IT'S NOT CLOSE!
Projections and EV Simulation Models created by
TruthIsAll
National Polling data: Pollingreport.com
State Polling data: Electoral-Vote.com
COMBINED NATIONAL AND STATE PROJECTION
Kerry: 53.43%
Bush: 46.57%
Spread 6.87%
NATIONAL PROJECTION MODEL
National polling data from pollingreport.com
includes:
IBD, ABC, NWK, ARG, NBC, CBS, PEW, LAT, ZOGBY, TIME
Kerry 53.71%
Bush 46.29%
Spread 7.42%
STATE ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION MODEL
Most Likely Vote%; Electoral votes
Kerry 53.16% 331
Bush 46.84% 207
Spread 6.31% 124
Kerry wins 984 of 1000 simulation trial runs,
or a 98.4% probability of winning the election.
ELECTORAL VOTE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Data is downloaded from electoral-vote.com to Excel for the
forecasting model.
One thousand trials are run in each simulation.
Kerry Forecast Statistics:
Simulation I: Conservative Case
Assume 60% of undecided/other votes are allocated to Kerry.
Receives 52.1% of the vote.
Wins 91.1% of the trials
Average 310 electoral votes.
Maximum 416 electoral votes.
Simulation II: Most Likely Case
Assume 70% of undecided/other votes are allocated to Kerry.
Receives 53.2% of the vote.
Wins 98.4% of the trials
Average 331 electoral votes.
Maximum 423 electoral votes.
Simulation III: Optimistic Case
Assume 80% of undecided/other votes are allocated to Kerry.
Receives 54.2% of the vote.
Wins 99.9% of the trials
Average 352 electoral votes.
Maximum 434 electoral votes.
LAST THREE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
(in millions of votes)
Dem 138.75 52.6%
Rep 125.03 47.4%
BUSH JOB APPROVAL
The data source is PollingReport.com
2004 Avg Nwk Fox CNN Pew Harris CBS ABC Time NBC AP Zogby
Jan. 54.50 50 58 60 56 na 50 58 54 54 56 49
Feb. 49.67 48 48 51 48 51 50 50 54 na 47 na
Mar. 48.75 48 48 49 46 na 51 50 na 50 48 na
Apr. 48.80 49 50 52 48 48 46 51 49 na 48 47
May 45.20 42 48 47 44 na 41 47 46 47 48 42
June 47.00 na 48 49 48 50 42 47 na 45 48 46
July 48.00 48 47 49 46 na 45 na 50 48 50 49
NATIONAL POLL PROJECTION METHODOLOGY
The data source is PollingReport.com
Monthly polling data from:
IBD, ABC, NWK, ARG, NBC, CBS, PEW, LAT, ZOGBY,
TIME
The projection is based on the latest monthly average of the
ten polls
adjusted by allocating 70% of undecided/other voters to
Kerry.
`
10 Poll Average Projection
Kerry Bush Diff Kerry Bush Diff
Jan 42.5 50.2 -11.5 46.5 53.5 -7.0
Feb 48.0 45.4 2.6 52.6 47.4 5.2
Mar 48.1 44.4 3.8 53.4 46.6 6.8
Apr 47.4 44.9 2.5 52.8 47.2 5.6
May 47.1 44.2 2.9 53.2 46.8 6.4
June 47.1 45.0 2.1 52.6 47.4 5.3
July 48.6 44.1 4.5 53.7 46.3 7.4
Kerry National Poll Projection Formula:
10-Poll Avg 48.6
+ allocation 5.1
= Projection: 53.7 % of total vote.
