Ready for a laugh?-New ARG polls have Obama up 4 in MT/Clinton up 26 in South Dakota

[Politics_Guy25]

ROFL. Arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. The pirates are at it again, I have no clue what ARG is doing, Just wanted to pass this along for entertainment purposes.

Http://www.americanresearchgroup.com

June 2, 2008 - Montana Democratic Primary Preference

Montana
Democrats May 31-June 1

Clinton 44%
Obama 48%
Undecided 8%

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 56% to 35% among men (45% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 52% to 41%.

Obama leads 49% to 45% among voters age 18 to 49 (44% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Obama leads 48% to 43% among voters age 50 and older.

26% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 15% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.

For details, click on the R or D for each state in the column on the left under 2008 Presidential Polls.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



June 2, 2008 - South Dakota Democratic Primary Preference

South Dakota
Democrats May 31-June 1

Clinton 60%
Obama 34%
Undecided 6%

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 56% to 39% among men (46% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 63% to 29%.

Clinton leads 57% to 38% among voters age 18 to 49 (46% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 63% to 30% among voters age 50 and older.

11% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 27% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.

For details, click on the R or D for each state in the column on the left under 2008 Presidential Polls.


Even if true, Senator Clinton would only net 5 pledged delegates tommorrow.

[grantcart]

1. both campaigns have said that SD has tightened

ARG on the other hand is on crack

[Politics_Guy25]

2. It really doesn't matter no matter what-n/t

[Tonimontana]

53. When did the Hillary campaign say the SD race has tightened?

?

[book_worm]

3. SD is close but there is no way Hillary is up by 26.

ARG has been spectacularly wrong on many ocassions this primary season.

[Politics_Guy25]

4. especially when Obama won North Dakota overwhelmingly

Hard to believe the 2 Dakotas would diverge so much and hard to believe Obama's lead would collapse by being up 12 in April to down 26, i.e., a 38 point drop.

[book_worm]

6. Also a Ras poll out of SD for General election has Obama down 10 to McCain and Hill down 12

if he were running that far behind in SD I would think Hill would be polling better than him vs. McCain.

[VotesForWomen]

52. you can forget about that poll cuz neither one of them will get over 38% in Nov.

[Rageneau]

7. North Carolina is apples to South Dakota's oranges.

Obama won big in So and No Carolina becaus both states have large black populations that turned out in record numbers and gave 90+% of their votes to BO.

No similar situation exists in So Dakota.

IOW, racism will not be a factor.

[tledford]

31. I think you meant "In other words, racism WILL be a factor."

37% of white Democrats in NC voted for Obama.

[Zynx]

8. North Dakota was a very lightly attended caucus.

South Dakota is a primary.

[VotesForWomen]

37. that explains a lot of O's 'support' in this region. SD is a closed primary, and Hill is ahead from

what i can tell.

[stray cat]

13. North Dakota is more prosperous and educated than SD

[Zynx]

14. South Dakota has slightly higher per capita income than North Dakota.

Education is basically identical.

[stray cat]

18. Sorry, I guess I was thinking from the cities versus rural

[VotesForWomen]

36. she may not be up by 26 but she's doing very well; i've been canvassing here. MT has more yuppie hi

hipsters than SD, so i suspect he would be doing better there than here.

[Occam Bandage]

5. Can't anyone put ARG to bed?

[Zynx]

9. Their last several polling outings haven't been that bad, actually.

[book_worm]

12. Really? It seems they consistently overvalue Hillary while undervaluing Obama:

North Carolina they had Obama up by 8 and he won by 18.
Indiana they had Hillary up by 8 and she won by 1.
Pennsylvania they had Hillary up by 16 and she won by 9.
Oregon they had Obama up by 5 and he won by 18

These were their final polls. I think SD will be close and Montana will be a bigger Obama win.

[Skidmore]

10. Something is afoot.

McAulliffe has been blowing gas for a couple of weeks now about how SD will be a "blowout"/a "big win" for Hillary. Now either the polling is really hinky or someone has been up to no good for some time now there.

[Cheap_Trick]

11. do they have the magic Diebold machines?

[butterfly77]

15. I have been thinking the same thing...

for weeks now...I have been watching them when they have been going on these shows and I began thinking about who is in charge of voting machines. I have been wondering this every since Pennsylvania..

Especially since they have been harping on let every vote count and she has the most votes (which she doesn't). I do not trust them, what was her meeting with Mellon Scaife and Rupert about...

[VotesForWomen]

39. yeah, people are catching on to the fact that O is a lightweight who has no chance of winning the GE

[VotesForWomen]

38. well, Hillary yard signs here in Rapid City outnumber O's by about 10 to 1. i've been canvassing he

here in the last few days and i think hillary is doing very well. what is 'afoot' is that people are finally getting wise to who Obama is, and also SD is a closed primary. that's a little different than an open caucus. you people who think the who country loves Obama really do not have the whole picture.

[kennetha]

16. If Hillary wins both South Dakota and Montana

That will blow a big hole in the middle of Obama's campaign. It will just cement the meme that he is unable to close the deal and put her away. There really will be no rationale for a massive move of the supers in his direction.

[book_worm]

17. It's not going to happen.

[VotesForWomen]

41. odds are she wins SD; not sure how's she's doing in MT. it shows the erosion in O's "support" in thi

this area. of course much of his alleged support out here came from anything-goes caucuses. SD is a closed primary. that's a little different. it gives you an idea who democrats *really* want as their nominee.

[rodeodance]

25. even if she comes close in MT --it will do the trick

[jsmirman]

28. What trick is that???

:crazy:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

33. Losing by a fraction less.

:eyes:

[Hoof Hearted]

34. Tomorrow will be a good day - a showcase of buyers remorse and BO's weakness

[muryan]

42. If you want to see buyer's remorse

You should check the polls from some of the states Hillary won, namely CA/NJ

[lojasmo]

19. Every state bordering SD and MT went....

Obama by greater than 24% except Iowa, which was 8%

ARG sucks. Also, who cares?

[VotesForWomen]

44. caucus vs. closed primary and a few months for voters to wise up. i guarantee you Hillary is doing

very well here in western SD.

[lojasmo]

57. I've been in western SD

I'm sure you're right.

[indimuse]

20. knr!

http://riverdaughter.wordpress.com/2008/06/02/rocky-mountain-high-what-happens-in-denver-if-hillary-wins-tomorrow/

http://americanresearchgroup.com/
http://americanresearchgroup.com/

[SeaLyons]

21. Go Hillary!!!

[rodeodance]

23. ~YES SHE CAN, YES WE CAN~~~~~~

[hendo]

46. Yes she can...

trash her own career.

[Peacetrain]

22. This is why I like caucuses

especially for people trying to get a candidate for their party..you are not as apt to get republicans trying to mess with the party.. there is a reason Obama does so well in caucuses .. they can't slip under the wire

[rodeodance]

24. Puff to caucauses

[Peacetrain]

27. Oh they are great political energizers!

Have you ever been to one?? a real grass roots support .. even the candidates that are not viable after the first head count are cheered, their supporters are cheered..

[jsmirman]

29. "Caucusing is EASY" and they are a "wonderful tradition"

just ask your candidate

:dunce:

[Peacetrain]

30. They are a wonderful tradition

and a time that people of one party actually spend time together and in our case after the vote is over, we talk about all kinds of political issues and what we want on state platforms..a town hall meeting really.. and hopefully someone bring cookies :)

[jsmirman]

32. I'm sure they are. Not sure where Hillary stands on them, tho. Was her first position

or her second, completely opposite position the one she really believes in?

:shrug:

[VotesForWomen]

49. OMG!!!!!!!!!!!! SD is a CLOSED PRIMARY!!! DEMS ONLY!!! caucuses are a free-for-all

where the bussed-in big mouths shout everybody else down.

[Buzz Clik]

26. One of the advantages of being the only show in town.

Neither state has been polled in weeks. Who's to argue?

[LiberalAndProud]

35. They have had spectacular success from the beginning.

December 24, 2007
POLL: ARG Iowa Caucus

A new American Research Group statewide survey of likely caucus goers in Iowa (conducted 12/20 through 12/23) finds:

Among 600 likely Democratic caucus goers, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads former Sen. John Edwards (34% to 20%) in a statewide survey; former Sen. Barack Obama trails at 19%, Sen. Joe Biden at 8%, Gov. Bill Richardson at 5%.
Among 600 likely Republican caucus goers, former Gov. Mike Huckabee runs at 23%, former Gov. Mitt Romney 21%, and Sen. John McCain 17% in a statewide primary; former Mayor Rudy Giuliani trails at 14%, Rep. Ron Paul at 10%.
All other candidates receive less than five percent each. The margin of error is four percent for both subgroups.
-- Eric Dienstfrey

[2rth2pwr]

40. Oh great. Obama limping to the finish.

[muryan]

43. I suppose you would rather see him 40 million in debt when the GE starts

Save the money, he doesn't need it. Tomorrow it ends

[2rth2pwr]

47. Why would you say I want that alternative?

[muryan]

48. "Limping"

He could pour money into SD if he wanted to, but hes not. Its not financially smart. If Hillary wins it then all the more power for her, she was down a few months ago

[2rth2pwr]

50. The people are speaking, since N Carolina and KY she is winning more votes and

more contests.

[muryan]

51. You're also looking at contests that demographically favor her

Much like after super tuesday were contests that Obama had some advantages in, mostly in the fact that Mark Penn wrote them off.

Hitting a double in the bottom of the ninth when you're down by two runs doesn't mean you won the game.

[Hippo_Tron]

45. ARG's Methodology:

"I asked 10 of my friends and 5.6 of them support Hillary"

[Tonimontana]

54. ARG has been very good after Pennsylvania

In Kentucky, ARG said Clinton +36 and Clinton won by 36%



In WV, ARG said Clinton by 43% and she won by 41%.

[Yukari Yakumo]

55. Then there's Indiana...

ARG Indiana (May 2-4)

HRC - 53%
Obama - 45%
Undec. - 2%

OOPS!

- - - - -

ARG NC (May 2-4)

HRC - 42%
Obama - 50%
Other - 4%
Undec. - 4%

Double OOPS!

[Tonimontana]

56. Hey, better than Survey USA in both Indiana, NC, as well as WV and KY

Better than the pollster with one of the best reputations, if not the best. That's a hell of an achievement, if you ask me.

[SoxFan]

58. ARG's methodology: Pull numbers out of my hindquarters

Unless someone has slipped me a few dollars under the table.