With wins in Montana and South Dakota, Obama Will Win the Popular Vote

[MadBadger]

There are two ways for which the popular vote can be counted.

1. With Michigan divided based the delegate split decided by the RBC

2. Without Michigan at all

According to the first scenario,adding in the estimates from Iowa, Nevada, Washington, and Maine, and Michigan where Hillary would receive 320,418 and Obama would net 273,980.

Obama: 18,079,644
Hillary: 18,084,587

With South Dakota and Montana, Obama will take the lead and win the popular vote.

In the second more fair scenario

Hillary: 17,764,169
Obama: 17,805,574

With South Dakota and Montana, Obama will sustain his Popular vote victory.

Hillary now has no metric to use anymore to SDs.

Though none of this really matters, because neither does popular vote. I based my numbers off of real clear politics.

[Condem]

1. I do believe in the promised land.

It'll be over Wednesday. Guaranteed.

[Faygo Kid]

2. None of this matters anymore. He will be the nominee Wednesday morning.

The Supers are going to nuke Hillary in a heartbeat once the primaries are over.

She will no longer be a figure on the national stage, and she has done it to herself. She gives one last speech at the convention, and then she is finished. Hopefully, New York will find a better senator, and she will retire.

[cliffordu]

30. FUCK I HOPE SO.

Thanks, I needed that.

[woolldog]

3. There are many many ways to count the popular vote, not just two

For example, for Texas, do you count the caucus votes and the primary vote? If so how do you weight them?

For the states that had both a caucus and a primary (like Washington and Nebraska) do you count caucus results and primary results?

There are so many ways to count the popular vote it's a meaningless metric.

The reason why we use delegates and not raw populat vote is so we don't disenfranchise those who live in caucus states. Their votes deserve to count too. Isn't it ironic that the Clinton campaign that has tried to present themselves as sooo in favor of franchising everyone and counting all the votes is de facto disenfranchising caucus states with her selective popular vote count?

[MadBadger]

4. For Washington and Nebraska, you only count the caucuses, because thats where the delegatesare.

[woolldog]

9. Then should the texas caucus votes count since delegates were

at stake there?

[MadBadger]

11. As somebody else stated, you have to vote in the primary to vote in the caucus

It wouldnt make sense to count voters twice.

[woolldog]

15. isn't "counting votes twice" exatly what the Texas primary/caucus did?

edit: actually counting some votes twice and others once, since not everyone who voted in the primary, caucused....

[Diamonique]

6. For Texas you only count the primary

because you had to have voted in the primary in order to participate in the caucus. So counting caucus votes isn't necessary, as those people already voted in the primary.

[sandnsea]

20. There isn't any way to count a popular vote

because caucus goers don't always vote for their first choice candidate. There is no popular vote. Period. Just stop pretending there is.

[woolldog]

25. did you read my entire post? n/t

[FlyingSquirrel]

5. He's already in the lead and I can prove it.

Incontrovertible proof that Obama wins the Popular Vote

[Oregone]

7. There is NO POPULAR VOTE

It doesn't exist. It means nothing. Its an irrelevant non-existant metric. I don't care who you support, or if he/she is laying claim to it. Let it die allready.

[Condem]

8. It was over after North Carolina, hnmnf

Some will say Wisconsin. She had all the momentum going into NC. What a fuckin back breaker.The popular vote doesn't matter. Ask Al Gore.

[MadBadger]

10. I say it was over after Pennsylvania when she didnt blow him out there.

[Zynx]

14. If she had totally dominated Indiana and kept NC close she might have had

something, but not much.

[Condem]

16. VP, hnmnf?

[MadBadger]

18. Hillary?

[Condem]

21. I'm with you.

We need to unite. She is one tough,fucking lady. Ultimate respect. Some Obamans say a bad mix. He would never be able to handle the Clintons. Well, if he can't, he shouldn't be president.

[MadBadger]

24. Oh no...No way. Not Hillary

I thought you were asking me if I thought Hillary was a good choice. She may help with democrats, but I think she hurts him with Independents and crossover Republicans. I want a VP that is willing to run on Obama's message, and I dont think she will. Also, Hillary has said too many damaging things to Obama's credibility I believe to be on the ticket. The best situation would be for her to announce that she doesnt want to be VP. My picks are Jim Webb, Janet Napolitano, and Bill Richardson.

[Condem]

26. Do not agree, hnmnf.

How many voted for Hillary? Yeah, a lot were crossovers. Still, 17 million. We'll need a majority of these. I don't give one fuckin rats ass that they don't get along. I want to WIN!

[MadBadger]

28. As do I, and I think there are other better options.

[Bensthename]

12. Wow, who could have ever guessed it would be that close?

Amazing.

[my3boyz]

13. I know popular vote does not matter but I want Obama to win it so she can shut the hell up! nt

[GoesTo11]

17. You forgot one important scenario

Michigan - Votes for Hillary count for Hillary, Votes for Uncommitted don't count

Iowa, Nevada, Washington, and Maine - caucus don't count at all

Texas - caucus votes don't count

Nebraska and Washington - Beauty contest primary votes don't count

Puerto Rico and other non GE territories - count


Isn't this obviously the right way to do it?



In case you couldn't tell - :sarcasm:

[sandnsea]

19. Idiot and Insane. There is NO popular vote

It isn't real. It doesn't exist. Stop perpetuating this bald faced lie.

[krawhitham]

23. Yes we know that, but the J6P voter believes in it

[krawhitham]

22. She gets all the MI votes, he gets none by her gorilla math

I've known loan sharks who are more forgiving

[Honeycombe8]

27. There are 4 states that Obama won that didn't issue pop. vote nos. How're you handling those?

Just wondering. No one mentions those much these days, but they should.

Four states. Obama won all of them. Can those votes be estimated?

[MadBadger]

29. I'm using the RCP estimates

The states are Iowa, Nevada, Washington, and Maine. They give him an extra 110,000 votes out of those three.

[Honeycombe8]

31. What is RCP? nt

[jenmito]

32. RealClearPolitics. n/t

[Honeycombe8]

34. Thx. nt

[MadBadger]

33. RealClearPolitics.com