OMG!!-----If DU Hillary Supporters don't support Obama--we're in TROUBLE!!!!

[PretzelWarrior]

I see up above on the home screen that there are 121,000 registered users. Now, I KNOW some of these are people who have multiple screen names. I don't know if that number includes people who've been tombstoned, but I'll assume it doesn't.

Please let me know if my assumptions are wrong, but I am discounting the number by 10%. So that would be 109,000 unique users. I happen to think the number of unique users is much lower...but anyway for the sake of argument--109,000. So let's say 50% of the DU population are Hillary supporters. Again, I think I'm being incredibly generous, but even if that number is right. We would be looking at 55,000 Hillary supporters who might be ticked off about the turn of events. Will 100% of them refuse to vote for the nominee? Doubtful. Let's knock that down another 10%. We're saying somewhere south of 50,000 people AT BEST!! will not support Barack Obama if he's the nominee.

Understand that as I live my "real" life and spend time here in "DU" life, I know how motivated, engaged, and activist the subset of people here at DU really is, and I don't think this population in any way closely mirrors what the body politic at large thinks and does.

So....... even if all of my generous assumptions are correct, we can probably survive if those approximately 50,000 decide not to support Obama. I can imagine far more than that number crossing over from GOP and voting for Obama just in the states of New York or California.

I discussed this earlier in GD forum and had some comments to it. The link to that post is here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x3371695

It was locked...and I thought it might be since it was about primaries...but I didn't have a new post available for GD-P until now.

Soo.....lol. let me know what you think.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

1. Maths!

:*

[cliffordu]

2. OMFG!! Not the MATHS???!!?!?!??!??!

[PretzelWarrior]

4. u get kudos from me just for your Napolean quote

[flowomo]

3. I think that's 121,000 since DU began....

and includes everyone who ever registered under a unique name at any time. It is not a count of "active" DUer's. I always thought that the number of truly active posters was closer to maybe 1,500 and maybe three times that many who lurk enough to matter.

[stillcool]

5. and when you look at..

Kos..it puts a completely different spin on things.

[PretzelWarrior]

6. you are right

fascinating reading on electoral math and also Clinton's retarded "popular vote" meme:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/6/1/16747/37393/979/526838

[avenger64]

7. Well, I think there may be a flaw there ...

... if Hillary supporters are 50 percent, then Obama supporters are only 50 percent as well - so he only picks up 50,000 votes from DU.

I think what you would have to worry about is whether the acrimony between the 2 camps is part of a larger trend that extends to the democratic electorate at large.

But there's no telling, really, until November. A lot can happen between now and then - minds can change either way. Cheers.

[PretzelWarrior]

10. and I'm saying from the past that there is no way DU represents larger trends

otherwise, Howard Dean would have been our nominee in 2004, we would have alrady impeached Bush, and Kucinich would have gained around 10% of the vote in both 2004 and 2008.

[Hobarticus]

8. People are just blowing off steam

Someone just called HRC supporters "terrorists" in another thread, it's easy to take things a little too personally.

I think anyone who'd hang around DU is smart enough and informed enough to know what's at stake, come November.

[rwheeler31]

9. Chuck forget the numbers.

[PretzelWarrior]

11. what does that mean?

can't see your image.

[rwheeler31]

12. A few of you math guys are dreamy.