Kerry's Chances In New Hampshire

[Arugula Latte]

It seems that JK has a very good chance to take N.H. Whaddya all think?

Also, has a Democrat presidential candidate ever won the state in recent history?

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

1. You may recall the results of the GOP primary in NH...

Sure, Shrub came in first, but KERRY came in second, with around 3,000 write-in votes, which is more than the margin by which Shrub won the state in 2000.

[tritsofme]

7. You may also recall that a lot of Democrats switched

switched their registration to vote for McCain in 2000 and forgot about it.

That being said, I'd put Kerry's chances around 50/50. Polls show the race neck and neck.

[lancdem]

2. He has an excellent chance

Clinton won N.H. twice.

[Fed Up]

3. i saw a new poll, JK is ahead in NH. n/t

[Thrill]

4. NH is in New England

his backyard. He should win it

[Nicholas_J]

5. Well the two latest polls:

Kerry and Bush Remain Tied Among Likely Voters in New Hampshire

John Kerry and George W. Bush remain tied among likely voters in New Hampshire according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 47% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 45% say they would vote for Bush. A total of 3% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 5% of likely voters are undecided.

In a race between just Bush and Kerry, Kerry is at 48% and Bush is at 46%.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nh/


University of New Hampshire:

Kerry 47, Bush 43, Nader 4

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/elect72204.pdf


So things look good for Kerry in NH

[GreenPartyVoter]

6. Traditionally it goes red, but I think there is a chance it will go

blue in November.

[Mr_Spock]

8. I hope that Kerry can win here. Lots of stupid rednecks up here though

:eyes:

[graywarrior]

9. F911 is being shown in republican Carroll County

That ought to piss off a lot of stupid white men.

[Kathy in Cambridge]

13. I'm inclined to agree with you-just finished a 2-month stint up there

I worked at a software company up there and boy, I have never run into more racist, Fox News watching people in my life. NH is the Alabama of New England (my apologies to all enlightened Alabamans).

[quaoar]

21. From Alabama

We accept your apology.

[Redneck Socialist]

15. Some of us aren't all that stupid though n/t

[FightinNewDem]

10. The strongest link?

Clinton won it in '92 and '96, Carter came close in '76.

Today's UNH poll shows Kerry leading by 5 points.

My biggest fear is the weakness of the rest of the ticket. John Lynch and Paul McEachern both have the potential to run a strong race against Benson, but after that, it gets ugly.

Granny D is a novelty item, and Gregg will roll over her.

In the 1st CD, Bob Bruce is a decent, thoughtful man, but is a political newcomer without a lot of financial resources. His primary opponent, Justin Nadeau, has money and the support of the hacks like Lou D'Allesandro, but he is, to be blunt, dumber than a rotten turnip. He is glib, but numbingly arrogant and more than a bit sleazy.

In the 2nd district, Paul Hodes is "mostly harmless". He won't win, won't embarrass the ticket. Sort of a Barney Brannen, version 2.0

[maxanne]

19. Lynch will win

he's against an income tax. Paul McEachern (I still have my McEachern for gov button from 1988) is too honest. The Democrats in NH have brainwashed themseleves into thinking that letting Republicans determine the agenda is some kind of victory.

Bob Bruce is a great guy and a good candidate - but a mind numbingly boring speaker. He comes across as what he is - an engineer. It's too bad, because I think he's a better candidate than Nadeau.

Say what you will about Granny D - she stepped up to the plate when Cohen dropped out - so that Gregg wouldn't run unopposed. I didn't see anyone else volunteering.

Paul Hodes is a "Shaheen" Dem - which would mean a moderate Republican in another state. I was sorry to see my old anti-nuke buddy Roy Morrison drop out of the 2nd district race.

The NH state Democratic Party needs to be reorganized, in a serious way. All the toadies who currently run things should be removed. If we don't start paying attention and nurturing candidates in every single part of the state - then we're missing out on the big ticket candidates of the future. I'm mentoring a guy in Coos County who would be a great, great US Congressperson in the future. But, who gives a shit about Coos County?

[fujiyama]

11. NH is one of two states

it can be argued that Nader tipped the vote to Bush.

I forgot what Gore lost it by but it was less than 2% I think...I think Kerry will win it this time. He has a strong chance in sweeping the entire northeast. He's had a small lead in most polls, but it's the one of two states in the northeast that may be in play.

[Killarney]

12. NH is a little slice of the South in New England

Lots of pick-up trucks and people who love their guns. Lots of rural area (when you get to Northern NH). Bush won in 2000 (but with no Nader, Gore might have won). So far polls show neck in neck, but one latest poll gave Kerry 2 or 3 points (I forget which). I was just up there and saw a few Kerry bumperstickers, one Bush bumpersticker, and one Bush yard sign. I also saw F911 showing at a small theater that's only showing about 6 movies, so that's good. I think Kerry has a great chance in NH this year. I think he'll win it. He would definitely win it if there were no Nader. If there were no Nader, Kerry would be outside the margin of error in the latest poll. Hopefully the NH Nader voters in 2000 learned from their mistake.

[maxanne]

14. oh, boy

so all us northern New Hamsphire folks are dumb hicks with guns in our trucks, eh?

Last night, I heard a former state senator (who is also a former Republican) telling someone, "Anyone who has a conscience will not be able to vote Republican in this election." He was standing outside the theater, after seeing F/911. He told me he's going to challenge all his conservative buddies to go see it.

Last week was our county Democratic fundraiser. It's a northern rural county. The dinner was sold out. Our keynote speaker was Howard Dean. I saw a lot of folks I've never seen at a party dinnner before - and plenty of independants.

There are plenty of Kerry supporters here - and there are also plenty of people who recognize that ABB isn't going to fix what needs fixing. Bush is a symptom - not the disease.

[graywarrior]

16. And we can thanks folks like you Max

You've been fighting the fight for as long as I can remember in Carroll County. U R MY HERO.

[maxanne]

23. thanks graywarrior!

You are sadly missed in Carroll County. I hope Florida appreciates your special blend of brains and lunacy.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

17. Clinton won NH both times.

2000 results:

Bush: 48.07%
Gore: 46.80%
Nader: 3.90%

[bringbackfdr]

18. Kerry will win NH

Take it to the bank. As a proud liberal native of NH, I've been watching politics here since standing in front of the Exeter Town Hall with a McGovern sign on election day 1972. The only reason the Republicans do so well here in races for legislature, governor, US Senate and Congress is that the Democratic party here is woeful in terms of money, organization and leadership.
Kerry will blister Bush in the southern tier of the state, where most of the Massachusetts transplants reside.

[newyawker99]

20. Hi bringbackfdr!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[calico1]

22. Thanks, that makes me feel better.

Although NH seems to be the most "Conservative" of the New England States. I do hope they vote for Kerry this time.


Welcome to DU!

:hi:

[Lefty48197]

24. Hate to say it, but NH's electoral votes are almost meaningless this year.

Too bad, because it looks like they're really taking a shine to Kerry. In most of the "tight electoral race" scenarios, NH's four electoral votes are meaningless. They only come into play, if we Democrats lose a state or two that we are really depending on, like OR, WI, IA, VT, or ME. Then NH's votes could help put us over the top, but it would take a longshot sweep of some other battleground states, to even give us a shot after losing one of those states.