Some New Poll Data:

[Nicholas_J]

LA Times: Kerry 46, Bush 44, Nader 3

July 23, 2004 E-mail story Print


THE TIMES POLL
Bush, Kerry Neck and Neck in Survey
The Democrat's lead is minor despite majority's unhappiness with the country's direction.


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Los Angeles Times Poll Excerpts
July 23, 2004
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Pre-Democratic convention 2004
July 23, 2004


July 23, 2004
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Bush or Kerry? What the polls say now, and an interactive map to test your own scenarios.


Bush, Kerry Neck and Neck in Survey

Going to War Not Worth It, More Voters Say

Voters Shift in Favor of Kerry

By Ronald Brownstein, Times Staff Writer


WASHINGTON — Despite dissatisfaction with the country's direction and the administration's principal policies, the presidential race remains a virtual dead heat as the Democratic convention approaches, a Times poll has found.

Sen. John F. Kerry, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, leads President Bush by 2 percentage points among registered voters nationwide, with or without liberal independent candidate Ralph Nader included in the matchup. That's an advantage within the poll's margin of error, and a smaller lead than Kerry enjoyed in a Times survey last month.

The survey also asked questions measuring interest in the race, to assess which voters were most likely to turn out this fall. Among the likely voters, Bush and Kerry are tied, with or without Nader in the equation.

But other poll findings show narrow — and in some instances broad — majorities unhappy with Bush's direction, a threatening trend for an incumbent.

http://www.latimes.com/news/custom/timespoll/la-na-poll23jul23,1,3447280.story?coll=la-home-headlines

NEVADA:

Poll | Date Sample MoE Bush Kerry Nader Spread 2000 Vote
SUSA | 7/20-7/22 801 L 3.5 45 49 - Kerry +4 Bush +4

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/nv_polls.html

MICHIGAN:


July 19, 2004
Slight Lead For Kerry/Edwards In Michigan



(CPOD) Jul. 19, 2004 – The Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards holds a slight advantage in the state of Michigan, according to a poll by Strategic Vision. 46 per cent of respondents would vote for the Democrats in the 2004 United States presidential election, while 44 per cent would support Republican incumbents George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.

Independent candidate Ralph Nader and running mate Peter Camejo garner the support of one per cent of respondents, while nine per cent remain undecided. The election is scheduled for Nov. 2.

Democrat Al Gore won the state’s 18 electoral votes in 2000, with 51 per cent of the vote. The last Republican to carry Michigan was George H. Bush in 1988.

http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3463


CALIFORNIA:

Poll | Date Sample MoE Bush Kerry Nader Spread 2000 Vote
PPIC | 6/30-7/14 1,378 L 2.7 38 49 5 Kerry +11 Gore +11

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/S_704MBS.pdf

[eaprez]

1. To be expected....

..Bush is the incumbant. People don't know Kerry. Kerry is running neck and neck despite the Bush camp spending nearly a million dollars in negative advertising against him. That's pretty darn good.

[lancdem]

2. And Charlie Cook maintains that the race isn't really even

because undecideds go overwhelmingly for the challenger.

[artemisia]

3. ap claiming bush leads in electoral votes

asspress is pushing an article by ron fournier claiming that bush leads in electoral vote polling to date. http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/C/CVN_ROAD_TO_270?SITE=PAWES&SECTION=HOME

please send them an email ([e-mail])urging them to recant.

here's the email i sent them in response:

ron fournier's article that bush leads in electoral vote projection is incorrect and irresponsible. he must have pulled these numbers out of his hat, since every respected electoral college projection website on the net shows kerry in the lead on electoral votes:

Hedgehog report: kerry over bush 315-223
http://www.davidwissing.com/bushkerrystate2004.php
note: run by republican activist david wissing

rasmussen: Kerry with a 227-208 lead over bush http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Electoral%20College%20Projection.htm
note: also run by a gop activist

http://electionprojection.com shows kerry over bush 327-211
and a popular vote lead by kerry of 51.5% to 46.7%

http://electoral-vote.com shows kerry over bush 310-217

Robert Silvey: Kerry 291, bush 247
http://www.robertsilvey.com/notes/2004/07/electoral_colle_3.html

fournier offers no direct attribution for his claim that bush leads in electoral votes at this time. not surprising since his claim is in contradiction to every available projection that is based on actual state by state poll numbers. instead, he states that his claim is based on "Associated Press analysis of state polls as well as interviews with strategists across the country." whoever did that ap analysis must have been on acid, because the state polls are absolutely clear that kerry leads bush in electoral vote polling at this time.

the ap needs to immediately correct fournier's outright falsehood of a bush lead in electoral votes.

sincerely,
artemisia

[MissouriTeacher]

4. Yeah, I read that AP story as well.

I was hoping they'd give some evidence for their claim, but there was nothing.

A bunch of B.S. that can only damage the voters' perception of Kerry as a winner.

[Fed Up]

5. Yeah that AP (AOL NEWS) Fournier article was a gagger.

Just another whore for Bush, trying to make the race sound closer than it is.

In the latest PA poll, Whistle-ass has 38%. And Missouri showed JK 2 points ahead.

Last night on Fox News, Susan Estrich said it best, "This will be a great convention, and the majority of the country is just waiting out Nov. 2 to dump Bush."

[MissouriTeacher]

6. Go to www.yahoo.com

This is their top news headline. :eyes:

[newyawker99]

8. Hi artemisia!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[KBlagburn]

7. Check These Out

I think these two sites have a better reading of whats going on in the polls. And they are very encouraging. Keep in mind the second one is run by a bush supporter and still shows Kerry leading in the electoral vote.


http://www.electoral-vote.com/

http://www.electionprojection.com/

[CaTeacher]

9. Hi KBlagBurn!

Welsome to DU!!!

:toast:

[TruthIsAll]

10. Kerry is solidly ahead. This EV simulation is based on latest state polls

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x585394