The Nation: Obama, Not Clinton--Leads in Popular Vote

[marmar]

Obama, Not Clinton--Leads in Popular Vote
posted by Ari Berman on 05/29/2008 @ 12:43pm



In making the increasingly improbable case for staying in the race and becoming the Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton's campaign claims that Clinton leads Barack Obama in the popular vote.

She doesn't.

According to the widely cited popular vote tally on Real Clear Politics, Obama leads Clinton by more than 450,000 votes, 16.7 million to 16.2 million when rounded. Add caucuses in Iowa, Maine, Nevada and Washington, where official vote totals have not yet been released, and Obama leads by even more.

When you add the results in Florida--where neither candidate campaigned, though Clinton's allies ran get-out-the-vote operations and Clinton visited the night of the primary--Obama still leads Clinton by 164,000 votes. Only when you include Florida and Michigan, where Obama wasn't even on the ballot, does Clinton pull ahead.

But including Michigan is patently absurd. Does anyone really believe that Clinton should receive 328,000 votes from the state and Obama should receive none? Not even West Virginia was that bad of a landslide!

Moreover, the popular vote is no more than a symbolic statistic when it comes to choosing a nominee. The Clinton campaign knew full well when the race began that delegates determine the Democratic nominee. As Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson said back in January, "this is a race for delegates." It was only when Obama starting racking up delegates at a faster pace than Clinton that the Clinton campaign started hyping the popular vote. ......(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.thenation.com/blogs/campaignmatters/324788

[slinkerwink]

1. Thank you, the Nation.

[uberblonde]

2. How amazingly arrogant..

He removed himself from the ballot, and should get delegates anyway?

Way to go, Unity movement!

[nomorenomore08]

8. He did what he was supposed to do, knowing the votes wouldn't be counted anyway.

Hillary was the one who didn't follow the rules.

[yodermon]

12. Dems have been removing themselves from the MI ballot for years

That state is perennially trying to move up its primary against party rules, and past Dem candidates have removed themselves from that primary ballot almost routinely.

Look it up.

[MadMaddie]

14. They all agreed to withdraw their names....Hillary changed

her mind.....

[populistdriven]

15. What is arrogant is to call an election with only one candidate the voice of the people, shes a puke

[Dawgs]

19. She agreed that Michigan wouldn't count. They both shouldn't get any.

Next!!

[PassingFair]

20. How amazingly uninformed...

you are.

Hillary was the arrogant one.

[D23MIURG23]

21. Everyone was expected to. Hillary didn't.

"It won't count anyway" she said.

You tell me who is arrogant.

[Cha]

24. Get a clue and then post..

Your ignorance is too visible..and don't tell me you're just spouting hilary shit.

[Barrymores Ghost]

26. Hillary agreed MI and FL shouldn't count...

...and she SHOULD get delegates?

Fuck you, fuckwitz.

[cliffordu]

30. Don't hold back, tell us how you really feel......

:rofl:

[TahitiNut]

27. He should get no 'delegates' ... and neither should she. Why? Well ...

... BECAUSE THERE AREN'T ANY FUCKING DELEGATES!

[cliffordu]

31. Are those delegates or are you just glad to see me??

[AZBlue]

28. Oh honey....give it up.

You're looking really pathetic right now, stop for your own sake.

[K Gardner]

3. Oh NOES... FACTS...!!!

[AtomicKitten]

4. Of course she doesn't.

[baldguy]

5. But ... but ... Hillary leads in the popular vote among people who voted for her!

And they're the IMPORTANT ones!

[ChairmanAgnostic]

9. I do believe that we have a winner comment here.

precisely.

[earthlover]

6. Another reason focusing on popular vote is deceiving....

Obama won more caucus states than Hillary. Caucuses simply do not get the same turnout than the same state would have if it held a primary. So if you add up the total caucus votes with the primary votes, what you really have is a conglomeration of apples and oranges. Enough so that the entire concept of a popular vote total is seriously flawed.

It all goes down to the way delegates are selected. Each state had its own rules....primary or caucus. And delegates were appropriately divvied up according to the contests in the states.

This was never supposed to be a "popular vote" thing....primaries and caucuses are simply means by which each state selectes their delegates to the national convention.

If each state had a primary, Hillary would have an arguable point....except that counting Michigan in the totals with Obama not even on the friggin ballot is patently absurd. But they don't, so Hillary is simply trying to make the most out of an impossible hand she is dealt.

[Coexist]

7. I'm always posting these things, and they just fade into oblivion.

The New Yorker said the same thing recently. The popular vote is such a difficult metric to use, because of the caucus process - there is no way to accurately measure it. Its really a silly number to cite - but the Clinton campaign is pushing it becuase its all they have at this point.

[otohara]

10. Kick for Truth

and accuracy

[Tesha]

18. When a silly number is all you have, you cite the silly number.

The Clinton's hand of cards is down to nothing;
all they have left is bluster and bluffing.

Tesha

[beac]

33. "ONE silly number, TWO silly numbers, THREE silly numbers......"

"Greetings! I am the Count. They call me the Count because I love to count things."



(anyone have Photoshop and some spare time???? ;) )

[Cha]

25. All the hilarys have at this point is Orwellian

terminology, chutzpah, and their sociopathic personalities come in real handy.

[mindwalker_i]

11. HEY!!!!!1111!!!!!1

Quit confusing the issues with facts!

Jeezus

[FrenchieCat]

13. Too bad that one has to know all of this to be able to disbelieve

Hillary...while she goes around lying to LIVs; her base.

[davidpdx]

16. Kicked and Recommended

[WillyT]

17. Big K & R !!!

:bounce::kick::bounce:

[chknltl]

22. Thank you for this. KnR and bookmarked for future use eom

[Cha]

23. Excellent, Ari Berman!

I liked this comment at the end..

"bizarre and cynical"

That pretty much sums up most of the Inevitable's campaign since last year ... from the Clintons' impersonating the sociopaths Mr & Ms Soprano in a TV ad ... to Hillary's Empress Lady Bountiful Xmas ad ... to Bosnian sniper fire & hard working whites & assassination invocations ... it's quite a record. The historians of this campaign (Carl Bernstein?) are going to have a field day with the Clintons' performance. What a legacy.

As for some polls matching HRC v. McCain 5 months from now ... 5 months ago, those same pollsters showed HRC as the inevitable nominee, hands down, slam dunk."

Posted by sloper at 05/29/2008 | warn this person

[AZBlue]

29. I don't believe in the popular vote argument for either, but da-am that's funny!

Thanks for the link!!

[muryan]

32. Math is so elitist

and apparently arrogant too

[beac]

34. Oh no! The LIBERAL media is attacking Clinton again!

Stupid, logic-loving, reality-based liberal media. :mad: