7/28 KERRY: 96.62% WIN PROBABILITY, 324EV, 52.76% of the vote

[TruthIsAll]

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=2090427#

[meti57b]

1. hey, I love it! Thanks!

[Worst Username Ever]

2. Is that from a source, or is it your own calculations?

Just curious, thats all.

[TruthIsAll]

5. My model based on pollingreport.com (nat)/ electoral-vote.com (state) data

tia

[Worst Username Ever]

6. Ok just wondering, thanks! n/t

[mom cat]

3. Impressive link to some fantastic data.

[Dancing_Dave]

4. I sure hope it works out that way!

As a person who majored in Psychology, I know that statistics are not always so scientific as they seem to be, especially when they involve polls of fickle human subjects. Remember Mark Twain's list of lie types: Lies, Damn Lie, and Statistics.

But this study does seem to have pretty solid and balanced methadology going for it. If the election were held next weak, Bush would probably loose.

The big unknown is that the neo-cons around Bush will do just about anything to hold on to their power, and we don't know what treacherous moves they may be making behind the scenes right now.

It's very important for everybody to let your Congresspersons of either party know that you oppose and will not tolerate the proposed law which would make it possible for the Department of Homeland Security to delay or cancel votes in the event of "Terrorism".

[ps1074]

7. I would take

100% win probability, 270EV

:)

But hey, that is just me :)

[cheezus]

8. what are you P-values?