THE MATH Daily Widget – Monday, June 2 – Wigand +0.00 – Total +0.00

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH Daily Widget – Monday, June 2 – Wigand +0.00 – Total +0.00








Our indices saw nice gains over the weekend, and hold those gains into today. A new poll in Louisiana shows it as a weak state for McCain now, giving Obama a chance at it in the fall. Right next door in Mississippi, Obama is within 6 points of McCain. These are good signs for Obama's 50-state strategy this year. Massachusetts continues to poll very strongly for Obama.

Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

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TRACKING



^ The WEA Index is showing a nice, steady pace. That's the way we like it.



^ Although none of our swing states showed changes in trading since yesterday, it's good to see the WEA Total hovering above what it had been last week.



^ 538.com's calculation increases since yesterday, while EV.com's total stays flat. My own projection for electoral votes increased by four today, due to an increase in strength of projection. The new Louisiana poll replaced an outdated poll with high undecideds, which increased the strength of projection. All three indices continue to show an Obama win in the fall.


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^ This map is not a prediction. It is a map of the states which are currently either polling or trading blue. :D


Sources:
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
RCP Average

[phrigndumass]

1. Off to work kick

Enjoy your day! :D

[mod mom]

2. always glad to recommend! always appreciative of your efforts!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

5. Thanks mod mom!

:hi:

[fight4my3sons]

3. k&r

missed ya again going out the door ;-) have a good day!

[phrigndumass]

6. The Truman Show ...

"Good morning, good afternoon and good evening!" :D

[myrna minx]

4. K&R. I like the trending.

I believe we can expect a spike at the end of this week when Obama become official the presumptive nominee. It's delicious to know that McCain is actually going to have to spend time and money in states like Arizona and Texas to seal the deal with his own home state and one of Bush's home states. :toast:

[phrigndumass]

7. A spike will be nice!

Even if it's slow and steady, it is definitely trending upwards. :toast:

[grantcart]

8. Wednesday will be a good day to test the indicators

I think that when the love fest breaks out there are going to be some real surprises.

[phrigndumass]

9. "Love fest" lol ... I hope you're right!

I'm hoping to see a chart line erection! lol, a graph boner. schwing!

It might take a few days for the polls to catch up, but it's definitely going to be fun to watch.

[Demeter]

10. Approaching 300 Territory--Get Those Noses Lined Up and Ready

At the reception after the nose-rubbing, crow will be served. (Not referring to Jim Crow--as I'm not hep enough to do it properly--perhaps someone else could do it with the right phrasing so as to not set off WW3?).

[phrigndumass]

11. When it crosses 300, I'll do my best immitation of Sally :)

... when she met Harry. :D

Crow is great with soy sauce, served on a bed of arugula. mmmmmm ...

[cabbage08]

12. great analysis

and a vote for recommend

[phrigndumass]

18. Thanks!

:hi:

[cabbage08]

13. self delete

[cabbage08]

14. another self delete

sticky button

[Radio_Lady]

15. Hi Phrigndumass --

Thanks so much for your birthday wishes...

So sweet of you!

Your picture reveals a really cute guy -- and you absolutely look like someone I know or have seen.

I just can't place who!

No idea -- maybe a former boyfriend from my youth? Oh well, I'm probably old enough to be your Grandma!

I've never been to Springfield, Illinois -- have you ever been to Springfield, Vermont -- where my ex-husband and his second wife had a small counseling business? Or to Springfield, Massachusetts (where I went occasionally as an insurance investigator in the late 1970s)? Maybe you looked like your own grandfather who might have crossed paths with me? Just a guess... I guess! :loveya: :loveya:

Mind-bending!

Peace, love and happiness,

RL

[grantcart]

16. huh? how did you figure out it was her BDay?

[Radio_Lady]

17. Grantcart, there's no mystery. I posted this to the DU Lounge last weekend:

It's in my journal -- Permalink:

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/Radio_Lady/247

Up Close and Personal -- with lots of "Vintage" Photos from my life. Check it out if you wish.

Thanks for your comment and your work on THE MATH.

Cordially,

Radio Lady

[phrigndumass]

19. Nah, I'm old enough to be your ... "brother" :)

43 ... my twin sister and I are the last of the litter, and we have a brother and a sister in their mid-60's. My grandparents all lived their lives in Sweden, I'm first-generation-born American. I've been to Springfield, Missouri :D

I hope you had a wonderful birthday! :party: