Obama clinches 2026 with 15 more superdelegates; Axelrod slaps down Hillary VP meeting talking point

[ProSense]

Undeclared Superdelegates: The Gang of 165 (+ 32 in Limbo)

By Al Giordano



(Graph by DemConWatch.)

<…>

To get to the current “magic number” of 2026, Obama needs just 69 more. Since he will surely get, at bare minimum, in the most conservative estimate of the three upcoming primaries, 35 of the remaining 86 pledged delegates to be chosen by Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota, and at least 19 of the 39 remaining “add on” delegates chosen by state Democratic committees (adding up to a guarantee of at least 54 more Obama pledged delegates, bringing his total to 2017 delegates), what it really means is that under the current math, Obama needs only 15 more superdelegates to clinch 2026 delegates.

That’s out of 165 non-add-on supers that have yet to declare for a candidate: in other words, with less than 10 percent of the remaining undeclared supers, Obama is the nominee. If he gets just one a day between now and June 5, when the primaries end, he’ll clear that hurdle. End of contest.

But what happens if suddenly Florida and Michigan are fully seated and the new “magic number” changes - as Senator Clinton insists - to 2210 delegates?

As I explained the other day, under the supposed “worst-case” scenario for Obama - if the Rules and Bylaws Committee were to seat both the rogue delegations at full strength with no penalty for either pledged or superdelegates from those states - Obama will net 80 pledged delegates plus three supers from Florida, and 55 pledged delegates plus five supers from Michigan, for a subtotal of 143.

Add those 143 delegates to his guaranteed 2017 and you get 2160 - just 50 short of 2210.

The 165 (non-add-on) undeclared superdelegates left come in these categories:

Governors: 6
Senators: 15
US Reps: 49
Party Elders: 4
DNC Members: 98

Seven of those DNC members - Chairman Dean and other officials - are prohibited by party rules from endorsing before there is a nominee, so cut the available DNC members to 91. That means that the total pool of undeclared superdelegates left is 165. Add 32 undeclared Florida and Michigan supers to that tally, and there would be 197.

To get to 2210, Obama would need 50 of those 197, about 25 percent of them. He’s already got a plurality of governors, senators, members of the US House and - this is new - he now leads 151.5 to 148.5 among DNC members.

50 superdelegates: That would be all that would be needed - even under “Clinton rules” - or about 3.5 a day between now and June 4. (That’s not “3.5 more than Clinton” - it’s just 3.5 a day no matter how many or few go into her column, as long as she doesn’t get more than 75 percent of them.)

Who are these remaining undeclared superdelegates? They come in various categories. Many are on the fence because it is in their nature to not want to upset or offend anyone, be it a candidate, or their constituents on each side. Others have projects or ambitions that require support and good will from players in both camps. A few - like some members of Congress - probably will not even attend the convention or vote in the nomination fight because they don’t want their GOP rivals to whack them in ads for supporting either of the “liberal” presidential candidates. And a great many have already made up their minds to vote for Obama, but are waiting until all states have voted to announce their decisions.

Which is why I had to laugh aloud at an email I got today with the strangest of conspiracy theories. It posited that the remaining superdelegates might somehow force Obama to pick Clinton as his running mate. That is too funny. I have looked over the list, I know many of these undeclared supers, and these remaining undeclared ones are, by and large, the most milquetoast and neutrality-loving “wanna-be-friends-with-everyone” types in the entire party! They’re the least likely to try and impose anything on a nominee.

So, whether this will be decided by The Gang of 165 (of which just 15 would need to break Obama’s way) or the larger Gang of 197 (of which just 50, about one out of every four, would be needed to sew up Obama’s nomination), it is a piece of cake, a sure thing, a lead-pipe cinch that Obama will soon be the nominee.

Which is why, I suspect, that after giving Senator Clinton enough rope to continue to behave ridiculously as she did today in Florida for the next ten days, the Obama campaign may - a day or two before the May 31 Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting - pull the chair out from under her and call for seating the whole shebang, looking gracious and magnanimous in victory, and leaving her presidential campaign hanging by the rope of its own making.

*** Mo’ money, mo’ problems: All the speculation about whether or not Clinton wants to be Obama’s veep -- including Time’s report that Bill is pushing for it -- has ignored this point: Hillary becoming vice president would be a financial hit on the Clintons. Why? Because Bill Clinton would most likely have to give up all of his paid speeches, as well as many of his other business deals. Of course, this would have been the case had Clinton become president, but that sacrifice would have been worth it to Bill. Would the sacrifice be just as worth it on the veep front? With Obama promising an overly ethical and transparent White House, can his vice president’s spouse be giving paid speeches and entering business partnerships with anyone that might have business before the US government? Perhaps the easiest way out for Obama is for Jim Johnson to ask the Clintons to submit to a thorough vetting on the financial front, including seeing the list of the library donors and restricting Bill's ability to make the living he's been making the last eight years. Of course, with the Clintons making $109 million since leaving the White House, they can survive if Bill is giving fewer paid speeches.

