Obama's going to take Montana.

[Drunken Irishman]

I believe this and it will happen. The fact he's only 5 percentage points behind McCain, at this stage, is huge. Obama is going to take this state, he's going to compete in North Dakota, he'll take Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado and is going to be a major player out west. This is how he's going to win the general election.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/montana/election_2008_montana_presidential_election

Clinton, on the other hand, loses about as badly as Gore and Kerry did there.

I believe Obama will take Montana and if he doesn't, it's at least going to force McCain to throw more money at a once safe Republican state (as he will have to do in Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, Mississippi, North Dakota and maybe South Carolina).

[BlooInBloo]

1. Especially with Schweitzer as VP. :)))))

[thoughtcrime1984]

2. He'd win by double digits with the popular Governor.

Too bad it's only 3 EV's, but I think Schweitzer is an intriguing possibilty because of his background, nonetheless.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. 3 EV's aren't much, but combined with NV, CO , NM and Iowa and this election won't be in doubt.

[BlooInBloo]

5. That's the point of Schweitzer or Richardson as running mate....

to stretch the map horizontally, rather than vertically as is traditional.

Go west, young man!

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Yes, Obama is throwing the Gore-Kerry strategy out the window.

[XemaSab]

16. I think Brian could bring in not only Montana

but he could help us with virtually the entire West... if not for the win, at least make a lot of states like Alaska and Idaho that were formerly totally safe for the Republicans into money-suckers for them.

[MercutioATC]

20. I know Republicans that say they'd vote for an Obama/Schweitzer ticket.

The typical white rural American isn't as much Republican as they're wary of what they perceive as "liberal elitist Democrats" who want to tell them what to do.

Schweitzer would attract these people in droves.

[ij9800]

4. We can dream, but I doubt it.

The elction will be as tight as 2000 & 2004... perhaps different determining states, but just as tight.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. I disagree, I think Obama clears 300 electoral votes.

[ij9800]

8. I'll bet the winner wins with 271-272 votes... TIGHT

[Major Hogwash]

11. It's within reach, that much is for sure. As long as McCain keeps defending Bush's war.

McClellan's book wipes out any doubt that they used propaganda to start the war.

[John Q. Citizen]

9. Montana is an uphill fight but it is winnable. Not going to be easy, but it is possible.

[grantcart]

10. This is why for the Wigand Index we turned away from the traditional Ohio, Florida

to one that included Western and Southern States.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6180124to

Want another shocker - look at Arizona.

Arizona is the fastest growing state in the Union. 30% of the state represents new residents since 2000.

Senator McCain is only polling 50% there with Obama 10% and undecideds about 10%.

If Barr can take off 5% from these Western states they all come into play.

Nothing would have a more disastorous impact on McCain's campaign - especially his fund raising

than to have to spend money to try and compete in Arizona.

Michelle was in Arizona this week.

It will be interesting to see if more surrogates go to Arizona - especially a VP nominee.


Obama leads McCain by 30 points in Illinois.

[Major Hogwash]

12. Damn! That is really interesting about Arizona.

All the Republicans are having a hard time raising money this year.
Even the Republican Congressmen here are having to forego help from the national GOP party.

[medicswife]

13. I grew up in Montana

and the day that John Tester took out Conrad Burns was a happy, happy day for me. I think that Obama has a really good shot at the state.

Ron Paul's statement awhile back that he prefers Obama's foreign policy over McCain's even got some of my typically Republican minded family members on board with Barack.

[featherman]

14. McCain is a terrible candidate and worse campaigner

It's quite possible he will be viewed as a silly old fool and a laughing stock before this campaign is over... that should change a few state projections.

Kerry had a much, much less efficient and competent campaign staff and plan than Obama does and he still came within 180,000 stolen votes in Ohio of unseating a sitting President whose national favorable rating was still hovering in the 50% range at that time.

McCain does not have the 2004 Bush advantage of either incumbency or massive money edge and his disadvantages going into this GE season are enormous.

The polls will start reflecting this no later than September.

[AllentownJake]

15. That happens all out media assault on Obama

Simply because they want it to be close for ratings.

[featherman]

19. Mostly agree that is the normal pattern but it didn't help Dole much in '96

[aquarius dawning]

17. Is he gonna raise up a crop of dental floss?

Inside joke.

[muryan]

18. Obama wins because he forces Mccain to spend money he can't afford to spend

in states where he doesn't want to spend it. Throws the campaign off a little bit when you have to run ads in Mississippi and send operatives to south carolina to try and suppress the black vote