POLLS-running totals (trend) of head to head Kerry-Bush

[TexasSissy]

I thought this might be interesting. A listing showing the running totals in head-to-head matches 1/04 thru 7/04. Note that some by the same poll on the same date are present twice; these are "with Nader" and "without Nader" numbers.

Surprisingly, there has been little change all year! Except that Bush in the lead occurs less frequently, and when he does, it's a smaller lead than earlier in the year. Note that Nader DOES make a difference.

POLL............DATE..............BUSH..KERRY...NADER.UNDEC..LEADS

ARG.............1/04/04..Reg......46....47......n/a...7.......K
Zogby..........1/06/03..Likely...54....31......n/a...15......B
CNN/USA/Gallup1/11/04..Likely...55....43......n/a...1.......B
CNN/USA/Gallup1/29/04..Likely...46....53......n/a...1.......K
ARG.............2/04/04..Reg......46....48......n/a...6.......K
CNN/USA/Gallup2/17/04..Likely...43....55......n/a...1.......K
CNN/USA/Gallup2/08/04..Likely...49....48......n/a...2.......B
AP/Ipsos........3/03/04..Reg......46....45......6.....2.......B
Zogby...........3/03/04..Likely...49....36......n/a...16......B
CNN/USA/Gallup3/07/04..Likely...44....52......n/a...1.......K
CNN/USA/Gallup3/07/04..Likely...44....50......2.....2.......K
NBC/WSJ.........3/08/04..Reg......46....43......5.....3.......B
NBC/WSJ.........3/08/04..Reg......48....45......n/a...4.......B
ARG.............3/11/04..Reg......43....50......n/a...7.......K
ARG.............3/11/04..Reg......42....48......2.....8.......K
Zogby...........3/19/04..Likely...46....46......3.....5.......Tie
AP/Ipsos........3/21/04..Reg......46....43......5.....6.......B
CNN/USA/Gallup3/28/04..Likely...51....47......n/a...1.......B
CNN/USA/Gallup3/28/04..Likely...49....45......4.....1.......B
Zogby...........4/04/04..Likely...45....47......n/a...6.......K
Zogby...........4/04/04..Likely...46....45......3.....5.......B
AP/Ipsos........4/07/04..Reg......49....45......3.....3.......B
AP/Ipsos........4/07/04..Reg......45....44......6.....5.......B
CNN/USA/Gallup4/08/04..Likely...48....45......n/a...2.......B
CNN/USA/Gallup4/08/04..Likely...47....43......4.....3.......B
ARG..............4/09/04..Reg......44....50......n/a...6.......K
ARG..............4/09/04..Reg......43....48......2.....7.......K
CNN/USA/Gallup4/18/04..Likely...51....46......n/a...1.......B
CNN/USA/Gallup4/18/04..Likely...50....44......4.....2.......B
NBC/WSJ.........5/03/04..Reg......46....42......5.....5.......B
NBC/WSJ.........5/03/04..Reg......48....45......n/a...4.......B
CNN/USA/Gallup5/04/04..Likely...48....49......n/a...2.......K
CNN/USA/Gallup5/04/04..Likely...47....47......3.....2.......Tie
AP/Ipsos........5/05/04..Reg......46....43......7.....5.......B
ARG.............5/06/04..Reg......44....47......n/a...9.......K
ARG.............5/06/04..Reg......44....45......4.....7.......K
CNN/USA/Gallup5/09/04..Likely...48....47......n/a...2.......B
CNN/USA/Gallup5/09/04..Likely...47....45......5.....1.......B
CBS/NYT.........5/23/04..Reg......41....47......5.....5.......K
CBS/NYT.........5/23/04..Reg......40....50......n/a...6.......K
CNN/USA/Gallup5/23/04..Likely...47....49......n/a...3.......K
CNN/USA/Gallup5/23/04..Likely...46....47......4.....2.......K
ARG..............6/03/04..Reg......46....48......n/a...6.......K
ARG..............6/03/04..Reg......45....46......3.....6.......K
Time.............6/04/04..Likely...49....48......n/a...3.......B
Time.............6/04/04..Likely...48....43......6.....3.......B
CNN/USA/Gallup6/06/04..Likely...44....50......n/a...3.......K
CNN/USA/Gallup6/06/04..Likely...43....49......5.....2.......K
AP/Ipsos........6/09/04..Reg......46....45......6.....2.......B
CNN/USA/Gallup6/23/04..Likely...49....48......n/a...2.......B
CNN/USA/Gallup6/23/04..Likely...48....47......3.....2.......B
NBC/WSJ.......6/28/04..Reg......45....44......4.....5.......B
NBC/WSJ.......6/28/04..Reg......47....47......n/a...4.......Tie
ARG.............7/03/04..Reg......45....49......n/a...6.......K
ARG.............7/03/04..Reg......44....47......3.....6.......K
Marist..........7/04/04..Reg......46....47......3.....4.......K
NBC.............7/06/04..Reg......41....49......4.....6.......K
NBC.............7/06/04..Reg......43....54......n/a...3.......K
Time............7/08/04..Likely...45....49......n/a...6.......K
Time............7/08/04..Likely...45....47......4.....5.......K
ABC/WashPost....7/11/04..Reg......46....46......4.....1.......Tie
CNN/USA/Gallup7/11/04..Likely...45....50......2.....2.......K
Pew.............7/18/04..Reg......44....46......3.....7.......K
CBS/NYT.........7/15/04..Reg......44....49......n/a...4.......K
CBS/NYT.........7/15/04..Reg......42....45......5.....6.......K
Quinnipiac......7/22/04..Reg......43....44......4.....9.......K
CNN/USA/Gallup7/21/04..Likely...46....47......4.....2.......K
CNN/USA/Gallup7/21/04..Likely...47....49......n/a...2.......K
NBC/WSJ.........7/21/04..Reg......47....45......2.....5.......B
Fox.............7/21/04..Reg......43....42......4.....10......B
Time............7/22/04..Reg......44....46......5.....4.......K
ABC/Wash.Post...7/25/04..Reg......48....46......3.....1.......K
Zogby...........7/29/04..Likely...41....46......3.....8.......K
Rasmussen......7/29/04...........45....48......n/a...n/a.....K

(Drat this formatting business!)

[izzie]

1. I guess their will be no Dem. for Bush this year. Looks tight.

It is I guess like they said and it is the middle we need to get. I felt we needed to go for our base but every thing I read seems to say we have it already.