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Obama strategist David Axelrod on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” said they haven’t engaged in any talks with Clinton about Veep, other negotiations...

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[rateyes]

1. Well, the number today is 61, not 69, so that means

he only needs 7 more supers.

:woohoo:

[Jersey Devil]

8. now 59 (nt)

[rateyes]

12. That gets the magic number down to 5.

It's getting closer.

[nxylas]

14. And am I correct in thinking that doesn't include the Pelosi Club?

I don't think they've officially declared yet, even though they said they'd support the candidate with the most pledged delegates, so that's 10 right there.

[Aloha Spirit]

21. you are correct. this is so freakin inevitable, i don't know how Clinton can stand the crushing

weight of inevitability.
And every attack on the DNC and the process makes it more inevitable.
We're all left to gaze at the slow motion collision of Hillary Clinton with the June 4th wall of inevitability.

[gkhouston]

31. LOL, I feel like Willy Wonka: "I can't stand the suspense. I hope it lasts". n/t

[rateyes]

22. We have a winner!!

[IndyOp]

25. Pelosi club includes only 6 superdelegates now according to DemConWatch

Uncommitted:
Rep. Nancy Pelosi (CA) (added 3/30)
Christine Pelosi (CA) (added 3/30)
Former President Jimmy Carter (GA) (added 5/1)
Betty Richie (TX) (added 3/30)
Denise Johnson (TX) (added 4/6)

Clinton endorsers:
Sen. Maria Cantwell (WA) - most pledged delegates, most states won

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/superdelegates-pledging-to-back.html

[windbreeze]

29. Cantwell endorsed Clinton?? I thought the whole bridgade here went to Obama??? n/t

[IndyOp]

30. I though the Pelosi club consisted of people who publically stated that they

would not vote in a way that overturned the result of the pledged delegate count. Most held off on stating who they would cast their SD votes for until a candidate had earned the majority of pledged delegates and most still haven't stated.

Cantwell endorsed Clinton some time ago, so if she switches her vote to be true to the pledged delegate count then that will shift the count by -1 for Clinton and +1 to Obama.

Click on the DemConWatch webpage link in my original post in this thread --- it lists other people who have since endorsed Obama. So, there remain 6 people who said they would cast their SD votes in a way that did not counteract the pledged delegates but who haven't yet announced how they will vote -- which should be for Obama because he has earned the majority of the pledged delegates now.

[NotThisTime]

19. I heard 60.5 needed

[Hola]

2. Get rid of DNC members

What's the point of having DNC members (who are unelected) as supers. I can see some point to give Govs, Senators, Reps and prev. Presidents/VP's and candidates, but having so many other superdelegates is just silly. DNC members should be neutral and support whoever the people decide is the candidate.

Change for 2012 of course.

[Adelante]

9. I don't agree

DNC members are the grassroots activists on the local level. I don't see why all superdelegates should be elected officials. I don't think we need 800 of them. But I wouldn't want to see only professional politicians as superdelegates.

[ekwhite]

17. I think the number of superdelegates should be zero

But that is a discussion for after the November election.

[Growler]

24. Agreed!

Let's get rid of the Superdelegates altogether, have closed (Dem only) primaries, and no caucuses -- just mail-in ballots only.

I'm at least half-way serious. :)

BTW, I caucused in WA, but still think it's an archaic system. Fun for some, perhaps, but too many drawbacks....

[hokies4ever]

18. Dean explained it as

they are elected, just from a different time. I'm not sure that I buy the logic of that argument, because clearly not all of them were officially elected by the people. This logic does make sense as to why some of the supers are not currently elected officials, like Jimmy Carter.

[eridani]

33. Point of information: DNC members are all elected

Son't know how it is in other ststes, but our state has a state committeman and a state committeewoman from each county and state legislative district, elected by voting members of those bodies. This body makes rules for the state party and elects DNC members.

[slinkerwink]

3. thank you for a great post!

[ProSense]

5. Thanks.

Guess it isn't sitting well with too many people. :)

[ProSense]

4. Facts can be harsh: "some of her own supporters believe the contest is over"

May 23, 2008

Arbiters of Clinton's Fate?

By E. J. Dionne Jr.
Friday, May 23, 2008; Page A17

<...>

Her rhetoric flies in the face of intensive efforts by members of the party's rules committee to settle the delegate battle with a compromise that would probably guarantee the nomination for Barack Obama. Ending the struggle quickly depends on whether the committee's peacemakers succeed in their work.

Clinton's chances of winning are slim, partly because some of her own supporters believe the contest is over. They see the clash over Michigan and Florida as futile for Clinton and destructive to the party.


