It's Not Over

[grantcart]

The selection of the nominee for President of the Democratic Party is over. It was over in Wisconsin and sealed in Texas

The election of President has just begun.

And it is completely fluid..

Using the numbers at http://www.pollster.com/ which uses a poll of poll average only 7 states have more than 55% for either candidate.

Those states are

McCain Electoral Votes 34
TN 58
AL 59
KY 57
AR 58

Obama Electoral Votes 28
HI 61
IL 60
VT 63


There are alot of states that are thought to be safe for either side that while one candidate has a large lead the candidate in the lead still is polling just over 50%. This means that not only there is a large undecided vote, but suggests that the numbers are soft all around.

In Arizona for example, McCain is only polling at 50%. Yes it is true that Obama is polling around 40% but by any metric you have to worry if your candidate is only polling at 50% in their home state, especially at a time when his opponent is in the middle of a bruising primary battle. In super Republican Idaho McCain is only polling at 52%.

Many other states considered to be safe are still polling at 52% for the leader or less.

States where the leading candidate has more than a 10% lead (the leading candidates percent is next to it):

McCain
Electoral Votes 120

WY 54 TX 53 TN 58 SD 48 OK 62 AL 59 GE 54 ID 52 KS 52 KY 57 LA 53 NE 53 AR 58

Obama
Electoral Votes 170

CA 52 CT 52 HI 61 IL 60 ME 51 MD 51 MN 52 NY 51 OR 52 RI 53 VT 63 WA 52 WI 48



States where the candidate leads with less than 10%:

McCain
Electoral Votes 80
AK 50 AZ 51 FL 47 MT 48 MI 49 MS 52 NV 46 NC 49

Obama
Electoral Votes 55
CO 48 DE 50 IA 47 NJ 48 PA 46



States where the margin is within the MOE and their electoral vote:

IN 11
NM 5
VA 13
MI 17
ND 3
NH 4
OH 20

Obama would win with all of the states leaning to him Ohio and any two of IN/VA/MI - this is without Florida.


The numbers show that there are very few truely 'safe' states. A mildly successful third party candidacy from either Barr or Nader could have a very significant effect - even a 5% showing in a number of states would be very significant. It is highly unlikely that left weaning Democrats would consider Nader again after 2000, but there are a lot of disaffected Republicans who might be likely to go Barr to register their protest at the Republican Party.

Right now only 7 states appear that they have decided and 43 could still go either way.

It's just begining.

[helderheid]

1. We must make sure there are no caging lists this go around.

[Benhurst]

2. How? I remember reading months ago that the Repubs were hard

at work on them.

Have the leaders of our party -- Pelosi, Reid, Clinton, OBama -- done anything these past two years since we retook Congress to prevent the third presidential election in a row from being stolen?

[billyoc]

3. 50% in AZ!

:rofl:

[eleny]

4. Is there time for a nap?!!1!

[phrigndumass]

5. K/R ... Hopefully we won't have to run with a cannonball chained to our legs

Just to add, we still have a huge amount of work to do.

Let's not look at this and be complacent:

[grantcart]

6. exactly

to the question which would you rather have? A great job or a great family? The answer is both.


Which would you rather have TX or FL? Both

Which would you rather have AZ or NM? Both

Its time to get greedy.

[phrigndumass]

7. Just heard on MSNBC that Obama plans to spend some major bucks campaigning in ...

TEXAS.

We shouldn't settle for less. There will be enough campaign cash to run everywhere.

[grantcart]

8. That is what is going to make it so interesting

My suspicion is that the Obama campaign is going to take the Grant/Lee battle strategy by creating the longest possible front line possible and keep extending battle line so McCain has to keep spending his money and thinning his line and resources. McCain seems to be having a massive problem in fund raising. The Bush/McCain fund raising trip in AZ seemed to be a massive failure.

[phrigndumass]

9. Making headway there would spread to other states as well ...

Like Louisiana. I can't see Louisianans voting for a repub president this time, not after Katrina.

[RichardRay]

21. Moe for president! But only if he has Curly on the ticket!!! n/t

[VotesForWomen]

10. yeah, except O is not the nominee. you forgot that.

[grantcart]

12. yes quite so and tomorrow isn't here either but I am willing to bet that

tomorrow the sun is going to first appear on the eastern horizon.

Just because a team has a 30 point lead with only 1 minute left in a football game doesn't mean that we don't know who the winner is.

If in your delusional mind you think that Hillary has any chance to win the nomination then you should go to Intrade and buy Hillary shares because there are a whole bunch of folks who have worthless Hillary shares and cannot find a single brain dead investor to buy a share and they would love to sell their shares for anything before they become useless.

You must be aware of the fact that I have been consistently posting threads urging people to stop and come here to try and provoke a fight. I absolutely refuse to assist you in your public self humiliation. Any further attempts that you undertake to humiliate yourself will have to be done by yourself I am not going to provide the facts and logic that assist in your destroying your last threads of self respect. There are many other Obama supporters that will help you make a fool out of yourself and you can find them easily.

[hfojvt]

11. you missed one, apparently there are 8 states where it's decided

Oklahoma at 62. Unless that was a typo.

"McCain
Electoral Votes 120

WY 54 TX 53 TN 58 SD 48 OK 62 AL 59 GE 54 ID 52 KS 52 KY 57 LA 53 NE 53 AR 58"


Also, I do not see West Virginia in those lists. And I bet DC is decided for Obama. Not a state, but as many electoral votes as ND, SD, VT, or WY.

[grantcart]

13. Your right on both OK and WV. I am sure about DC but left that out because

we don't have any polls there.

Thanks for the editors' eye.

[AZBlue]

14. "In Arizona for example, McCain is only polling at 50%." LOVE THIS!

And we haven't even begun the fight for Obama here in AZ. I'm hopeful I tell you - I actually think we have a shot of getting AZ to go for Obama. It makes me giddy!! :D

[grantcart]

15. The importance of dwelling on Arizona is this: if it becomes widely known

that Senator McCain is having trouble maintaining a large lead in Arizona and that it is 'in play' he would have substantial problems raising any additional significant campaign money. His campaign would be mortally crippled from the outset.

[TexasObserver]

16. Agreed. The Pundits will chew it on it like a dog with a fresh bone.

[chill_wind]

20. I have to think so, too. That would be glaringly impossible to ignore

except for, perhaps, at Faux.... and perhaps not even then.

[goclark]

17. Good point!

[grantcart]

18. buy your champaigne yet?

[goclark]

23. It is chilled and waiting for Obama

to Sock it to her! :)

Why do I keep thinking that she is continuing this to help McCain?

Why can't I get that out of my head? :shrug:

[AZBlue]

25. Because it's true?

I have a bottle of Veuve Clicquot that was given to me, chilling right now, just waiting.....

[goclark]

26. Veuve Cliquot is my all time favorite

I think I'll buy a bottle for Tuesday night. :party:

[AZBlue]

27. We can have an e-toast!

[goclark]

28. It's a deal when the results come

:bounce:

[grantcart]

22. go take a peek here and go to the end of the thread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6204553&mesg_id=6218281

[AZBlue]

24. You're very right.

I believe I'll be calling and e-mailing a few Dem leaders here in AZ tomorrow with that very idea if you don't mind. Let's start a little media push. And perhaps the campaign here should re-start very soon.

[seasat]

19. There are so many states potentially in play for us this time.

I was looking at the map at electoral-vote.com and there are states that are now red but have conditions we can capitalize on.

Nevada with the messy divorce and scandals from their Repub governor, we should be able to turn this state blue.

Alaska has both Young and Stevens involved in scandal and we might can tie John McCain to them.

MS is closer than expected and with a big GOTV for African Americans, we might put into play.

Bob Barr is from GA and might siphon some votes from McCain. Also GA has a large African American population.

SC, NC are also close and might be flipped.

The only states where we have very little chances (Currently but with Repub scandals popping up regularly. it could change) are Utah, Oklahoma, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia.

[grantcart]

29. And these polls are being taken during the Democrats bitter primary fight

The Republicans already have kissed and made up.