Likely Voters?

[wish_I_could_vote]

I apologize in advance if this is a dumb question, I am new to America.

Last night I heard Michael Moore say that the "likely voters' we hear so much about in the polls, are people who voted in the last election. Is that how it works? I had always assumed that the poll asked the question, "do you intend to vote?" and that is how they chose who to include. But if they are only polling people who voted last time, the numbers have to be way off don't they?

[mermaid]

1. I'd Assume So

especially in light of how many NEW Voters are registering as a result of F-911...and those who weren't old enough to vote last time...

[OneBlueSky]

2. the numbers ARE way off . . .

considering that Gore beat Bush in the popular vote, and assuming that very few (if any) Gore voters will switch to Bush . . . add to that Republican defections (of which there will be a substantial number, imo), "undecideds" (who will bread heavily for Kerry), and first-time voters (energized by Bush fatigue), Kerry should win this by a comfortable margin, if not a landslide . . . now if we could just figure a way to ensure that the votes are counted as they are cast . . .

[Redneck Socialist]

3. I'm not a polling expert, but I believe it is a bit of both

Polling companies often target people who have a history of voting, i.e. people that voted in the last election or last several. Not surprisingly those people are much more likely to vote than those that have not voted in past elections.

Pollers often ask "are you likely to vote?" How people answer that question may be used in different ways. To screen for likely voters or to gage the depth and strength of support for a specific candidate.

I believe (with absolutely no evidence to back me up) that there will be many new voters this year. The country is very polarized, but one benefit of that is that people are actually paying attention to politics for a change. You can hardly avoid a political discussion these days and the upside of that I believe, is that it will drive more people to the polls. It also make me very skeptical of the poll numbers I see.