swingstateproject.com - race tightens up

[swag]

www.swingstateproject.com


National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.27 (53.27)
Bush: 47.73 (46.73)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Projection
Kerry: 322, 227 solid (237, 232)
Bush: 216, 133 solid (211, 118)
States Changing Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NH and OH
States Projected By Less than 3 points: AR, NV, NC and TN for Bush (37); FL, MO and OH for Kerry (58)

What a difference a day makes. From a borderline Kerry blowout to a race that is only slightly lean Kerry, this was the largest single day shift in the history of the GECC. NV switched back to Bush, Georgia became solid Bush, Florida slipped under the 3.0 line for Kerry, while AZ and LA moved past it for Bush. IF these were the numbers on election day, I would feel good, but nervous. If yesterday's numbers were the election day projection, I wouldn't feel nervous at all. This projection has a longshot scenario for Kerry to lose: if every single close state goes for Bush, than Bush would take it 274-264.

On the plus side, a shift like this does allow more room for a convention bounce. I'm going away for the weekend, but I should be able to offer another projeciton on Sunday night.

. . .

[gristy]

1. What is the margin of error?

If the swing is less than the margin of error, this "swing" isn't a change at all. It's noise.

[lancdem]

2. The latest Arizona poll has Kerry ahead by 1

I'm not sure why he's giving it to Bush. BTW, it sounds like yesterday's projections were unrealistic. A slightly lean Kerry projection makes more sense at the moment. For Kerry to have a huge electoral lead, he'd need to be ahead in the horse race by 8-10 points, at least. Overall, he's in a good shape, because he appears to have much of his blue states locked up.

[Fed Up]

3. this is like trying to predict an outcome on the roulette wheel.

I like polls as much as the next guy, but sometimes I just find myself sighing at the futility of it all. (as per who will really win.)

Surprises will definitely play out. Surprises that we can't envision at this point. Earthquake on election day, hurricanes, bad storms keeping voters away, etc. etc. some scandal coming out in October. Gaffes. Economic numbers. No one predicted that the 2000 election would be so gooey. For 04 I'm batting down the hatch.

Anything can happen.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

4. This 'analysis' is moronic.

What a difference a day makes


You can stop reading right there. The writer either doesn't understand polling, or is being disingenuous.