THE TRUTH: 16 NATIONAL POLLS, KERRY'S PROB (WIN) 91-99%

[TruthIsAll]

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2060158

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. I Admire Your Enthusiasm But The Election Is Three Months Away....

NT

[Zidane]

2. This doesn't seem very accurate

"THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVES HIM A 96.89% PROBABILITY OF
WINNING, ASSUMING HE GETS 70% OF THE OTHER/UNDECIDED VOTE."

*ASSUMING* he gets. Hell, I have an upper 90% shot of winning the election in november as well *assuming* I were to get 99% of the vote.

Predictions based on assumptions - especially when there are literally millions of variables (every single voter for one thing) - are generally just that - predictions. I predict I'll win the lotto tomorrow.

Seriously - this is no time to declare certain victory and get complacent. There is a HELL of a lot of work to do before November - and if it isn't done - and done right - that prediction will be, shall we say, less than accurate.

I am reminded of Lieberman saying he has already certainly secured the nomination early in the primary. Such a prediction served him well didn't it?

[WyLoochka]

3. TruthIsAll is DU's

long time resident statistician. His number crunching is interesting, pertinent and valuable - no need to be so condescending - I'll bet TIA understands the ramifications far better than you do.

[CanonRay]

4. I'd like to believe this but...

I just saw a poll that said 93% of Republicans are going to vote for Bush. I cannot understand how anyone who is thinking at all can continue to support this idiot, let alone 93%. This worries me, as I was hoping "real" Republicans (not neocons or religious nuts) would at least stay home.

[AlecBGreen]

5. Hi CanonRay!

welcome to DU! :hi: