2210, no such number; Obama clinches the pledged delegate majority today. Period.

[ProSense]

Obama will get at least 45 delegates out of KY and OR

Scenario 1: Do not seat Florida or Michigan. Current Official DNC rules
Delegates Available: 4049
Nomination: 2025.0
PD majority: 1627.0

Pledged Delegates(GP) Obama 1612.5, Hillary 1442.5
Needed for PD majority Obama 14.5, Hillary 184.5



Scenario 2: Seat Michigan based on new the proposal 69-59 split, but not Florida.
Delegates Available: 4206.0
Nomination: 2103.5
PD majority: 1691.0

Pledged Delegates(GP): Obama 1612.5, Hillary 1442.5
MI Pledged Delegates Obama 59, Hillary 69
Needed for PD majority: Obama 19.5 Hillary 179.5



Scenario 3: Seat Florida, based on January election, but not Michigan. FL Pledged get ½ votes, superdelegates get full vote.
Delegates Available: 4167.5
Nomination: 2084.0
PD majority: 1673.0

Pledged Delegates(GP): Obama 1612.5, Hillary 1442.5
FL 1/2 Pledged Delegates(GP): Obama 34.5, Hillary 52.5
Needed for PD majority: Obama 26.0, Hillary 178.0



Scenario 4: Combine scenario 2 and scenario 3. FL 1/2 vote, MI 69-59 split and Super full vote.
Delegates Available: 4324.5
Nomination: 2162.5
PD majority: 1737.0

Pledged Delegates(GP): Obama 1612.5, Hillary 1442.5
MI Pledged Delegates Obama 59, Hillary 69
FL 1/2 Pledged Delegates(GP): Obama 34.5, Hillary 52.5
Needed for PD majority: Obama 31.0, Hillary 173.0


Never going to happen:

Scenario 5: Seat FL & MI based on the elections that have taken place.
(Obama does not get MI 55 uncommitted).
Delegates Available: 4417.0
Nomination: 2209.0
PD majority: 1783.5

link

Hillary's camp has been throwing the 2210 number around when, in fact, it only applies in two scenarios: no delegates to Obama or a revote.

In every viable scenario, Obama will have enough to clinch the PD majority today.

May 19, 2008

Iowa chair for Obama

Scott Brennan, who stayed neutral when it was all about Iowa, is coming out for Obama.

Myrtle Strong Enemy, 101, waits for US Democratic
presidential candidate and US Senator Barack
Obama, (D-IL), to speak in Crow Agency,
Montana May 19, 2008. Strong Enemy is
the oldest woman in the Crow Nation.
REUTERS/Rick Wilking

[hokies4ever]

1. Where do you get off using math to analyze Hillary's logic?

:rofl:

[me b zola]

2. Yep.

Tonight begins the one week period on DU?

[Cheap_Trick]

3. don't confuse the issue with your FACTS and NUMBERS

it's all about entitlement. it's all about divine right. this is hillary's turn, numbers and rules and voter be damned.

[ProSense]

10. Yup. n/t

[ProSense]

4. Guam superdelegate for Obama

Congresswoman Madeleine Bordallo Endorses Barack Obama; Delegate Countdown - 107 To Go

[DevonRex]

5. Damn that sexist math! nt

[ProSense]

6. Really, why do they hate math? n/t

[localroger]

7. Why does math hate Hillary? /nt

[pompano]

8. What is this 2210 number?

I thought it was 2025? Whats next... 2210 plus tax?

Out of curiosity what was this rationale. Thats news to me. I'm not the least bit surprised but this is the first I heard, I think? I am certain that I'm not sure I have heard this before.

I hear it now. That sweet sound of goal posts scrubbing down the highway.
:sarcasm:

[AZ Criminal JD]

21. Actually it was the number Obama agreed to when he entered the race last year.

Sorry about that. Hope your head doesn't explode.

[haymakeragain]

32. Hillary agreed in writing to 2024. Waiting to hear the "pop"

when your head comes out of your arse.

[AZ Criminal JD]

36. She agreed not to campaign in MI and FL

That was it. Don't lie.

[Scurrilous]

9. K & R

:thumbsup:

[EnviroBat]

11. I'm just a simple Caveman...

Your math frightens and confuses me...

