The winning formula.

[barack the house]

http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/05/16/270/index3.html

VI. Victory, by the numbers

So which of these 17 states do I think Obama really is going to win? How does he reach 270? Taking all these demographics and long-term trends into account, and then whipping out the dartboard, yields the following assessment:

States that strongly favor Obama ("strongly" in the context of close states, that is): Minnesota, New Jersey, Oregon, Washington. That's 43 electoral votes. Add that to the safe blue 157 votes in 11 states and D.C. and Obama is at 200.

States that slightly favor Obama: Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. Another 55 votes. He's now at 255

States that strongly favor McCain: Florida, North Carolina. Their 42 electoral votes are probably going to the Republicans.

States that slightly favor McCain: Colorado, 9 votes; Missouri, 11 votes; and Virginia, 13 votes. Obama's chances are better here.

Pure toss-ups: Nevada, 5 votes; New Hampshire, 4 votes; New Mexico, 5 votes; and Ohio, 20 votes.

Clearly, and I'm being cautious, I think it's going to be a close race. If Obama wins the 255 votes in the states where he's favored, then to get to 270 he needs to choose from the following menu: 1) Win Ohio, which takes him to 275; 2) win in the West -- Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, for 274; 3) win the three N's (Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire) for 269, plus one other state; or 4) win two of the three N's and either Colorado or Virginia.

The bottom line is that 270 is achievable, provided the Democratic ticket keeps all of these 17 states in play as long as possible. And it looks like it can. Obama has the money to fight in the truly purple states and force his opponent to defend some of the redder ones. For the moment, McCain doesn't have the money to respond in kind. Obama can stretch McCain's scarcer resources. He can also improve the Democratic Party's odds of breaking through and winning its first Electoral College majority in a dozen years.

[tekisui]

1. I am so pumped we are having these convesations.

He has NM, NH and VA and CO. IMO, those are the states that will do it.

I think MO will be icing, as could one southern state. If Barr shows up, he could possibly swing NC, SC, FL , or GA.

[barack the house]

2. If you live in Virginia (as in not w. virginia) and Ohio it is time to work your heart out for Obama

These 2 states seem key to the magic equation. There is no time like the present put out DVDs USING screen recorders which I have found only work with XP. Put out mailers whatever you can before campaigning always ask if they are pro hillary or pro mccain first to avoid any nonsense to begin with and unnecessary conflict.