Lets talk about electoral votes

[MsUnderstood]

My boss (what a pessimist) informed me that the electoral votes in the states has shifted because of the new census results.

He said that if the Gore Bush Results were applied to the new electoral college then Bush would win.

I saw on TV that there are 70 swing electoral votes (but don't recall) where from.

Anyway, what states were effected?

Is there a site with a comparision of then and now (pictures are nice)?

How do you think the change will effect the nation?

[WI_DEM]

1. your boss is right

but we are challenging Bush in many more of the states Bush won in '00 than Bush is challenging Kerry in Gore states.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. The Pukes "Gained Seven Or Eight Votes " Cuz Of The Census....

It's not the end of the world....


More promising is the fact that if * gets the same % of women, African American, and Hispanic votes as he did in 00 he will lose by 3,000,000 votes because of demographic shifts....

[Synnical]

3. Zogby Poll: Kerry wins Presidency if Election was held today

The collection of state polls, conducted July 19-23, shows Mr. Kerry leading, 275 to 220, with three of the 16 states in the collection - Florida, Missouri, and Nevada - excluded from the count.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=847

[MousePlayingDaffodil]

4. The Electoral College vote in 2000 . . . .

. . . . was 271 for Bush and 267 for Gore (actually, Gore received only 266 votes because one D.C. Democratic elector cast her vote, as a protest, for "other").

Given the same states won, with the post-2000 Census Electoral College alignment taken into consideration, the result is 278 for Bush and 260 for Gore.

[mrboba1]

5. Well,

He said that if the Gore Bush Results were applied to the new electoral college then Bush would win.

If you apply the Gore/Bush results to 2000, * won as well. I fail to see his point...

The fact of the matter is that Kerry still has to pick up one additional state than Gore did - and would have no matter which EV would be used.

[Mz Pip]

6. 3 Southern states

picked up 6 or 7 electoral votes from the north due to population shifts.

MzPip
:dem:

[yellowcanine]

7. Gore states + Florida (or Ohio) wins for Kerry - so it is not that big of

a deal really.

[fujiyama]

8. Here's an interactive calculator

http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/politics/2004_ELECTIONGUIDE_GRAPHIC/index.html

Several states Gore won in the NE (PA, MI, NY, as well as others) lost some EVs as well.

[tritsofme]

9. The 2000 map is now 278-260, * won 271-267 last time

That means that he could loose either NH, NV, WV and still win.

He could loose a combination of NV and NH, and it would go to the House unless Bush pulls out one of Maine's electoral votes.

Its the same deal if he looses NH and WV.

[Massacure]

10. If it goes to the house we get screwed over for another four years

I don't see the democrats picking up enough seats to win in the house.

[featherman]

11. Your boss is right about population/census changes affecting

the Bush/Gore electoral vote split. On the other hand if Bush took all the state he did in 2000 he would win again as he did in 2000 (well...sort of). So I am not sure about your boss' point.
Leaving all that behind, electoral vote obsessives like myself generally consider all of the Gore states solid for Kerry already and unlikely to flip to Bush in November. There is some question about MN, WI, IA in some polls but all three of these have voted DEM for the last four elections and I believe will again in 2004.
Bush's small (but potentially fatal) problem is in smaller states like NV,NH, WV which he took in 2000 but which Kerry leads now. The bigger Bush problem is that these larger states that he "won" in 2000 are now major tossups : AZ, MO, OH, FL, NC. Other tossups include CO, TN, AR, VA.
For help with this, just put the following site in your favorites and check it daily. It is very helpful in getting a sense on how things are going at present:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[MsUnderstood]

12. Thanks for the information

The links were great and so was the commentary.

I'm going to send the this link (http://www.electoral-vote.com/) to my boss.

My 12 year old watched Kerry's speech with me tonight. She is so into politics--I'm so proud.

Kerry was amazing tonight. I hope that the UNDECIDEDs were watching the speech and not the media spin.