I have Limited Confidence in the media and their Mean Standard Errors.

[TruthIsAll]

That's why I did this analysis to prove Kerry is significantly
ahead. Even in the whoremedia's own polls.

Case in point: 
Here are 16 national polls. 

Kerry is ahead in 13 of them. 
His mean (average) polling number is 47.94%.

Bush is ahead in three and has a mean of 45.06%.

Kerry leads by 2.88%.

Doesn't seem like much, right?

Let's do some statistical analysis.

We can say with 99% confidence, that Kerry's real population
percentage is within the range 46.15% - 49.73%.

We can also say with 99% confidence, that Bush's numbers are
between 43.72% - 46.40%. There is only a 0.49% chance that his
actual population mean is over 46.40%. That's one-half of one
percent.

Moral of this story: Don't listen to the Bushit pundits. Kerry
is solidly ahead as of today. The more polls, the more
confident we can be in making that statement.

Its called the Standard Error of the Mean statistic.

MATHEMATICAL TRUTH IS ALL				



KERRY NATIONAL POLL WIN PROBABILITY							
										
Based on 16 National Polls
	                  Kerry %   Kerry % of other/undecided					
"-------	Kerry	Bush	vs. Bush		50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	
										
TIME	50.0	45.0	52.6		52.5	53.0	53.5	54.0	54.5	
FOX	45.0	44.0	50.6		50.5	51.6	52.7	53.8	54.9	
CNN	49.0	47.0	51.0		51.0	51.4	51.8	52.2	52.6	
LAT	48.0	46.0	51.1		51.0	51.6	52.2	52.8	53.4	
PEW	46.0	44.0	51.1		51.0	52.0	53.0	54.0	55.0	
										
IBD	44.0	41.0	51.8		51.5	53.0	54.5	56.0	57.5	
CBS	49.0	44.0	52.7		52.5	53.2	53.9	54.6	55.3	
DEMC	52.0	45.0	53.6		53.5	53.8	54.1	54.4	54.7	
WP	48.0	49.0	49.5		49.5	49.8	50.1	50.4	50.7	
NWK	51.0	45.0	53.1		53.0	53.4	53.8	54.2	54.6	
										
ZOGBY	46.0	44.0	51.1		51.0	52.0	53.0	54.0	55.0	
AP	45.0	49.0	47.9		48.0	48.6	49.2	49.8	50.4	
NBC1	54.0	43.0	55.7		55.5	55.8	56.1	56.4	56.7	
NBC2	45.0	47.0	48.9		49.0	49.8	50.6	51.4	52.2	
ARG	49.0	45.0	52.1		52.0	52.6	53.2	53.8	54.4	
QPAC	46.0	43.0	51.7		51.5	52.6	53.7	54.8	55.9	
										
Mean	47.94	45.06	51.53		51.44	52.14	52.84	53.54	54.24	
Std	2.77	2.08	1.82		1.75	1.68	1.69	1.76	1.89	
Stdm	0.69	0.52	0.46		0.44	0.42	0.42	0.44	0.47	
										
Before Stdm Adjustment (see below):										
Upper	53.37	49.13	55.10		54.87	55.44	56.15	56.99	57.95	
Lower	42.50	40.99	47.96		48.01	48.84	49.53	50.08	50.52	
X	49.13	49.13	50.00		50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	
Prob >
x	33.34%	2.50%	79.92%		79.44%	89.77%	95.35%	97.77%	98.74%	
										
Adjusted Standard Error of the Mean (Stdm):										
									
95% Confidence Limits									
Range	Kerry	Bush							
Upper	49.30	46.08							
Lower	46.58	44.05							
x	46.08	46.08							
Prob > x	99.63%	2.50%							
									
Probability:									
95.00%	Kerry within Upper-Lower Range								
99.63%	Kerry exceeds Bush Upper Limit								
2.50%	Bush exceeds his Upper Limit								
									
99% Confidence Limits									
Range	Kerry	Bush							
Upper	49.73	46.40							
Lower	46.15	43.72							
x	46.40	46.40							
Prob > x	98.67%	0.49%							
									
Probability:									
99.00%	Kerry within Upper-Lower Range								
98.67%	Kerry exceeds Bush Upper Limit								
0.49%	Bush exceeds his Upper Limit								
									
									
Notes:									
Std =Standard Deviation (variability)									
Stdm = Standard Error of the Mean 									
Stdm = Std / sqrt(n) = Std / sqrt(16) = Std/4									
									
95% Confidence Limits formula:									
Upper Limit = Mean + 1.96*Stdm								
Lower Limit = Mean - 1.96* Stdm								
								
99% Confidence Limits formula:								
Upper Limit = Mean + 2.58*Stdm								
Lower Limit = Mean - 2.58* Stdm								
								
Notes:								
NBC1 - Princeton Associates								
NBC2 - Wall Street Journal								
CNN - Gallup								
WP - ABC