Kerry: Undecided/other allocation
Latest Polls 60% 60% 70% 70% 80% 80%
Kerry Bush Proj % P (win) Proj % P (win) Proj % P (win)
CNN 49.0 47.0 51.1 64.3% 51.8 72.6% 52.2 76.8%
AP 45.0 49.0 50.6 57.3% 49.2 39.5% 49.8 47.3%
FOX 45.0 44.0 52.4 78.8% 52.7 81.6% 53.8 89.7%
46.3 46.7 51.4 67.4% 51.2 66.0% 51.9 74.0%
IBD 44.0 41.0 52.6 80.7% 54.5 93.3% 56.0 97.7%
ABC 46.0 46.0 48.5 30.9% 51.6 70.3% 52.4 78.8%
NWK 51.0 45.0 54.8 94.7% 53.8 89.7% 54.2 91.9%
ARG 49.0 45.0 53.0 84.1% 53.2 85.7% 53.8 89.7%
NBC 54.0 43.0 58.4 99.7% 56.1 97.9% 56.4 98.4%
CBS 49.0 44.0 54.3 92.4% 53.9 90.3% 54.6 93.7%
PEW 46.0 44.0 50.2 52.7% 53.0 84.1% 54.0 90.9%
LAT 48.0 46.0 51.2 65.5% 52.2 76.8% 52.8 82.5%
ZOGBY 46.0 44.0 52.0 74.8% 53.0 84.1% 54.0 90.9%
TIME 50.0 45.0 52.0 74.8% 53.5 87.8% 54.0 90.9%
AVG 48.3 44.3 52.7 91.1% 53.5 95.9% 54.2 98.3%
ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION FORECAST METHODOLOGY
Kerry's vote % is weighted by each state's percentage of the
total vote in the last 3 elections..
Kerry's projected % for each state is based on the latest
state poll, adjusted
by the allocation of undecided/other voters.
The probability of Kerry winning a state is determined by the
current poll spread: Kerry - Bush.
The spread is comapred to the MoE.
The greater the spread, the higher the probability that Kerry
will win the state.
Most Likely Case
Assume 70% Undecided/other to Kerry
Win Prob. Pct EV
Kerry 98.4% 53.2% 331
Bush 1.6% 46.8% 207
State Electoral Vote Simulation: Historical Voting, Kerry
Projection and Win Probability
Note: Dem% is Democratic % of the two-party vote in the last
three pres. elections
Hist% Dem% Kerry% Kerry% EV Trials runs 1-10 of 1000
Kerry Vote Proj. Prob. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Proj. 52.60% 53.16% Win 351 372 278 309 305 393 275 390 326 363
AL 44.8 45.0 10.6 9 9
AK 37.6 40.7 1.0
AZ 48.8 53.9 83.5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
AR 55.2 50.6 56.0 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
CA 57.4 58.1 97.9 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55
CO 48.8 49.3 43.1 9 9 9 9 9 9
CT 57.7 62.6 99.9 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
DE 56.8 57.1 96.2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
DC 90.3 90.4 100.0 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
FL 50.7 51.7 66.5 27 27 27 27 27
GA 47.6 45.7 14.1 15 15
HI 59.0 60.9 99.7 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
ID 35.7 39.0 0.3
IL 57.9 60.0 99.4 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
IN 44.8 45.9 15.3 11
IA 51.8 51.9 68.3 7 7 7 7 7 7
KS 42.4 41.6 1.8 6
KY 46.7 45.3 12.0
LA 49.2 49.0 40.1 9 9 9 9
ME 57.1 52.3 71.7 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
MD 57.8 58.6 98.4 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
MA 65.3 66.7 100.0 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
MI 54.7 53.0 77.3 17 17 17 17 17 17
MN 55.7 53.0 77.3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
MS 44.3 36.3 0.0
MO 52.5 53.0 77.3 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
MT 44.9 42.8 3.6
NE 37.5 36.5 0.0
NV 49.9 53.2 78.8 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
NH 51.7 52.6 74.2 4 4 4 4 4 4
NJ 56.5 56.6 95.1 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
NM 53.0 55.3 90.7 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
NY 62.6 65.0 100.0 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31
NC 46.6 48.9 39.2 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
ND 40.8 37.2 0.1
OH 50.8 52.6 74.2 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
OK 42.8 39.2 0.3
OR 53.6 55.6 91.9 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
PA 54.2 57.8 97.4 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
RI 65.6 64.2 100.0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
SC 44.4 47.5 26.6 8 8 8 8
SD 44.5 44.8 9.7 3
TN 50.5 50.8 57.9 11 11 11 11 11 11
TX 44.3 42.6 3.2
UT 33.6 29.7 0.0
VT 59.4 60.1 99.4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
VA 47.3 48.5 35.4 13 13 13
WA 55.9 55.1 89.9 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
WV 54.0 47.2 24.2 5 5
WI 52.7 55.0 89.4 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
WY 38.3 30.8 0.0
Avg 52.60% 53.16% - 351 372 278 309 305 393 275 390 326 363