<...>

In Florida on Wednesday, she linked the controversy both to the battle for democracy in Zimbabwe and to the disputed election of George W. Bush that still enrages many Democrats.

The heat of Clinton's rhetoric threatens to end an informal cease-fire she and Obama have observed in recent weeks, and some Democrats fear it presages a fight to the convention. It may thus fall to Clinton's own supporters on the rules committee to force her to accept a settlement. By picking this fight, Clinton may guarantee that her defeat is sealed not by her enemies but by her friends.

[jonestonesusa]

6. Thank you for the post, Prosense...

It will be great to settle the nomination - it won't be too long!

[Poll_Blind]

7. Incredibly informative- thank you so much! n/t

PB

[Bensthename]

10. Great graph, great read. Thanks.

:thumbsup:

[doublethink]

11. K&R

:kick:

[RainDog]

13. k&r

I hope it's true that the Obama campaign has an upper cut waiting and will let it loose before May 31. I honestly believe he has to crush her campaign in order for the democratic party to move forward.

[yodermon]

15. Problem?

Obama will net 80 pledged delegates plus three supers from Florida, and 55 pledged delegates plus five supers from Michigan,

I thought Hillary was "secretly" aligning a lot of the Michigan pledged delegates to vote for her at the convention should Michigan be allowed to be seated. The ones that should have been assigned to Obama if he were on the ballot.

[ekwhite]

16. This gives Obama a strategy to go for

Line up the 50 or so superdelegates he needs to win, declare his support for seating Michigan and Florida, and roll out the superdelegates on June 4th. That effectively cuts the legs out from under the Clinton campaign.

[ProSense]

20. More veiled threats from Hillary's top fundraiser

Both David Axelrod and Bill Burton told CNN there weren't talks.

UPDATE: Echoing the blind CNN quotes about a "civil war", Clinton fundraising chief Hassan Nemazee just said this to Greg Sargent:

"There's a desire on the part of the party to come together under any circumstances, and Hillary and her supporters will do everything in their power to help Obama win, should he become the nominee, whether or not she's on the ticket," Nemazee said to me this morning.

"But there's a risk that if she isn't invited on the ticket, Hillary's political and financial supporters may not feel compelled to be as integrated and involved in the Obama campaign in order to provide the maximum support that he'll need to prevail in November."

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(emphasis added)

As a group, Hillary's top donors gave $24 million to Democratic candidates and committees over the last 10 years. Maybe they need to stop making threats linked to Obama's fundraising and concentrate on paying off her $19 million in vendor debt and her $11 million personal loan.

[liberaldem4ever]

23. Another great post ProSense-thanks!! K&R

:hi: :kick:

[Debi]

26. I thought the Clinton camp changed the magic number to 2210

and the MSM decided that was AOK - ya know since HRC decided that FL/MI should have 100% of their delegates seated - and the RBC shouldn't have a say in that it should just be done. :banghead:

[4_Legs_Good]

27. The undeclared DNCers just LOVE the attention, they love the calls from President Clinton and

Ms. Obama. They love hearing from the campaigns, and being sent gifts. They're milking it for all it's worth. Most are probably enjoying that they'll end up having more say than anyone else about how long this drags on.

They're high on power

... and REALLY irritating the hell out of me.

Or maybe I'm wrong.

David

[AtomicKitten]

28. 57 and counting ....

:thumbsup:

[ProSense]

32. 56 total and 2 supers. n/t

[ProSense]

34. Math: 69 - 51 = 17 > 15 n/t

[hokies4ever]

36. Not sure of your point, but

perhaps you aren't including the supers who switched FROM Hillary to Obama in your analysis, whatever it is.

[ProSense]

35. Obama picks up three superdelegates from Hawaii

Obama picks up three superdelegates from Hawaii:

Chairman Brian Schatz and vice chairwoman Kari Luna say they will support Obama at the national convention. State Democrats chose retired Judge James Burns, also an Obama supporter, as the final superdelegate.

[ProSense]

37. Wyoming superdelegate for Obama

superdelegate and Wyoming Democratic Party Vice Chair Nancy Drummond endorsed Barack Obama

[ProSense]

38. Obama picks up three more superdelegates

5-28-08 - Added DNC Pat Waak (CO) for Obama
- Added DNC Meredith Woods-Smith (OR) for Obama

5-27-08 - Added DNC Nancy Drummond (WY) for Obama
- Switched DNC Kevin Rodriquez (VI) from Obama to Clinton. He switched from Clinton to Obama on 5/10. We got confirmation from the Clinton campaign that he has re-endorsed Clinton
- Added DNC Ben Pangelinan (GU) for Obama

link

[ProSense]

39. Another superdelegate for Obama

- Added DNC Wayne Kinney (OR) for Obama

link

[ProSense]

40. Another for Obama

5-29-08 - Added DNC Gail Rasmussen (OR) for Obama