Real Clear Politics O up on Pledged delegates 1736/1620, down on vote w/ H at 48.1/47.3

[papau]

REAL CLEAR POLITICS ELECTION 2008
Democrats Obama-Clinton Spread
Total Delegates 2065 - 1910 Obama + 155 needed 2118
Super Delegates 329 - 290 Obama + 39
Pledged Delegates 1736 - 1620 Obama + 116
Popular Vote 48.1 - 48 Obama +0.1
Popular Vote (w/MI) 47.3 - 48.1 Clinton +0.8
Nat'l RCP Average 51.0 - 42.0 Obama +9.0
Upcoming Contests
General Election McCain-Obama McCain-Clinton
National Obama +0.7 Clinton +1.8
Pennsylvania Obama +5.8 Clinton +11.7
Ohio Obama +1.3 Clinton +8.3
Wisconsin Obama +2.0 McCain +3.4
Virginia McCain +1.3 McCain +10.4
Florida McCain +8.3 Clinton +3.0
California Obama +12.6 Clinton +12.8



http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/01/puerto.rico/index.html

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (CNN) -- <snip>Clinton won 68 percent of the vote compared with Obama's 32 percent. Her vote tally was 263,120; his was 121,458.<snip>

In the Puerto Rico primary, Clinton swept Obama in every major demographic group, including groups Obama generally wins, such as younger voters and higher-income voters, according to CNN's exit polls.

[anonymous171]

1. PR is not a state.

[rug]

4. A primary is not a General Election.

[Colobo]

5. Obama is the nominee.

[rug]

7. Obama is not the President.

[bhikkhu]

23. Ketchup is not a vegetable

just sayin'

[scheming daemons]

2. Clinton Campaign in December: "The only metric that counts is delegates."

[papau]

25. In the Obama earned delegates is 59"given"him by DNC and 16 Edwards-lead is really well under a 100

[anonymous171]

3. If we had an apple eating contest and you ate 5 oranges along with 5 apples

and I at 7 apples, I would still win.

[cliffordu]

9. And whoever ate the oranges and apples

would have the MAJOR shits for days...

Oh, wait, they already do.....

[msallied]

17. That is the most awesome analogy thingie I've read in awhile.

I think I'll be using it in the future. lol

[anonymous171]

18. Go right ahead! I'd be insulted if you didn't!

:hi:

[kirby]

20. But what if...

Apples are caucuses and Oranges are Primaries. The analogy could be twisted by someone like Harold Ickes. ;)

[DJ13]

6. Why count Puerto Rico's votes if they dont count the other US territories votes?

Figures can lie, and liars can figure.

[cliffordu]

10. Shits 'n giggles. To keep the subnormal guessing.

[madfloridian]

8. Look at the states you have to exclude. This is unreal how this stuff keeps on.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x3372823

[papau]

11. Real Clear politics is source - the caucus addition gains O 112,000, Mich uncommitted gains 236000

[anonymous171]

12. "This is a race for delegates"-Howard Wolfson

[madfloridian]

13. You can't do that. That is just ridiculous.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x3372823

[rocktivity]

14. Should Puerto Rico and the other territories be included in the vote total

if they won't be voting in the GE?

:headbang:
rocknation

[CakeGrrl]

15. More popular vote cherry-picking

You picked the most favorable RCP scenario for Clinton, which is to give Obama 0 votes in MI instead of allocating the "Undecided" AND not including caucus states.

The only way Clinton can come out ahead is to pretend the caucus votes don't count and to pretend that Obama would really have gotten 0 votes in a valid MI primary.

That won't fly.

And it doesn't have to, since it's only the delegates that matter anyway.

[papau]

29. Obama wants us to accept wild ass guesses for caucus states that do not report vote count

[Swamp Rat]

16. Don't forget Neptune and Uranus.

It's not easy being green. :D

[nonobadfish]

19. Do you honestly feel ok about making that claim even though you know it is flawed?

Do you really believe Obama would have gotten 0 votes in Michigan?

[papau]

30. "uncommitted" is a legitimate category - and pulling out of Mich was a way to minimize expected Hill

win

[nonobadfish]

21. One more thing...the RBC declared Michigan's primary didn't count. That's why RCP separated it.

[papau]

27. but the 59 DNC gift and the 16 Edwards are called Obama earned delegates? LOL

[Kittycat]

22. You're using incorrect/ flawed data - change your OP.

[papau]

28. And what is the correct data if RCP is incorrect?

[Occam Bandage]

24. Says there he's up 0.1 on popular vote.

[papau]

26. Top of page left hand side - the post is a cut and paste - shows +0.8 Hillary

Game is to replace Washington State primary with its 4 point spread by the caucus spread of near 20 points, the award the Mich "uncommitted" that by DNC rule must be counted as "uncommitted" - then do some creative math with caucus state - ignore media statements as to caucus vote and pull some numbers out of your ass (4 states do not report any caucus vote data)- this is worth 112,000 for the caucus and 236000 for Mich - not enough to change anything but the math can be fun as long as you are willing to get REAL creative with your wild ass guess for caucus margin.

But you are correct - Obama will claim he is the popular choice no doubt.