Obama's REAL Magic Number is 94.5 and Needs 2147.5 Delegates Total

[WeDidIt]

Harold Ickes in the RBC meeting, and the Clinton campaign a few minutes after that meeting closed, signaled loud and clear they do not accept the 59 delegates awarded to Obama from Michigan as legitimate.

You can argue whatever you want to argue about that stance, but that is where we are. They are not going to concede on any number that includes those 59 delegates with a half vote each. They have moved the goal posts and will take it to the convention under any circumstances that does not achieve this requirement

So here's where we are. Obama will not secure the nomination prior to the convention without reaching a total delegate count they would find legitimate.

That number is now 2147.5 for Obama and 2118 for Clinton. That's how it is. They are holding the conventino, the nomination, and the white house hostage over this.

The saddest bit about the whole thing is it's ben reported that the vast majority of remaining super delegates don't want to endorse until Clinton concedes.

We're in Catch-22 territory now.

Sadly, we are screwed unless a good lot of Super Delegates who have showed no spine to this point suddenly grow a spine and endorse.

[tokenlib]

1. Barack will get to that number--on the 4th if not before...n/t

[lisa58]

2. so what?

...Ickes is using a lawyers trick and it won't work.

[MannyGoldstein]

3. They'd Take It To The Convention No Matter What

They're working for 2012 - to destroy Obama, and build a base of Archie Bunkers and Geraldine Ferraros. They want to keep working at that as long as they can.

[jwirr]

24. 2012? I don't know about you but I expect Obama to have 8 years

in office just like her bill did.

[MannyGoldstein]

26. They're Trying To Get McSame Elected

They figure he'll be a great target in 2012. But to get McBush elected, they need to destroy Obama - hence the current garbage.

[jwirr]

31. They must think we in the Democratic Party have very short memories.

[sfam]

4. You forget Pelosi and Reed. They can cause serious damage to..

house and senate members who don't select. Moreso, they WILL cause serious damage to those who hold out. I wouldn't be at all surprised if phone calls went out to the DNC members still uncommitted that their future prospects in the party will be in jeaprody if they don't select someone soon.

[phrigndumass]

5. It's 2,118. Don't let them pull your leg.

:hi:

[WeDidIt]

6. That's the official number

but he has to shut down any possibility of it going to the convention because contentious conventions are always losers.

[phrigndumass]

15. Even if it were 94.5, we've got it in the bag, for certain

Check out this post to see where 67 of your 94.5 delegates will come from:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6203020

Besides those 67, I'm sure at least 25 elected superdelegates will endorse Obama in the next few days. It's imminent.

Nothing to worry about. It's in the bag.

[WeDidIt]

20. I'm hoping it happens by Wednesday night.

[RNdaSilva]

25. It is 2118...

and it is not going to change. Forgot, is 2117 a possibility? Who cares?

It is over. Relax!

Tuesday night, or Wednesday morning, Senator Obama will be the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party. He will more than likely announce it Tuesday night in the Republican's back yard...the home of their convention.

It will not go to the credential's committee nor to the convention. If so...meaningless.

Ickes is yesterday's news...tomorrow.

[ecdab]

7. Don't play follow the goal posts with Hillary - it's a waste of time.

[Gore1FL]

8. The DNC ruling favored Clinton

And they are still complaining... Imagine that.

[FrenchieCat]

9. I don't take my marching orders from Ickes! But thank you

for giving the Cult of Hillary ideas! Noble of you! :hi:

[WeDidIt]

12. The point being

Once he reaches 2147.5, they have no argument.

[John Q. Citizen]

18. If thre Clintons not having an argument is your goal, you will never reach it. They will simply

modify, or come up with a new argument.

The will decide not to recognize Minnesota, or Wisconsin or whatever.

You seem to be under the illusion that the Clintons are playing ethically. They aren't. They believe achieving power, by any means

is the only imperative.

[Honeycombe8]

10. The opposition doesn't have to condede. It's been decided. They can appeal....

and they have reserved the right to do so. But it won't change anything, it looks like.