[ProSense]

12. The numbers from KY are coming in

Kentucky (5%)

Clinton 24,204 52%

Obama 20,661 44%

[ProSense]

13. KY 21% reporting

Clinton 83,947 52%

Obama 71,327 44%

link

[tritsofme]

14. Pledged delegate majority is arbitrary and meaningless.

Wake me when the first ballot is cast in Denver.

[ProSense]

15. No it isn't.

After tonight Obama will be 62-65 delegates away from the nomination.

He will gain another 35 to 40 from the remaining contest, and will then be 22 to 27 delegates from the nomination.

Hillary will be 185 to 200 delegates away, with less than 200 superdelegates up for grabs.

[StevieM]

16. Well then isn't it as shame that Obama won't be the nominee until he reaches 2210 (eom)

[ProSense]

17. I take it you didn't understand the OP? n/t

[Maribelle]

18. Obama cannot claim delegates that are not officially 'pledged' yet, such as Texas caucus delegates.

He will not have those officially tonight, nor this weekend, nor next week.


Try June.

[ProSense]

19. Still doesn't change the dynamics. n/t

[Maribelle]

20. You posted 'Obama clinches the pledged delegate majority today' and that is wrong.

[ProSense]

22. No it isn't, he needs 14. The pledged delegates in TX are not going to change by 45 or more. n/t

[Maribelle]

23. The caucus delegates in Texas will not be 'pledged' until the State Convention in June.

edit:


Those are the rules. And we all know how much Obama wants to stick to the rules, now don't we.

[ProSense]

25. Doesn't change the dynamics. What don't you understand? n/t

[Maribelle]

26. He will not 'clinch' the 'pledged' delegates by stating some number.

It will not happen until June.

[ProSense]

27. Yes, the numbers are listed in his column. He doesn't have to lie like Hillary's popular vote n/t

[Maribelle]

28. Wrong. Obama has 304 soft delegates that will not be pledged until the state conventions.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/D.phtml

[ProSense]

29. The operative word: has n/t

[Maribelle]

30. Wrong again. The operative word is SOFT not pledged.

He cannot claim a 'pledged' majority tonight. This appears to be a sore point, and a lack of knowledge of the rules. But sorry, if y'all demand that the rules be strictly enforced, then enforce them. Otherwise, one could only assume forked tongues are the dominant feature among Obama's followers.

[haymakeragain]

33. So how's she gonna steal 'em? Inquiring minds want to know.

Just curious.

[Kukesa]

24. Myrtle Strong Enemy ROCKS! Great photo. n/t

[DearAbby]

31. Someone get the Stage hook...

she is not going to bow out gracefully...this is going to be ugly.

Do you hear that massive sucking sound? That is the goalposts being pulled up yet again...2210 delegates??

Clinton's motto: if you can't win by the rules, change them in the middle of the game, or totally upset the board!

[ProSense]

34. Done! n/t

[progressoid]

35. Math is hard.

[ProSense]

37. Hillary's impossible math doesn't improve with FL and MI

Obama has clinched the pledged delegate majority for the three other scenarios. There are 212 superdelegates uncommitted.

Obama currently has 1965 total delegates, Hillary 1782, after adding the FL and MI delegates allocated under each scenario

Scenario 2 Nomination: 2103.5
Obama needs: 76.5
Hillary needs: 247.5 (35.5 more than the number of superdelegates remaining)

Scenario 3 Nomination: 2084.0
Obama needs: 86.5
Hillary needs: 251.5 (39.5 more than the number of superdelegates remaining)

Scenario 4 Nomination: 2162.5
Obama needs: 106.0
Hillary needs: 261.0 (49 more than the number of superdelegates remaining)

Hillary's best case scenario gives her 51 of the remaining 86 pledged delegates. Depending on the scenario agreed to, 3 to 16 superdelegates for Obama would leave Hillary having to rely on all the remaining super delegates plus a few of Obama's.

Obama will get at least 35 delegates from the remaining contests. He then needs only 41 to 71 supers or 20% to 34% of the remaining.


Hillary seems to be operating under the bizarre notion that increasing the margin between what Obama has and needs helps her.

Clinched is clinched.