A Split Decision With a Clear Winner

[bicentennial_baby]

With Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton trading victories in North Carolina and Indiana, it's tempting to call Tuesday's primary vote a split decision. Instead, political prediction markets have declared Sen. Obama a clear winner.

Sen. Obama began Election Day rated a 76% chance to win the Democratic nomination. By the time the poll results were finalized, the markets had reassessed his chances at 89%. This 13 percentage-point rise makes Tuesday's primaries the best day of the campaign for Sen. Obama since the surge of momentum he enjoyed after the Iowa caucuses.

On the flipside, Sen. Clinton's chances of securing the nomination were cut in half, falling from 22% to 10%.

Sen. Obama's victory in North Carolina wasn't surprising, as he had begun the day rated a 93% chance to win. His 14-point winning margin was perhaps somewhat stronger than had been expected.

-snip-

What are the broader implications of these late primaries? As Sen. Clinton's chances of becoming the Democratic nominee plummeted, and Sen. Obama's soared, the chances of the ultimate Democrat candidate winning the general election remained unchanged. Taken together these two facts yield the interesting implication that perhaps there is not much difference in the electability of Sen. Obama and Sen. Clinton.

Looking forward to November, an Obama-McCain race seems increasingly likely. And Sen. Obama is the early betting favorite.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121017180057774057.html