.) Dean trails Bush in a national poll by 5%.http://www.pollingreport.com/

2004 is not a lock for Bush.

[Goldom]

1. And yet...

I don't think there's any question that any Dem candidate will beat bush in 2004. But, they did in 2000 too, and he's in the white house anyway...

[Cat Atomic]

2. Interesting. Which states have the most

elctronic voting machines? I wonder how that stacks up with your list there.

[BobbyJay]

3. Depends on who the nominee is.

[tedoll78]

4. Guns guns guns..

That's one reason I'm comforted by the prospect of a Dean nomination. He will take large amounts of pressure on his campaign. The NRA was breathing down Gore's neck for all of Election 2000. It made pretty much all of the midwest too close for comfort, and it probably cost Gore TN and WV.

For Dean to win, I think he needs to grab the Gore states and go after Ohio big-time, all while faking a grand effort in select southern states to throw Bush off. Gore lost Ohio in 2000 by 4%, and that's without any TV advertising for the last 3 weeks of the campaign. Nader got 2% there, and the NRA again was a factor. Add-in steel tariffs and job losses, and we have a recipe for victory there next year. Yup.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

5. Yes it is.

He will lose again.

[MidwestMomma]

6. I hope you are right

I want to see the W get his ass chomped on election night.}(