BTW...the end # is 2118, I think?

[Elidor]

11. Was I hallucinating earlier today?

When I thought Bill Clinton said that Hillary would accept the decision of the RBC? Because I really thought I read that story. Someone tell me I'm not just totally fucking crazy here.

[WeDidIt]

14. I think they decided to let Bill be the liar on this one

One of them had to be a liar about it, and it's so much easier sending Bill out to lie.

[blonndee]

21. "They decided?" Bill IS a liar.

[housewolf]

34. I think that was specific to the Florida compromise

They have been pretty adamant about not giving Obama any MI delegates lately.

[Elidor]

37. Ah. Thanks for clearing that up

I spent fifteen minutes looking for it, but couldn't find it. The board is moving very fast today.

[grantcart]

13. your 100% wrong. The number is 2117 and Obama is now 64

no Catch - 22.

If Hillary persues a delegate challenge at the convention she will be laughed out of the convention.

Ickes can reserve all of the rights he wants but the fact is those rights are held by the Michigan State Democratic Party and if they are happy with the resolution - and they are - there will be no challenge.

[jwirr]

27. I think you have a good point there - states have the right to appeal

at the convention but I am not sure that a candidate can appeal for a state.

[grantcart]

32. no a delegate from that state would have to put together a minority

proposal that would have to show that it had popular support from his/her home state, or why would the committe bother with it.

I am sure that Hillary could get one of her delegates to jump the shark but the nail was Florida. When they decided unanamously to agree then it left it a single state challenge.

[4themind]

16. I think it's just to give the appearnce of a fight to keep puerto rico in play IMO

That's their last big hope to go ahead in the popular vote even if MI is left out. I think by next friday he'll have the delegates he needs even if it's 94.5 Ultimately they can either lose now , and salvage career jobs within obama's administration and face relatively reduced enmity in their attempts to get them elsewhere; Or they can lose at the convention and risked being ostracized by the majority of the party, and graver threats to their political futures. At that point it could be reliably said that hillary did EVERY thing to take down obama, that's quite a different animal than leaving after the last official voting, which a large group of super dels are also willing to do. And I think those different situations will result in different consequences.

It's really going to come down to whether they can realistically asses their own self-interest using risk analysis because if they can I think they will bow out. Ickes will be finished if he's seen as ruining TWO presidential elections(carters as well), he has a family and a life to live as well,and loyalty seems to be a one way street with the clintons, he may have to look after himself at SOME point. If he doesn't he will deserve his own demise.

[OzarkDem]

17. Why should Obama get MI delegates?

He wasn't on the ballot. That was his choice.

[FlaGranny]

19. ....

:cry:

[WeDidIt]

22. By all rights, MI should have ZERO delegates

They broke the rules.

[jwirr]

29. He wasn't on the ballot because of a deal that Hillary agreed with

until she started to lose. I the rule had not been made in the first place he would have been. Him and others.

[BearSquirrel2]

30. It was Harold Ickes choice to strip 100% of delegates from Michigan ...

Why should Ickes be concerned about vote allotment in a state where he voted to remove their representation completely. The proposal was made by the state party and accepted by the committee overturning Ickes (and by proxie Clinton's) vote to have ZERO representation from Michigan.

[housewolf]

36. Because the MI state Democratic Party was able to agree that it was a fair allocation of delegates

That's the reason why. It was their proposal that the DNC adopted. It's what the state party agreed to do.

[RichardRay]

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[housewolf]

23. You seem to operating on the assumption that the Clinton campaign controls the DNC

including the Rules Committee and the Credentials committee at the convention... and I just don't think that's so at this point

[AtomicKitten]

28. It's over. The goalposts have been cast in cement.

[RNdaSilva]

33. Or,

returned to their original location. A position of hopelessness.

The field grew from 100 yards to 200 yards and back to the legal 100 yards. However, team Obama is now 1st and goal with a fraction of an inch to go. Calling a QB sneak against a weak D.

[PretzelWarrior]

35. I just hope nothing like happened to RFK happens to Hillary

it would be terrible for her and the party.